• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Hong Kong falls into first recession in 10 years as protests, trade war weigh

Drawdown

DP Veteran
Joined
Aug 8, 2019
Messages
11,528
Reaction score
3,032
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Hong Kong economy in recession amid protests, US-China trade war

Hong Kong slid into recession for the first time in a decade in the third quarter, weighed down by increasingly violent anti-government protests and the protracted U.S.-China trade war.

Five months of protests have battered the Chinese-ruled city’s retail and tourism sector, and there is no sign of the demonstrations abating. Police tightened security on Thursday ahead of more potential clashes.

The city’s economy shrank 3.2% in July-September from the preceding period, contracting for a second straight quarter and meeting the technical definition of a recession, according to preliminary government data on Thursday.

________________________________
Germany in a recession, now Hong Kong. The financial sector flu is spreading. I guess the full quarter point rate cut by the fed this week was their last-ditch effort to vaccinate the US.
 
With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.
 
With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.

Perhaps...unless he "wins" the trade war. In which case all the tariffs will lift or revert, trade will flow again...only on a more even keel, and the economy will "boom."

Try to look on the bright side of life.

 
Last edited:
Perhaps...unless he "wins" the trade war. In which case all the tariffs will lift or revert, trade will flow again...only on a more even keel, and the economy will "boom."

Try to look on the bright side of life.

I still don't see it, though. Not when the world is in a slowdown.
 
With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.

The ECB is QE'ing like mad and it isn't helping there much either.
 
My son wants to go to HK Disneyland and Ocean Park, but until the rioting stops I'm not setting foot over there.
 
With news like this, even with HK's self-induced problems, I find it hard to believe the U.S. is not headed to a slowdown. We may not have a recession, but there's no way Trump is going to give us that 3%+ growth he promised. We'll be lucky to hit 2%.

The current growth rate is 2% annually. Predictions for 2020 vary between 1.9-3.2% dependent on trade war resolution and election results. Lower estimates for a democratic win. There are no recession indicators on the near horizon for the US. China is slowing down because of an aging population and the one child policy, overall decreasing population. European recession indicators show a short lifespan except for Germany where excessive immigration has led to major tax increases.
 
The ECB is QE'ing like mad and it isn't helping there much either.
QE? Yeah, 0% and even negative rates might be considered 'easing"! That's what's scary, and what I was referring to.
 
QE? Yeah, 0% and even negative rates might be considered 'easing"! That's what's scary, and what I was referring to.

Negative rates aren't helping push GDP in europe either. This is the first real test of globalization, even more so than the great recession. The entire planet is easing right on into the liquidity trap only instead of people hoarding capital, governments are.
 
Negative rates aren't helping push GDP in europe either. This is the first real test of globalization, even more so than the great recession. The entire planet is easing right on into the liquidity trap only instead of people hoarding capital, governments are.
Interestingly enough, today we've got an excellent jobs report including a revised AUG report, showing the American economy is at least somewhat decoupled from the global economy. Whether it's truly decoupled, or only decoupled enough to allow the slowdown to lag in it's effect in America, remains to be seen. I believe it's the latter.
 
The current growth rate is 2% annually. Predictions for 2020 vary between 1.9-3.2% dependent on trade war resolution and election results. Lower estimates for a democratic win. There are no recession indicators on the near horizon for the US. China is slowing down because of an aging population and the one child policy, overall decreasing population. European recession indicators show a short lifespan except for Germany where excessive immigration has led to major tax increases.

The Chinese got rid of the one child policy years ago.
 
Interestingly enough, today we've got an excellent jobs report including a revised AUG report, showing the American economy is at least somewhat decoupled from the global economy. Whether it's truly decoupled, or only decoupled enough to allow the slowdown to lag in it's effect in America, remains to be seen. I believe it's the latter.

I believe we are the last safe harbor left on the planet right now. Or at least the dollar is....
 
I believe we are the last safe harbor left on the planet right now. Or at least the dollar is....
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?
 
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?

I am a pessimist by nature; I don’t feel “safe.”
 
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?

I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.
 
Three years, actually. Going to be some time for the three year olds to affect the economy...

one-child policy | Definition & Facts | Britannica.com

It was relaxed many years before, especially for rural and ethnic minorities. Even with the relaxation the birth rate has not increased. China is likely to have its birth rate stay around the same levels as Korea and Japan, both are below 2 (1.1-1.3 I believe)
 
Agreed. The question is: Are we uniquely safe (& isolated)? Or, are we only decoupled enough to temporarily delay the inevitable?

I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.

The US is running federal deficit of 4.9% of GDP, the economy is growing at about a 2% level. Combined with still quite low interest rates, one can safely assume the US is being stimulated by government economic intervention (if deficit spending was eliminated the US would likely go into a mid size recession)

Debt, at all levels will be able to keep the US economy "going" until one of the 3 (government, corporate, or personal) decides enough is enough and stops taking on more. That decision is likely to come from lenders rather than the groups taking on the loans. Of course the government can issue their own debt without much worry
 
I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.

The view never changes....
 
The Chinese got rid of the one child policy years ago.

Not that long ago. During Nov 2013 China instituted the new policy, families could have two children if one parent, rather than both parents, was an only child. Two children were allowed for families when both parents were only children in Dec 2011.

Chinese tradition had been for children to care for their elderly parents. Today the children walkaway leaving the burden for the state. Not much different than what happens here all too often with no governmental policies for birth limitations.
 
I believe we are the last safe harbor left on the planet right now. Or at least the dollar is....

As evidenced by the equity markets and commercial real estate markets flush with foreign money. It is not merely the stability and dependability of the $, it is that the US is a relative tax haven.
 
I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.

Give congress a chance, they will manage to somehow derail the economy. :)
 
I think we are uniquely safe in that our government is so completely dysfunctional right now it would be difficult to build a consensus on anything that would screw up things worse. A boat run ashore is at least stable and predictable.
Hah! :mrgreen:
 
The US is running federal deficit of 4.9% of GDP, the economy is growing at about a 2% level. Combined with still quite low interest rates, one can safely assume the US is being stimulated by government economic intervention (if deficit spending was eliminated the US would likely go into a mid size recession)

Debt, at all levels will be able to keep the US economy "going" until one of the 3 (government, corporate, or personal) decides enough is enough and stops taking on more. That decision is likely to come from lenders rather than the groups taking on the loans. Of course the government can issue their own debt without much worry
I think this is a good post, m'lord! :thumbs:
 
Back
Top Bottom