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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST March 2018

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PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST March 2018

Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.

The Republicans have 3 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.

Arizona Flake R –McSally has taken the lead over Joe Arpaio with Kelli Ward in third place for the GOP nomination. But with approximately 30% of the voters undecided, this is still anyone’s race to win. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is in the driver’s seat for her party’s nomination. Sinema is a slight favorite regardless of whom she faces. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – Everyone continues to hold their breath on whether Republican Governor Rick Scott will enter this race. If he doesn’t, Democrat Bill Nelson will cruise to re-election. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – In what looks like a crowded field for the Republican nomination, Todd Rokita should top Luke Messer. Donnelly will keep his seat in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. Hawley has solidified his position as the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Hawley over McCaskill in a close one. Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian, it’s anyone’s guess as to who comes out on top between these two. Jacky Rosen is the slight favorite among the four declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat. Rosen looks like a winner in November over whomever wins the GOP nomination. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Jim Renacci is the slight favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown has no challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown wins. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Republican Tom Campbell has withdrew his bid for the Republican nomination. This leaves Kevin Cramer as the one to beat for the nomination. Regardless, Heitkamp remains a slight favorite in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Tennessee Corker R Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it. Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee will most likely be her opponent. Blackburn wins in November. Republican Hold R 50 D 50

West Virginia Manchin D – There are six declared candidates for the Republican nomination vying for a chance to face Joe Manchin in November. It doesn’t matter who wins, Manchin in a cakewalk. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

On the senate side, lots of activity, but no change from last Month. The Republicans lose two, pick up one resulting in a 50-50 tie. VP Pence will be casting a lot of tie breaking votes, the senate will remain in GOP hands.


House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans now have 45 seats at risk of switching parties to 8 for the Democrats. In 6 of those 45 GOP held seats the Democrats are solid favorites. There are five new at risk seats for the Republicans while the Democratic at risk seats dropped by one from last month. There are also 31 current Republican house members not seeking re-election in November. An increase of two over last month. Those not seeking re-election are due to either retirement or running for higher office. These open seats are much easier for the opposing party to win or switch. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They’ll gain 32 accomplishing that task, 8 more than needed. This is a net gain of 4 more seats since last month for the Democrats. The new House will have 226 Democrats to 209 Republicans. We could be looking at a sea change or wave election for the Democrats in November with a gain of 40-50 seats. In a normal congressional election there are usually 30-35 seat at risk of switching between both major parties. This year that total is already up to 53 and counting.

History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
February Senate 50 R 50 D, House 213 R 222 D
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Comments

  1. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Great summation as always, pero! This one I found most noteworthy:

    Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. Hawley has solidified his position as the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Hawley over McCaskill in a close one. Republican gain. R 51 D 49


    What's your take on the Cochran situation? MS is now defending 2 GOP seats.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    I am surprised Cochran is leaving early although rumors about exactly that has been around for about a year. Mississippi is about as solid Republican as any state can be. Unless the GOP decides to nominate another Roy Moore, Aiken or Mourdock, some weird wacko, no democrat stands a chance.

    But one could have said the same thing about Alabama and the Republicans blew that. I can count at least six senate races since 2010 that the GOP had in the bag, that they blew by nominating some far out wacko. We'll see whom the governor appoints, then watch the primary. At this time Cockran's retirement means nothing as to a status change on the number of senators. Unless the GOP for for another wacko.

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