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Drudge is confused by Jobs Numbers

NeverTrumpGOP said:
And yet it was worth your time to post a nothing reply when it could have been less words to link to a time when natural disasters were used to explain away bad job numbers. I've never heard of it before and this is on top of FEMA scrubbing the rising PR death tolls and other info from it's website. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...to-rico-here-they-are/?utm_term=.1803cddf0a0d
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LOOK, I am 55, I gotta prioritize anymore, and you do have the Google....


Start with this piece by Matthew (Now With Vox), he is smart and explains things well:

Hurricane Isaac and the government: How natural disasters create jobs and what economic policy needs to learn from them.
 
NeverTrumpGOP said:
haha the JOBS, JOBS, JOBS President isn't working to Drudge's liking???

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September Job Growth Numbers -- Hurricanes Affected Numbers | National Review

The numbers on job growth were downright whacky. Nonfarm payrolls dropped 33,000. If this holds up through revisions, it’ll be the first decline since 2010 and was much weaker than the consensus expected. However, civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes small-business start-ups, rose 906,000 in September. Our first guess would be that the unusually large gap between the two surveys is due to the timing of Hurricane Irma, which hit the U.S. right at the beginning of the payroll survey week. But the civilian-employment report also says that 1.47 million workers missed work due to weather, the most for any month since the double-whammy of massive East Coast snowstorms in January 1996. In other words, the civilian employment report apparently did get affected by the storms and still rose sharply!

Read more at: September Job Growth Numbers -- Hurricanes Affected Numbers | National Review
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NeverTrumpGOP said:
haha the JOBS, JOBS, JOBS President isn't working to Drudge's liking???

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The BLS has the ability to track Jobs using actual numbers harvested from IRS data, but chooses instead to rely on a survey.

I have found this to be a confusing approach since I became aware of it.

Seems like a system maintained intentionally to produce results that can be tampered with and re-arranged to the liking of those in power.

Fits right in with the question: "What would you LIKE the numbers to say?"
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Natural disasters tend to depress numbers as they happen and increase numbers for long after as the rebuilding takes place.

I gotta feeling you dont know this.
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Wake up and look at the retail sector financial meltdown and the number of bankruptcies this year.
You probably don’t know that these retail companies lost thousands of jobs, and they actually employed real people.
 
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code1211 said:
The BLS has the ability to track Jobs using actual numbers harvested from IRS data, but chooses instead to rely on a survey.

I have found this to be a confusing approach since I became aware of it.
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Which IRS data? monthly withholdings for 150 million people? Do you really think that can be done fast enough so that on the first Friday of a month the numbers from the previous month would be ready? It's not possible.

Now, BLS does produce the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) which is a full actual count of all private payroll employment based on unemployment insurance tax records. But it takes months to process (at least 6 months). The sample for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) is about one third of all payroll employment, which is a massive sample. Once a year, the CES data are benchmarked to the March QCEW results.

BLS should be finishing processing the 1st Quarter QCEW numbers about now, and in the Employment Situation for January 2018, the March 2017 CES employment levels will be changed to reflect the March 2017 QCEW results, and then every month of the CES from April 2016 to December 2017 will be changed based on that.

As for tampering...it is impossible for all practical purposes. Too many people would have to be involved in a decades long conspiracy. It really cannot be done.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Natural disasters tend to depress numbers as they happen and increase numbers for long after as the rebuilding takes place.

I gotta feeling you dont know this.
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Add to the fact that we were still under Obama's budget. Trump's budget just started this month.
 
SMTA said:
Wake up and look at the retail sector financial meltdown and the number of bankruptcies this year.
You probably don’t know that these retail companies lost thousands of jobs, and they actually employed real people.
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That is due to the market itself. Online shopping is putting a lot of the brick and mortar places out of business.
 
The Conservative media....LOL wonder if Obama lost 33,000 jobs when the forecast was for a 90,000 gain if Drudge's report would have been so kind.....NYET. Fake News they scream and believe me they should know fake news when they see it....cause they been spouting it for years and the herded lambs ...........keep following
 
danarhea said:
Add to the fact that we were still under Obama's budget. Trump's budget just started this month.
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Thanks you are right he lost 120,000 jobs based on the forecasted 90,000 gain thanks for pointing out that it just started LOL LOL
 
danarhea said:
That is due to the market itself. Online shopping is putting a lot of the brick and mortar places out of business.
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True, and the hemorrhaging retail sector bankruptcies have cost thousands of jobs.
Inept leadership has been a huge factor - Sears is a perfect example of what not to do.
 
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Fraggle Rock said:
Thanks you are right he lost 120,000 jobs based on the forecasted 90,000 gain thanks for pointing out that it just started LOL LOL
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The figures are for September, which was under Obama. You can start attributing losses or gains to Trump starting October 1. Look, I don't like Trump at all, and think he's a horrible president, probably the worst in history. However, I am not going to make up stuff to prove that. I don't have to. The future economic conditions will prove that, not by attributing figures that have nothing to do with him.
 
pinqy said:
Which IRS data? monthly withholdings for 150 million people? Do you really think that can be done fast enough so that on the first Friday of a month the numbers from the previous month would be ready? It's not possible.

Now, BLS does produce the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) which is a full actual count of all private payroll employment based on unemployment insurance tax records. But it takes months to process (at least 6 months). The sample for the Current Employment Statistics (CES) is about one third of all payroll employment, which is a massive sample. Once a year, the CES data are benchmarked to the March QCEW results.

BLS should be finishing processing the 1st Quarter QCEW numbers about now, and in the Employment Situation for January 2018, the March 2017 CES employment levels will be changed to reflect the March 2017 QCEW results, and then every month of the CES from April 2016 to December 2017 will be changed based on that.

As for tampering...it is impossible for all practical purposes. Too many people would have to be involved in a decades long conspiracy. It really cannot be done.
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You refer to the first day of the month.

Are you saying that the survey is completed, results are tabulated and the report is issued in one day? It seems pretty likely that the survey is conducted over the course of a month with the results issued and then tabulated and then boiled down to a report and then, finally, presented. According to this article, that data also incorporates the average of the previous 6 months as well.

This is probably why the virtually instant ADP payroll figures depart from the BLS results. Sometimes the departure is great and other times, just a tad.


ADP and BLS jobs reports gap is widening - Business Insider

<snip>
"It is unusual that they would be telling you such different things," Binky Chadha, the chief global strategist at Deutsche Bank, said. Chadha noted the gap in his submission for Business Insider's "Most Important Charts" feature. ADP and BLS payrolls "do not tend to diverge for more than two months,” he said. “We are now in six months of what is cumulatively a very large diversion."
Deutsche Bank
<snip>
 
Harshaw said:
Yes, he did.



What he did NOT do is point out how, exactly, Drudge is confused by anything here.
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Fair enough. When I looked I was looking for the word Trump and glossed right over that part.
 
code1211 said:
You refer to the first day of the month.
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No, I referred to the first Friday.

Are you saying that the survey is completed, results are tabulated and the report is issued in one day?
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No. The reference period for the CES Is the pay period that includes the 12th of th month and collection starts the week after that. So for September, collection started on September 18. Because pay periods vary, not all collection is finished by publication week, as the data are updated for the next

This is probably why the virtually instant ADP payroll figures depart from the BLS results. Sometimes the departure is great and other times, just a tad.
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And the samples are different and BLS includes government (except military, CIA, DIA, NGA, and NSA).
 
pinqy said:
No, I referred to the first Friday.


No. The reference period for the CES Is the pay period that includes the 12th of th month and collection starts the week after that. So for September, collection started on September 18. Because pay periods vary, not all collection is finished by publication week, as the data are updated for the next

And the samples are different and BLS includes government (except military, CIA, DIA, NGA, and NSA).
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All of the minutia aside, what is the justification for using a survey when real, actual numbers are available?

That was the question I was trying to get at.

My accounting department does not survey the various production workers to see if they worked a lot or a little last week. They measure the payroll hours paid.
 
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