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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 May 2020

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 May 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 10: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 2: Alabama, Michigan.

Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – McSally has 2 Republican challengers for her seat. She’ll win easily. On the Democratic side, former Astronaut Mark Kelly and Mohammad Arif, businessman and perennial candidate are vying for a chance to take on McSally. Kelly also wins easily and beat McSally in November. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville advanced to a runoff on the Republican side which was delayed until July. Tuberville is a very slight favorite. Jones ceded any chance of reelection when he voted Guilty in Trump’s senate trial. Trump has a 65% approval rating in Alabama. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – Former Governor John Hickenlooper will win the Democratic primary over Andrew Romanoff and then easily defeat Gardner. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – 7 Democrats have declared to challenge Perdue. Jon Ossoff should come out the winner, although he might need a runoff to do so. Perdue wins in November. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collings are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats along 11 others who will all appear on the November ballot. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls with Collins at 30% and the other three in the high teens. Everyone else in single digits. All the November election will determine is who faces Collins in the January runoff. Collins wins the runoff in January 2021. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – 4 Democrats are in the race for the democratic nomination to challenge Ernst. Ernst wins. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. 3 Democrats and 8 Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination for this open seat. Republican Kris Kobach is the favorite to win the GOP nomination with Barbara Bollier winning on the Democratic side. This should be a cake walk for the Republican, but the polls put this as a very close race. I’m sticking with the Republican to win this seat. Only because this is Kansas. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Kentucky McConnell R – There are now 7 Republicans challenging McConnell for the GOP nomination along with 10 Democrats vying for the right to challenge McConnell in November. McConnell should pull it out in his primary and McGrath wins on the Democratic side. The three most recent polls show McConnell and McGrath tied. McConnell in a squeaker. Republican hold 52 R 48 D

Maine Collins R – With Maine going to ranked voting, Democrat Susan Gideon will defeat Collins. Democratic pick up 51 R 49 D

Michigan Peters D – Only two GOP challengers have declared to challenge Peters. John James should be that Republican. Peters is poised to make this race a runaway. He leads by 10 points in the two latest polls. If Peters maintains his 10-point lead next month, I’ll move Michigan into the safe Democratic column. Democratic hold 51 R 49 D

Montana Daines R – It will be former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock vs. Republican incumbent Steve Daines in November. This race is a pure tossup. I usually in cases like this go with the incumbent. But Montana’s history of electing Democratic senators while going for the GOP presidential candidate by 20 points or more has me leaning Bullock. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

North Carolina Tillis R – This is another pure tossup race between incumbent Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham. In this one, I’m back favoring the incumbent as North Carolina doesn’t have Montana’s history. Republican hold 50 R, 50 D.

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 7 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 4 Democrats. It’s anyone’s guess as to who the nominees will be from either party as no polling has taken place in Tennessee. It doesn’t matter, Tennessee stays Republican regardless of who the candidates are. Republican hold. R 50 D 50

No changes from last month. Although Democrats Peters, Michigan, Kelly Arizona have increased their leads to comfortable margins. Republicans McConnell, Kentucky and Tillis, North Carolina remain razor thin favorites in pure tossup races. Not good news for the GOP. The senate will be tied 50-50. Who controls the senate will be decided by who wins the presidency? The Vice President will cast the deciding vote in case of a tie.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. That’s the impossible dream. The Democrats have 29 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, down one from last Month. The Republicans have 17, also down one. The Republicans will have a net gain of 5 seats, same as last month. This leaves the House having 231 Democrats, 204 Republicans. The Democrats win MI-3, Amish’s seat who is the only independent in the House.

Presidency

Three big changes in the Biden vs. Trump presidential Race. Popular vote, both candidates have dipped, Biden by a 1.3 points and Trump by 2.9 points from last month. This month’s popular vote shows Biden at 48.3%, Trump 42.4%. Other or third-party candidates account for both major party candidates dropping. The changes, Arizona and Florida which last month I had going to Trump, now have tilted to Biden. Trump however has taken Ohio away from Biden. The final electoral college tally for this month is Biden 330, Trump 208. How this coronavirus pandemic will affect this race is an unknown factor. Too early to tell. Although at the beginning of the month it seemed to benefit Trump, but when the month was over, it was back to normal stats or should I say numbers.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.8%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
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Comments

  1. Trippy Trekker's Avatar
    Awesome work! I look forward to reviewing each new forecast!
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Trippy Trekker
    Awesome work! I look forward to reviewing each new forecast!
    At the presidential level and in the House races, they have remained fairly static. But there is a mild trend in the senate that seems to be going the Democrats way.

    All the close races are from the Republican side. If everything goes right for the democrats, they could have a net gain of six which would leave them with a 53-47 advantage. I doubt that will happen, most likely outcome, 51-49 democratic.
  3. imagep's Avatar
    I'm thinking that there will be another round of corona recovery bills. Republicans want to buy votes and to make sure our economy recovers before the election, and Democrats will never vote against spending. I suspect this will favor republicans a bit, especially after democrats hold up the republican written bill to make amendments and take flack for "stopping vital funding".
  4. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by imagep
    I'm thinking that there will be another round of corona recovery bills. Republicans want to buy votes and to make sure our economy recovers before the election, and Democrats will never vote against spending. I suspect this will favor republicans a bit, especially after democrats hold up the republican written bill to make amendments and take flack for "stopping vital funding".
    Possible, but the bills so far hasn't help the GOP nor Trump. With Trump I think it is more about his obnoxious, uncouth personality along with his very unpresidential behavior. He won't in my opinion be able to buy reelection. As for the senators, the Democrats have come up with very good candidates. They're not just throwing anyone up their and keeping their fingers crossed. If they lose, they'll lose with the best they have to offer. Hickenlooper, Colorado, Bullock, Montana, Kelly, Arizona, Cunningham, North Carolina, Gideon, Maine and McGrath Kentucky all give the Democrats a good shot at winning. I'm not saying all will win, but the Dems have put up their best.

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