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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST May 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST May 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 16: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 4: Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi (Wicker), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future: None.

The Republicans have 5 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Mississippi (Hyde-Smith), Nevada, Tennessee, Texas.

Arizona Flake R –McSally and Ward are neck in neck for the GOP nomination with Joe Arpaio ten points behind those two. For the Democratic nomination, Kyrsten Sinema seems a foregone conclusion. Sinema will be Arizona’s new Democratic senator. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – Republican Governor Rick Scott has finally announced his bid for Nelson’s seat. Scott may make it close, but Nelson retains his seat. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – In an interesting twist, Braun has taken a polling lead over Todd Rokita with Luke Messer in third place for the Republican nomination.. Donnelly is unopposed. He will keep his seat regardless of whom the GOP nominates. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Mississippi special Hyde-Smith R – Mississippi will conduct a jungle primary on election day in which all the candidates names are listed on the ballot. If no one receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff election three weeks after between the top two. So far there are 2 Republicans, Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel along with 3 Democrats Toby Bartee, Mike Espy and John Shelton have announced and will be on the November ballot. The latest polling show Espy and Hyde-Smith tied at 33% each. There are your two for the runoff to be held 27 November. Hyde-Smith wins the runoff. Republican hold R 50 D 50

Missouri McCaskill D – Eleven Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. McCaskill will face six token challengers in the Democratic Primary. Hawley will face McCaskill in November. McCaskill retains her seat in a close one. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

Nevada Heller R – Heller has only a token challenger in the GOP primary. Jacky Rosen should win the Democratic nomination to face Heller in November. Rosen wins, although it will be very close. Democratic gain. R 49 D 51

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Kevin Cramer should beat Thomas O’Neill in the GOP primary. Heitkamp faces no challengers. She wins in November. Democratic Hold R 49 D 51

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Jim Renacci is the slight favorite. Brown will return to Washington. Democratic hold. R 49 D 51

Tennessee Corker R - Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it. Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee will win the Democratic nomination. Blackburn pulls out a barn burner in November. Republican Hold R 49 D 51

Texas Cruz R – Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke is giving Ted Cruz all he can handle at the moment. Cruz is up by just 3 in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. Which means Cruz may be up by as many as seven or trailing by one. Hence my addition of Texas to my watch list. Cruz will pull this one out in November, although it won’t be a cake walk. Republican Hold R 49 D 51

West Virginia Manchin D – There are six declared candidates for the Republican nomination. The battle is between Evan Jenkins and Patrick Morrisey with Don Blankenship having an outside shot at it. Regardless of who wins the Republican nomination, Manchin will retain his seat. Democratic hold R 49 D 51

This month I moved Mississippi special election (Hyde-Smith) from safe Republican to my watch list due to the special election will be a jungle primary. All candidates will be listed on the same ballot regardless of party. There will be no primary for this seat. I also moved Texas from Republican non-competitive to my watch list due to the shrinking polls which are now within the margin of error. Although I moved these two states to my watch list, there is no change in the results from last month. Democrats will have a net gain of two seats giving them a 51-49 advantage and control of the senate. With 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans, having the Democrats regain control of the senate is nothing short of dumbfounding. This shouldn’t be happening, but it is.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans now have 56 seats at risk of switching parties to 6 for the Democrats. From last month, this is an increase of nine seats for the Republicans while the Democrats decreased three. This isn’t good news to say the least for the GOP. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 33, 10 more than needed. This is a decrease of 3 net gain seats since last month for the Democrats. This is due to where the at risk seats are located, open vs. incumbent seats, the PVI of the district, fund raising along with polls. I realize adding nine more at risk seats to the GOP total, then having them lose 3 less seats doesn’t make sense when one looks just at the numbers. But being at risk doesn’t mean the they will lose those seats. It means the possibility exists, but then one must figure in the probability factor in that happening. The probability factor has dropped in more districts than it rose, thus leaving the GOP with three less loses than last month. Another way to look at the house is as of this forecast, the Republicans have 184 safe seats vs.189 safe seats for the Democrats. The rest are in play or at risk. The new House will have 228 Democrats to 207 Republicans.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
May Senate 49 R 51 D, House 207 R 228 D
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