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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST April 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST April 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 16: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 4: Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi (Wicker, Open), Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.

The Republicans have 3 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.

Arizona Flake R –McSally has taken the lead over Joe Arpaio with Kelli Ward in third place for the GOP nomination. But with approximately 30% of the voters undecided, this is still anyone’s race to win. For the Democratic nomination, it is all Kyrsten Sinema over token opposition. Arizona will have a new Democratic senator. Sinema in a close one. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – Republican Governor Rick Scott seems poised to enter the race for the Republican nomination this month and if he does, he will win the GOP nomination easily. But he will be facing Democrat Bill Nelson who currently in Florida has a 52% approval rating while only 26% disapprove of the Senator. The popular Nelson wins. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – Todd Rokita should top Luke Messer and Mike Braun for the Republican nomination.. Donnelly is unopposed and will squeak by in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. Hawley will face McCaskill in November. McCaskill has now raised well over 8 million to Hawley’s one. The money race could decide this one. Three months ago I had McCaskill winning, a month later I switched to Hawley and this month I’m going back to McCaskill to win it in a close one. Missouri is very much in flux. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

Nevada Heller R – The big news is that Danny Tarkanian has withdrew from the senate race. He will instead run for Nevada’s Congressional District three seat. This leaves Heller with a token challenger. Jacky Rosen should win the Democratic nomination to face Heller in November. Rosen will win, although it won’t be easy. Democratic gain. R 49 D 51

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Jim Renacci has become the solid favorite. Brown looks like a fairly easy winner in November. Democratic hold. R 49 D 51

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Kevin Cramer and Thomas O’Neill are fighting it out on the Republican side to face Heitkamp. Heitkamp will pull out a win in a very tight election. Democratic Hold R 49 D 51

Tennessee Corker R - Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it. Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee will win the Democratic nomination. Blackburn wins in November. Republican Hold R 49 D 51

West Virginia Manchin D – There are six declared candidates for the Republican nomination which is wide open. Don Blankenship, Evan Jenkins and Patrick Morrisey are the top three and the winner will be one of those three. It doesn’t matter who wins on the GOP side, Manchin in November. Democratic hold R 49 D 51

The big news is Missouri where I went back to the Democrat McCaskill keeping Missouri in Democratic hands. This switch will give the Democrats control of the senate. In minor news, I moved Maine and Pennsylvania from none completive but could become so to the safe Democrat column. The Missouri switch will give control of the senate to the Democrats with 51 D’s to 49 R’s. With 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 9 for the Republicans, having the Democrats regain control of the senate is much more than the first midterm blues. With as many Democratic seats up for re-election this year, if this was a normal midterm election, you would expect the Republicans would be gaining 5 seats or so instead of losing two. It seems to me, although open for debate, that losing the senate boils down to how much independents dislike Trump’s persona, his character and behavior as president. So much so they are flocking to the democrats this midterm.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 240 Republicans and 195 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans now have 47 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. This is an increase of two seats on the Republican side and one for the Democrats. There are also 37 current Republican house members not seeking re-election in November. An increase of six over last month. Those not seeking re-election are due to either retirement or running for higher office. These open seats are much easier for the opposing party to win or switch. The Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. They’ll gain 36, 13 more than needed. This is a net gain of 5 more seats since last month for the Democrats. The new House will have 231 Democrats to 204 Republicans. If the trend continues as it has since November of last year, we looking at a tidal wave for the Democrats. We might be talking as many as 50 seats pick up for the Democrats in a couple of months. In a normal congressional election there are usually 30-35 seat at risk of switching between both major parties. This year that total is already up to 56 with 47 of them being Republican seats and counting.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
March Senate 50 R 50 D, House 209 R 226 D
April Senate 49 R 51 D, House 204 R 231 D
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Comments

  1. <alt>doxygen's Avatar
    I actually think Scott has the edge over Nelson in FL. The article in the link nails some of the reasons. I personally consider him a sleezeball and an industry puppet, but he is pretty popular with many here.

    I've only been living here for a couple of years but all things considered it seems like a 50/50 D/R state to me. I do live in a red area, FWIW.
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/09/polit...m_source=quora
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Florida is pretty evenly divided. One of the reasons I think Nelson will probably win is right now he has a 53% approval rating vs. 25% disapproval. For a senator that is pretty popular. Then there is the Trump factor which seems to be firing up Democrats. Trump by the way has dropped to a 41% approval rating in Florida with 53% disapproval. This midterm has all the ear marks of being about Trump and less of the two candidates involved.

    Scott hadn't announced when I made this blog, so I basically concentrated on Nelson. Next month I'll have to take a good look at both. Even if this race is a toss up, I do think the Democrats will win most of the close races. In the senate races, usually close races aren't divided evenly, one party or the other takes most of them.

    I'll have a better idea next month. Thanks for the comment.

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