PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST November 2017
Currently there are 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 25 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 13: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 6: Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
The Republicans have no non-competitive seats that may become competitive at some time in the future.
The Republicans have 2 at risk seats this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada.
Arizona Flake R – Flake has withdrew. His withdrawal has made Kelli Ward the favorite to win the GOP nomination. Martha McSally may challenge her, but at this point it looks like the nomination is Ward’s to lose. There’s six candidates at the moment vying for the Democratic nomination. Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face Ward next November. I’m going with Sinema this month. Democratic gain R 51 D 49
Florida Nelson D – The big question remains the same as last month, will Governor Scott challenge Nelson for his senate seat next year? If Scott does challenge Nelson, the GOP has a 50-50 shot of picking up this seat. If not, Nelson wins. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. The top two are Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. It looks like these two will fight it out for the GOP nomination. I’m not sure either one can defeat Donnelly. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49
Missouri McCaskill D – McCaskill has a 46% approval rating in Missouri. Republicans think this makes her vulnerable. Four Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge McCaskill. There will be more to come. One must remember that six years ago, McCaskill looked like a dead duck until the Republicans chose Aiken to oppose her. McCaskill won easily. Will the GOP make the same mistake this time around? If and until the Republicans make the mistake of nominating another Aiken, I’m listing Missouri as a Republican gain. R 52 D 48
Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who has the early lead in the polls for the GOP nomination. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat and most likely 4 more Democrats will enter the race to challenge Heller. That is if Heller wins the Republican nomination. Heller or Tarkanian, I don’t think it matters who wins on the Republican side. Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 51 D 49
Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown should win a very close race. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp will have a token Democratic challenger for her seat, not a problem. On the GOP side state representative Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate. But there are an additional eight potential candidates for the Republican nomination. Heitkamp in a very close race. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49
West Virginia Manchin D -Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are 5 declared candidate with the potential of three more. Manchin will win easily. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
No change from last month. Considering the Democrats have 25 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, it’s almost impossible for me to envision the Republicans having a net loss of one seat. That goes against all odds. But that is the way I am calling it. Now stay tuned, there is a very long way to go and changes will occur.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 36 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. 3 additional seats has been added to the Republican at risk total since last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They will fall just short. Even though the Republicans added 3 additional seats to their at risk seat column, I’m staying with the same 20 seat gain for the Democrats I had them at last month. The new House will have 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
Currently there are 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 25 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 13: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Montana, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 6: Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming
The Republicans have no non-competitive seats that may become competitive at some time in the future.
The Republicans have 2 at risk seats this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada.
Arizona Flake R – Flake has withdrew. His withdrawal has made Kelli Ward the favorite to win the GOP nomination. Martha McSally may challenge her, but at this point it looks like the nomination is Ward’s to lose. There’s six candidates at the moment vying for the Democratic nomination. Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face Ward next November. I’m going with Sinema this month. Democratic gain R 51 D 49
Florida Nelson D – The big question remains the same as last month, will Governor Scott challenge Nelson for his senate seat next year? If Scott does challenge Nelson, the GOP has a 50-50 shot of picking up this seat. If not, Nelson wins. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. The top two are Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. It looks like these two will fight it out for the GOP nomination. I’m not sure either one can defeat Donnelly. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49
Missouri McCaskill D – McCaskill has a 46% approval rating in Missouri. Republicans think this makes her vulnerable. Four Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge McCaskill. There will be more to come. One must remember that six years ago, McCaskill looked like a dead duck until the Republicans chose Aiken to oppose her. McCaskill won easily. Will the GOP make the same mistake this time around? If and until the Republicans make the mistake of nominating another Aiken, I’m listing Missouri as a Republican gain. R 52 D 48
Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian who has the early lead in the polls for the GOP nomination. There are 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat and most likely 4 more Democrats will enter the race to challenge Heller. That is if Heller wins the Republican nomination. Heller or Tarkanian, I don’t think it matters who wins on the Republican side. Nevada will be a Democratic gain. R 51 D 49
Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown should win a very close race. Democratic hold. R 51 D 49
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp will have a token Democratic challenger for her seat, not a problem. On the GOP side state representative Tom Campbell is the only declared candidate. But there are an additional eight potential candidates for the Republican nomination. Heitkamp in a very close race. Democratic Hold R 51 D 49
West Virginia Manchin D -Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Nothing to worry about for Joe. On the GOP side there are 5 declared candidate with the potential of three more. Manchin will win easily. Democratic hold R 51 D 49
No change from last month. Considering the Democrats have 25 seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the GOP, it’s almost impossible for me to envision the Republicans having a net loss of one seat. That goes against all odds. But that is the way I am calling it. Now stay tuned, there is a very long way to go and changes will occur.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 36 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. 3 additional seats has been added to the Republican at risk total since last month. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They will fall just short. Even though the Republicans added 3 additional seats to their at risk seat column, I’m staying with the same 20 seat gain for the Democrats I had them at last month. The new House will have 221 Republicans to 214 Democrats.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D