Blog Comments

  1. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Thanks for all of your efforts Pero! I will watch for your updates with interest.
  2. American's Avatar


    John Kerry <<< complete asshole
  3. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by ChezC3
    One of the few people I can disagree with and still appreciate your insight. House and Presidency is wrong in my ever humble opinion. As far as the latter is concerned I'm not entirely convinced that there will not be some shenanigans which change that.

    But good analysis as usual
    There are always shenanigans as you put. Most of the time behind the scenes. I do think we, the U.S. has as fair elections as both political parties allow them to be fair. Each is always look for a political advantage, each will use it if they think they can get away with it.

    As for the House, most base their predictions on the generic congressional vote which at this time the Democrats hold a 47-41 advantage. That would translate into an approximate 30 seat pick up. I don't use that, I use the number of competitive seats instead. Besides the generic congressional poll is national and the House is decided district by district. One big difference between 2018 and 2020 is the Republicans had to defend 240 seats in 18, but 199 this time. The Democrats had 195 to defend in 18, 235 this time. That does make a difference.

    2018 was very unusual, a year in which the GOP had 40 retirements, open seats and 62 competitive or at risk seats. The democrats did have 18 retirements, open seats, but only 8 competitive or at risk seats. I don't see that this time around. The Democrats have more competitive seats, at risk seats up than does the GOP. At least as of now.

    The presidency, using the generic democrat isn't ideal. There are factors that the generic doesn't let you factor in. But it is a safer bet than choosing Biden, Warren or Sanders not know which one it will be. FYI, the Generic Presidential vote shows Democratic candidate 49% Trump 41%. Question 51

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...nTabReport.pdf

    I do have my own formula for the popular vote along with picking states for one or the other major party candidate. The one thing no prognosticator or pundit, forecaster can ever be sure of is voter turnout. That is an educated guess or as some would call it, a SWAG. Scientific Wild Ass Guess.
  4. ChezC3's Avatar
    One of the few people I can disagree with and still appreciate your insight. House and Presidency is wrong in my ever humble opinion. As far as the latter is concerned I'm not entirely convinced that there will not be some shenanigans which change that.

    But good analysis as usual
  5. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    NH has a new voter law which could make voting not possible for 6000 out of state college students. Keep in mind the 2016 presidential and senate races were closer than that. Could play havoc in 2020.

    Federal judge denies request to block voter residency law for New Hampshire presidential primary
    Several years ago, Georgia passed a law close to, but not exact. Basically, an out of state student living in a dorm on a college campus can't claim that as his official bode of residence. Which come election time, enough were so doing to make it a problem.

    Allowing that made it possible for a student to vote twice. Once by absentee from his home town in whatever state and once more in Georgia by claiming his dorm as his official residence.

    I suppose it could be for 8 or 9 months out of the year. Then the student goes home for the summer, comes back the next year, then gets a new room in a different dorm.

    I was ambivalent to it all. Georgia also has a law that states any out of state resident moving to Georgia must obtain a Georgia drivers licence. So there was an exemption to the dorm law if the student had a Georgia drivers licence.

    that made sense to me.
  6. pilot16's Avatar
    NH has a new voter law which could make voting not possible for 6000 out of state college students. Keep in mind the 2016 presidential and senate races were closer than that. Could play havoc in 2020.

    Federal judge denies request to block voter residency law for New Hampshire presidential primary
  7. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Love the blog! Cant add much except some are wondering how the new voting law in NH might affect 2020 and the candidates. Also some are expecting a closer than usual senate race here. Shaheen is still the heavy favorite but could be facing either a Brigadier General who is popular or Corey Lewandowski. Is going to be a hoot!
    You hit on the one thing that makes making early predictions more or less an educated guess. Shaheen, without knowing who she'll face looks like a shoe in. Very solid or safe.

    As for NH new election or voting law, I haven't heard a thing about it. Feel free to fill me in. All I can say is to expect a lot of changes as time goes by. I like to do these forecasts a month at a time. I can adjust them to fit the circumstances and situations as they change from month to month.
  8. pilot16's Avatar
    Love the blog! Cant add much except some are wondering how the new voting law in NH might affect 2020 and the candidates. Also some are expecting a closer than usual senate race here. Shaheen is still the heavy favorite but could be facing either a Brigadier General who is popular or Corey Lewandowski. Is going to be a hoot!
  9. Angel's Avatar
  10. Angel's Avatar
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    crickets
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  11. Angel's Avatar
    Dear fellow members,
    If your favorite insect is not represented in the poems posted in this volume, please post a comment in which you identify said insect and I'll try to include it.
    Regards,
    Angel
  12. Angel's Avatar
    "lirica e romantica"
    Il Progresso Italo-Americano


    [Editor's Note: "lyrical and romantic"]
  13. Angel's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertU
    While walking at the Premium Outlets here in Vacaville, I would sometimes see a praying mantis on the wide sidewalk, several feet from any vegetation and no other bugs in site. I wondered what it was doing there.
    Yes, the one I saw was on a wall, alongside grass, but not in the grass where its camouflage would have made it impossible to spot of course, but where it might hope to be preying. Just "praying" perhaps.
  14. RobertU's Avatar
    While walking at the Premium Outlets here in Vacaville, I would sometimes see a praying mantis on the wide sidewalk, several feet from any vegetation and no other bugs in site. I wondered what it was doing there.
  15. Angel's Avatar
  16. Angel's Avatar
    "I've always been fond of moths. As far back as I can remember.
    This fondness can't be explained, and shouldn't be explained.
    But I do remember enjoying the smell of moth balls in my grandmother's bureau.
    My God! I've just made another poem! I can't seem to help it!"

    —Angel Trismegistus
  17. Angel's Avatar
    "An American Aesop"
    New York Journal-American
  18. Angel's Avatar
    "Far Out!"
    The East Village Other
  19. Angel's Avatar
    The name derives from the Greek word meaning "prophet" or "seer."
    And for the folded forelimbs of the creature's prayer-like posture.
  20. Angel's Avatar
    "Charming!"
    New York Daily Mirror
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