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Thread: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

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    Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Hong Kong economy in recession amid protests, US-China trade war

    Hong Kong slid into recession for the first time in a decade in the third quarter, weighed down by increasingly violent anti-government protests and the protracted U.S.-China trade war.

    Five months of protests have battered the Chinese-ruled city’s retail and tourism sector, and there is no sign of the demonstrations abating. Police tightened security on Thursday ahead of more potential clashes.

    The city’s economy shrank 3.2% in July-September from the preceding period, contracting for a second straight quarter and meeting the technical definition of a recession, according to preliminary government data on Thursday.

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    Germany in a recession, now Hong Kong. The financial sector flu is spreading. I guess the full quarter point rate cut by the fed this week was their last-ditch effort to vaccinate the US.

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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
    Perhaps...unless he "wins" the trade war. In which case all the tariffs will lift or revert, trade will flow again...only on a more even keel, and the economy will "boom."

    Try to look on the bright side of life.

    Last edited by Captain Adverse; 11-01-19 at 12:49 AM.
    If I stop responding it doesn't mean I've conceded the point or agree with you. It only means I've made my point and I don't mind you having the last word. Please wait a few minutes before "quoting" me. I often correct errors for a minute or two after I post before the final product is ready.

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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Adverse View Post
    Perhaps...unless he "wins" the trade war. In which case all the tariffs will lift or revert, trade will flow again...only on a more even keel, and the economy will "boom."

    Try to look on the bright side of life.

    I still don't see it, though. Not when the world is in a slowdown.
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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
    The ECB is QE'ing like mad and it isn't helping there much either.

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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    My son wants to go to HK Disneyland and Ocean Park, but until the rioting stops I'm not setting foot over there.

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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
    The current growth rate is 2% annually. Predictions for 2020 vary between 1.9-3.2% dependent on trade war resolution and election results. Lower estimates for a democratic win. There are no recession indicators on the near horizon for the US. China is slowing down because of an aging population and the one child policy, overall decreasing population. European recession indicators show a short lifespan except for Germany where excessive immigration has led to major tax increases.
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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Quote Originally Posted by Drawdown View Post
    The ECB is QE'ing like mad and it isn't helping there much either.
    QE? Yeah, 0% and even negative rates might be considered 'easing"! That's what's scary, and what I was referring to.
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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Quote Originally Posted by Chomsky View Post
    QE? Yeah, 0% and even negative rates might be considered 'easing"! That's what's scary, and what I was referring to.
    Negative rates aren't helping push GDP in europe either. This is the first real test of globalization, even more so than the great recession. The entire planet is easing right on into the liquidity trap only instead of people hoarding capital, governments are.

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    Re: Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

    Quote Originally Posted by Drawdown View Post
    Negative rates aren't helping push GDP in europe either. This is the first real test of globalization, even more so than the great recession. The entire planet is easing right on into the liquidity trap only instead of people hoarding capital, governments are.
    Interestingly enough, today we've got an excellent jobs report including a revised AUG report, showing the American economy is at least somewhat decoupled from the global economy. Whether it's truly decoupled, or only decoupled enough to allow the slowdown to lag in it's effect in America, remains to be seen. I believe it's the latter.
    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

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