Blog Comments

  1. trixare4kids's Avatar
    I'm sorry, Nate.
    Your uncle is lucky to have such a caring nephew.

    Trix
  2. X Factor's Avatar
    My dad’s been in the hospital since Tuesday so I hear you, Nate. If you ever want to chat about something other than politics just let me know.
  3. Luther's Avatar
    Well, you know what they say,


    So Bowl away

    One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.
  4. Old 'N Chill's Avatar
    OlNate, I have been missing you and wondering about you. Very sorry to hear about your uncle and can understand your need to be with family and off the forum for a while. Please take care of yourself Nate, you are a good person and I do care about your well-being. Wishing the best for you and your family. Hugs.
  5. Lovebug's Avatar
    Life has a strange way of telling you what is important. Lots of hugs coming your way. Keep you chin up. If you need a shoulder...
  6. Dragonfly's Avatar
    Yo My Friend!!! I just invoked your name today. Before I saw this blog.

    Return when you can

    Peace
  7. TheGoverness's Avatar
    Hey, take all the time you need. Real life comes first.
  8. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Trippy Trekker
    Thank you for your thorough and comprehensive monthly forecasts! I look forward to reviewing each new one!

    Time and again in other threads you reference the importance of the Independent voting block. Your comments about Independents and your disdain for our current two major party system have increased my curiosity about the potential of tapping into this lurking source of power. Viva the Independents! So I believe he or she who can galvanize the largest share of Independents has the best chance of shaping the future political landscape.



    Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia
    I think you got it. Gallup is an invaluable source when it comes to party affiliation as is Pew Research. Right now I'm looking at what I would classify as swings states down to 3. That number could change, it's dynamic, but the rest look at least 60% or better to go to one or the other major party candidate. The three, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina as of today. A change from my 1 Feb forecast which shows the dynamics. I dropped Arizona out of the swing state and added Wisconsin. They probably will be more changes when my 1 Mar forecast is due.
  9. Robertinfremont's Avatar
    hold that hope you can post here when hopefully the basement gets rules declaring no cursing at posters.
  10. Luther's Avatar
    There's an old saying that I think fits well here


    'If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen'?
  11. Hawkeye10's Avatar
    People suck now, compared to our ancestors the Modern Morons are thin gruel.....But I want to tell you two things:

    1) There are a few highly educated Truth Tellers such as myself circulating, and you are free to make use of us.

    2) Dont give up, just as a dedicated student can learn and get into university from the worst of the big city Lefty Run schools you can get better here or anywhere else.....you are not defined by the low quality of the people who surround you....you do have free will.....you can do what ever you want even when the the quality of the herd sucks....as it does now.
  12. Hawkeye10's Avatar
    Hey.....I was gone for a long time too....I really cant understand what you were thinking doing "Salt Steaks" but otherwise I have liked your posts, and your intestinal fortitude.

    You have been appreciated at least by me.
  13. Renae's Avatar
    This is t a site for debate, if you haven't figured that out yet
  14. Captain Adverse's Avatar
    The best thing to do is remain balanced and remember that you don't know them and they don't know you. They are just reflections of the words they use to express themselves in the Forum.

    Words can only have the effect on you that YOU give them.

    I wrote a blog myself on the subject, putting the Forum on notice that I will be using my right to free expression to put anyone who consistently attacks me personally rather than addressing my arguments on ignore.

    I joined in June 2013, and only started doing this in late 2018. Prior to that I had ZERO (0) members on ignore. Sadly, as of today I have over 50 members on ignore. It seems a lot, but in reality it consists of the "usual suspects" who have no respect for anyone who disagrees with their point of view. Thus it is small loss, because they are not "debating" anything anyway. It is a sad sign of the times, but it is what it is.

    Now I am not suggesting you need to do this. Just that it is one option to reduce the "noise" and allow you to focus on members who actually have an open mind. Those who will argue without rancor...agreeing to disagree and then move on to debate rationally on another topic.
    Updated 02-15-20 at 07:39 PM by Captain Adverse
  15. swing_voter's Avatar
    You can stay calm and remind the poster to attack your ideas and not attack you.
  16. durtbag's Avatar
    I myself almost got caught up in this negativity that you mention, but I looked out the window and off I went to bigger and better things. weather is decent now and pecking away my days on this keyboard has been and will be fewer as the days get longer. some things that I have read on this site makes me realize why politics is a topic that I ignored. I enjoyed your blog and will look for more as time will allow. thanks for reminding me that other people think with the "mind", and not their fingers!
  17. Trippy Trekker's Avatar
    Thank you for your thorough and comprehensive monthly forecasts! I look forward to reviewing each new one!

    Time and again in other threads you reference the importance of the Independent voting block. Your comments about Independents and your disdain for our current two major party system have increased my curiosity about the potential of tapping into this lurking source of power. Viva the Independents! So I believe he or she who can galvanize the largest share of Independents has the best chance of shaping the future political landscape.

    Current party strength
    Gallup
    As of December 2019, Gallup polling found that 28% of Americans identified as Democrat, 28% identified as Republican, and 41% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 43% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 45% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

    In 2018, the number of competitive states dropped down to 10, the lowest number since 2008. From 2017 to 2018, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to lean Democratic, while West Virginia, Louisiana, and Indiana moved from competitive to lean Republican, and Nebraska moved from lean Republican to competitive.[4]

    As of 2018, Massachusetts was the most Democratic state, with 56% of residents identifying as Democrat, while only 27% of residents identified as Republican. Wyoming was the most Republican state, with 59% of residents identifying as Republican, and only 25% of residents identifying as Democrat.
    Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia
  18. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky
    Thank you very much again, for the analysis.

    So, 5 Dem House seats turned safe, leaving a Dem loss of -5 or 6. That sounds about right on the surface, though I'm thinking the general motivation of the Dems this year will be strong. So I agree they would lose no more than 5 or 6, but it could be less.

    Senate ends-up Republicans losing 1. Yeah, sounds about right. Though Collins may have a tougher time then we think, so it could be Republicans losing 2. Regardless of who loses specifically, I'm looking for the Dems to flip 1 or 2, but not the body.

    I like your Electoral College numbers, but cannot do a hard analysis like yours. I do not believe Trump will prevail in 1, 2, or 3 of the razor thin wins he had in 2016 like MI. But while I see Dem motivation, I have a very hard time to take the election away from an incumbent during peacetime with a good economy. So I won't call it except to say I think it will be close.
    Motivation was on the side of the Democrats. Where it has been since Trump won. Impeachment may have even up motivation factor though. We won't know for sure until a few weeks after the trial. I think Speaker Pelosi knew of the change in GOP enthusiasm for Trump could change if she went through with impeachment. That in my opinion is why she tried to avoid it as long as she could. So we'll wait and see.

    I agree with you on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I don't see Trump winning those three states for a second time. Hillary took them for granted and didn't campaign much in any of them. Hillary never visited Wisconsin. I don't think whoever is the Democratic nominee will make that same mistake. Which means Trump will have to find a different route, different states.

    The senate is very much in flux. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Democrats pick up any where between 1-5 seats. The house, being the Democrats now have to defend 235 seats instead of the 190 they had in 2018, that makes a huge difference. Also there are those 31 seats out of the 40 the Democrats picked up in 2018 that Trump won those districts in 2016. Voting for the articles of impeachment put a lot of those 31 seats at risk. The question is has those voters in those 31 districts soured on Trump or are they out for revenge for the impeachment vote? Time will tell, it's to early to say for sure one way or the other.

    With the drop of 5 seats from the at risk column, they may indeed have soured on Trump. At least some. We'll see as time goes by, so stay tuned.
  19. Chomsky's Avatar
    Thank you very much again, for the analysis.

    So, 5 Dem House seats turned safe, leaving a Dem loss of -5 or 6. That sounds about right on the surface, though I'm thinking the general motivation of the Dems this year will be strong. So I agree they would lose no more than 5 or 6, but it could be less.

    Senate ends-up Republicans losing 1. Yeah, sounds about right. Though Collins may have a tougher time then we think, so it could be Republicans losing 2. Regardless of who loses specifically, I'm looking for the Dems to flip 1 or 2, but not the body.

    I like your Electoral College numbers, but cannot do a hard analysis like yours. I do not believe Trump will prevail in 1, 2, or 3 of the razor thin wins he had in 2016 like MI. But while I see Dem motivation, I have a very hard time to take the election away from an incumbent during peacetime with a good economy. So I won't call it except to say I think it will be close.
  20. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky
    Damn - just found this.

    This is a nice piece of work, Perotista. I can't think of a better member for the job. Thank you very much for this.

    I'm going to see if I can figure-out how to subscribe or follow your future releases somehow.

    I may come back later to make some specific comments, if you don't mind?
    I'll be posting these on the first of every month up to and including 1 Nov. At least the first of every month is my target date. I've started on my 1 Feb forecast, that one will be ready on the first. Looking back at the one's I did for 2018, 2016 and on back, the history portion is what I find the most interesting. Seeing how things change from month to month leading up to the election regardless of the election cycle.
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