Blog Comments

  1. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by tres borrachos
    Wow, Pero. Brilliant analysis as always. It's been interesting watching the change month over month. Thank you as always for your hard work.
    The changes is what makes it interesting. To watch how people change their voting habits one at a time, slowly, usually. Then a big bang like this month. Which that big bang may not be over.
  2. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by nota bene
    Looks bleak at this point for the GOP, doesn't it, Pero?
    It does, but I always like to remind folks, it's early. The trend this last month has been all Democratic. If it continues, Trump doesn't find a way to reverse it, I wouldn't be surprise if Biden wins Georgia and Texas along with Georgia's two senate seats up this cycle.

    What this indicates is the midterms were no fluke. Independents are deserting Trump, which he has never courted or has tried to expand his base.
  3. tres borrachos's Avatar
    Wow, Pero. Brilliant analysis as always. It's been interesting watching the change month over month. Thank you as always for your hard work.
  4. nota bene's Avatar
    Looks bleak at this point for the GOP, doesn't it, Pero?
  5. Perotista's Avatar
    You're most welcome, this is a labor of love.
  6. Trippy Trekker's Avatar
    Once again, thank you for this latest monthly update!
  7. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by imagep
    I'm thinking that there will be another round of corona recovery bills. Republicans want to buy votes and to make sure our economy recovers before the election, and Democrats will never vote against spending. I suspect this will favor republicans a bit, especially after democrats hold up the republican written bill to make amendments and take flack for "stopping vital funding".
    Possible, but the bills so far hasn't help the GOP nor Trump. With Trump I think it is more about his obnoxious, uncouth personality along with his very unpresidential behavior. He won't in my opinion be able to buy reelection. As for the senators, the Democrats have come up with very good candidates. They're not just throwing anyone up their and keeping their fingers crossed. If they lose, they'll lose with the best they have to offer. Hickenlooper, Colorado, Bullock, Montana, Kelly, Arizona, Cunningham, North Carolina, Gideon, Maine and McGrath Kentucky all give the Democrats a good shot at winning. I'm not saying all will win, but the Dems have put up their best.
  8. imagep's Avatar
    I'm thinking that there will be another round of corona recovery bills. Republicans want to buy votes and to make sure our economy recovers before the election, and Democrats will never vote against spending. I suspect this will favor republicans a bit, especially after democrats hold up the republican written bill to make amendments and take flack for "stopping vital funding".
  9. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Trippy Trekker
    Awesome work! I look forward to reviewing each new forecast!
    At the presidential level and in the House races, they have remained fairly static. But there is a mild trend in the senate that seems to be going the Democrats way.

    All the close races are from the Republican side. If everything goes right for the democrats, they could have a net gain of six which would leave them with a 53-47 advantage. I doubt that will happen, most likely outcome, 51-49 democratic.
  10. Trippy Trekker's Avatar
    Awesome work! I look forward to reviewing each new forecast!
  11. Trippy Trekker's Avatar
    For those of you interested in data-based federal level election forecasts, I highly recommend using Perotista's monthly Forecast Reports!

    No one on this site, IMO, provides a more easy-to-use, highly accurate comprehensive analysis of upcoming House, Senate and Presidential elections.

    Perotista's thorough research, lifetime disdain for the American two major party system and status as an unabashed, non-partisan Independent adds significant credibility to his monthly forecasts!

    Thank you Perotista for the incredible value you add to the DP Forum!
  12. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by pilot16
    Surprised to see you changed NH for the general. Never know what to think here. Signs all over for Trump. I think Mayor Pete would have won easily here against Trump but if its Sanders or Biden I dont know. Sanders will lose the moderates and libertarians and Biden could lose the youth here as we have the highest student loan debt in the US. I would guess its a coin flip too. Also wanted to add that some are claiming Shaheen could be in trouble in the senate if Bolduc wins the primary. He is a Brigadier General and very popular. One of Shaheens biggest assets here was her popularity with veterans. If Bolduc becomes the nominee, she might have a fight on her hands.
    I appreciate the info. The main reason I switched NH to Trump was UNH, AtlasIntel and McLaughlin & Associates polls showed Trump taking the lead over all Democratic candidates. Not by much, between 2-6 points depending on the candidate. All Feb polls. In Jan all the Democratic candidates had the lead. I don't know what caused the changed, but a change did occur. It could easily revert back to the democrats next month. But we'll see on that.

    The senate races are still sorting themselves out. With the data available Shaheen looks pretty safe at this time. UNH Feb polls shows Shaheen over Bolduc by a 49-30 margin. a 10 point or more difference or gap places NH in the safe category. It may or may not tighten. Most of the figures I use up to now, there really hasn't been any campaigning or direct challenges from one candidate to the other. Even so, the numbers usually don't change much unless there is a big mistake or an unforeseen event or happening takes place.

    But I'll keep an eye on the NH senate race, you can be sure of that.
  13. pilot16's Avatar
    Surprised to see you changed NH for the general. Never know what to think here. Signs all over for Trump. I think Mayor Pete would have won easily here against Trump but if its Sanders or Biden I dont know. Sanders will lose the moderates and libertarians and Biden could lose the youth here as we have the highest student loan debt in the US. I would guess its a coin flip too. Also wanted to add that some are claiming Shaheen could be in trouble in the senate if Bolduc wins the primary. He is a Brigadier General and very popular. One of Shaheens biggest assets here was her popularity with veterans. If Bolduc becomes the nominee, she might have a fight on her hands.
  14. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Linc
    Only 11 governors this term, with DEMs trying to hold MT-toss-up and NC-lean D. DE and WA are safe for D’s. R’s are likely with VT-Scott and NH-Sununu. Safe are IN, MO, ND, UT and WV.

    I like to look at overlaps and upward and downward coattails. Between governors and senators, that would be NH, MT, and the especially crucial NC, where the RNC has its convention in Charlotte Aug. 24-27. DNC has its convention July 13-16 in Milwaukee.
    North Carolina seems tight in all races for 2020. Flip a coin.
  15. Linc's Avatar
    Only 11 governors this term, with DEMs trying to hold MT-toss-up and NC-lean D. DE and WA are safe for D’s. R’s are likely with VT-Scott and NH-Sununu. Safe are IN, MO, ND, UT and WV.

    I like to look at overlaps and upward and downward coattails. Between governors and senators, that would be NH, MT, and the especially crucial NC, where the RNC has its convention in Charlotte Aug. 24-27. DNC has its convention July 13-16 in Milwaukee.
  16. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Trippy Trekker
    Thank you for your thorough and comprehensive monthly forecasts! I look forward to reviewing each new one!

    Time and again in other threads you reference the importance of the Independent voting block. Your comments about Independents and your disdain for our current two major party system have increased my curiosity about the potential of tapping into this lurking source of power. Viva the Independents! So I believe he or she who can galvanize the largest share of Independents has the best chance of shaping the future political landscape.



    Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia
    I think you got it. Gallup is an invaluable source when it comes to party affiliation as is Pew Research. Right now I'm looking at what I would classify as swings states down to 3. That number could change, it's dynamic, but the rest look at least 60% or better to go to one or the other major party candidate. The three, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina as of today. A change from my 1 Feb forecast which shows the dynamics. I dropped Arizona out of the swing state and added Wisconsin. They probably will be more changes when my 1 Mar forecast is due.
  17. Trippy Trekker's Avatar
    Thank you for your thorough and comprehensive monthly forecasts! I look forward to reviewing each new one!

    Time and again in other threads you reference the importance of the Independent voting block. Your comments about Independents and your disdain for our current two major party system have increased my curiosity about the potential of tapping into this lurking source of power. Viva the Independents! So I believe he or she who can galvanize the largest share of Independents has the best chance of shaping the future political landscape.

    Current party strength
    Gallup
    As of December 2019, Gallup polling found that 28% of Americans identified as Democrat, 28% identified as Republican, and 41% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 43% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 45% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

    In 2018, the number of competitive states dropped down to 10, the lowest number since 2008. From 2017 to 2018, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to lean Democratic, while West Virginia, Louisiana, and Indiana moved from competitive to lean Republican, and Nebraska moved from lean Republican to competitive.[4]

    As of 2018, Massachusetts was the most Democratic state, with 56% of residents identifying as Democrat, while only 27% of residents identified as Republican. Wyoming was the most Republican state, with 59% of residents identifying as Republican, and only 25% of residents identifying as Democrat.
    Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia
  18. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky
    Thank you very much again, for the analysis.

    So, 5 Dem House seats turned safe, leaving a Dem loss of -5 or 6. That sounds about right on the surface, though I'm thinking the general motivation of the Dems this year will be strong. So I agree they would lose no more than 5 or 6, but it could be less.

    Senate ends-up Republicans losing 1. Yeah, sounds about right. Though Collins may have a tougher time then we think, so it could be Republicans losing 2. Regardless of who loses specifically, I'm looking for the Dems to flip 1 or 2, but not the body.

    I like your Electoral College numbers, but cannot do a hard analysis like yours. I do not believe Trump will prevail in 1, 2, or 3 of the razor thin wins he had in 2016 like MI. But while I see Dem motivation, I have a very hard time to take the election away from an incumbent during peacetime with a good economy. So I won't call it except to say I think it will be close.
    Motivation was on the side of the Democrats. Where it has been since Trump won. Impeachment may have even up motivation factor though. We won't know for sure until a few weeks after the trial. I think Speaker Pelosi knew of the change in GOP enthusiasm for Trump could change if she went through with impeachment. That in my opinion is why she tried to avoid it as long as she could. So we'll wait and see.

    I agree with you on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I don't see Trump winning those three states for a second time. Hillary took them for granted and didn't campaign much in any of them. Hillary never visited Wisconsin. I don't think whoever is the Democratic nominee will make that same mistake. Which means Trump will have to find a different route, different states.

    The senate is very much in flux. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Democrats pick up any where between 1-5 seats. The house, being the Democrats now have to defend 235 seats instead of the 190 they had in 2018, that makes a huge difference. Also there are those 31 seats out of the 40 the Democrats picked up in 2018 that Trump won those districts in 2016. Voting for the articles of impeachment put a lot of those 31 seats at risk. The question is has those voters in those 31 districts soured on Trump or are they out for revenge for the impeachment vote? Time will tell, it's to early to say for sure one way or the other.

    With the drop of 5 seats from the at risk column, they may indeed have soured on Trump. At least some. We'll see as time goes by, so stay tuned.
  19. Chomsky's Avatar
    Thank you very much again, for the analysis.

    So, 5 Dem House seats turned safe, leaving a Dem loss of -5 or 6. That sounds about right on the surface, though I'm thinking the general motivation of the Dems this year will be strong. So I agree they would lose no more than 5 or 6, but it could be less.

    Senate ends-up Republicans losing 1. Yeah, sounds about right. Though Collins may have a tougher time then we think, so it could be Republicans losing 2. Regardless of who loses specifically, I'm looking for the Dems to flip 1 or 2, but not the body.

    I like your Electoral College numbers, but cannot do a hard analysis like yours. I do not believe Trump will prevail in 1, 2, or 3 of the razor thin wins he had in 2016 like MI. But while I see Dem motivation, I have a very hard time to take the election away from an incumbent during peacetime with a good economy. So I won't call it except to say I think it will be close.
  20. Perotista's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky
    Damn - just found this.

    This is a nice piece of work, Perotista. I can't think of a better member for the job. Thank you very much for this.

    I'm going to see if I can figure-out how to subscribe or follow your future releases somehow.

    I may come back later to make some specific comments, if you don't mind?
    I'll be posting these on the first of every month up to and including 1 Nov. At least the first of every month is my target date. I've started on my 1 Feb forecast, that one will be ready on the first. Looking back at the one's I did for 2018, 2016 and on back, the history portion is what I find the most interesting. Seeing how things change from month to month leading up to the election regardless of the election cycle.
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