Hope is Kindled

I have studied North Korea for most of my adult life.

In what I hope history will call the “Korean Olympic Thaw” I have viewed the developments with much suspicion knowing DPRK as I do, compared to all their actions over all the decades none of it made any sense and I guess they still don’t.

DPRK still is one of the most notorious violators of human rights in the world and their nuclear arsenal still endangers the entire region, maybe even the world.

But today, after seeing this, I am ready to have hope, please, let this be the beginning, let this be the clip when future generations look back in their classrooms in a reunified Korea, let this be the moment they look to.

I think a healthy amount of suspicion is still warranted, this is DPRK we’re talking about.

But, I’m ready to hope.

JBM, my wish is for history to validate your hope. I just have a nagging doubt about this ‘detente.’ If events play out as planned, we won’t have to wonder very much longer.

Jetboogieman said:

I have studied North Korea for most of my adult life.

In what I hope history will call the “Korean Olympic Thaw” I have viewed the developments with much suspicion knowing DPRK as I do, compared to all their actions over all the decades none of it made any sense and I guess they still don’t.

DPRK still is one of the most notorious violators of human rights in the world and their nuclear arsenal still endangers the entire region, maybe even the world.

But today, after seeing this, I am ready to have hope, please, let this be the beginning, let this be the clip when future generations look back in their classrooms in a reunified Korea, let this be the moment they look to.

I think a healthy amount of suspicion is still warranted, this is DPRK we’re talking about.

But, I’m ready to hope.

Click to expand...

That is a good thought.

I have some trouble getting to NK playing by any rules for very long given that China has proven that doing so is not required, and given that the West is now so decrepit that we regularly fold and fail to accomplish the mission.

I think it would be similar to agreeing with an MS-13 gang member in a business project.

Jetboogieman said:

I have studied North Korea for most of my adult life.

In what I hope history will call the “Korean Olympic Thaw” I have viewed the developments with much suspicion knowing DPRK as I do, compared to all their actions over all the decades none of it made any sense and I guess they still don’t.

DPRK still is one of the most notorious violators of human rights in the world and their nuclear arsenal still endangers the entire region, maybe even the world.

But today, after seeing this, I am ready to have hope, please, let this be the beginning, let this be the clip when future generations look back in their classrooms in a reunified Korea, let this be the moment they look to.

I think a healthy amount of suspicion is still warranted, this is DPRK we’re talking about.

But, I’m ready to hope.

Click to expand...

I like and appreciate your sentiment in hoping for reunification. I just don't see why that's desirable. Maybe if I was a Korean, with family on both sides of the border I'd feel different, but for me it's enough to see an end to hostilities and peaceful coexistence.

Grand Mal said:

I like and appreciate your sentiment in hoping for reunification. I just don't see why that's desirable. Maybe if I was a Korean, with family on both sides of the border I'd feel different, but for me it's enough to see an end to hostilities and peaceful coexistence.

Click to expand...

I agree, although I too want to see peace on the peninsula. However, I've lived long enough to see other administrations hoodwinked by NK's promises of "being good" in return for money. They took the money, then years down the road, under future administrations, they simply chortled "we lied!" and whipped out their nuclear advances for all the world to see.

NK plans its moves over decades, not years. Reunification itself would be disastrous for SK, since a "one Korea policy" needs only one leader. Does anyone have to ask who that leader would be? Free travel between citizens of North and South Korea would be great, but will not happen since once NK's citizens got a close-up view of all that they had been deprived of, the rush out of the North would drain the country of citizens, and overwhelm the South's economy.

A true, believable Kumbaya moment for the Koreas is not something I see in the foreseeable future, I'm afraid. In other words, "It's a trap, world. It's a trap."

I hope I'm proven wrong, even if I'm no longer here to see it.

Shall we discuss the GOP elephant in the room?

DiAnna said:

I agree, although I too want to see peace on the peninsula. However, I've lived long enough to see other administrations hoodwinked by NK's promises of "being good" in return for money. They took the money, then years down the road, under future administrations, they simply chortled "we lied!" and whipped out their nuclear advances for all the world to see.

NK plans its moves over decades, not years. Reunification itself would be disastrous for SK, since a "one Korea policy" needs only one leader. Does anyone have to ask who that leader would be? Free travel between citizens of North and South Korea would be great, but will not happen since once NK's citizens got a close-up view of all that they had been deprived of, the rush out of the North would drain the country of citizens, and overwhelm the South's economy.

A true, believable Kumbaya moment for the Koreas is not something I see in the foreseeable future, I'm afraid. In other words, "It's a trap, world. It's a trap."

I hope I'm proven wrong, even if I'm no longer here to see it.

Click to expand...

Some have advocated for accepting a nuclear armed NK and to not stand in the way of it. Do we all pretty much agree what a bad idea that is?

X Factor said:

Some have advocated for accepting a nuclear armed NK and to not stand in the way of it. Do we all pretty much agree what a bad idea that is?

Click to expand...

Sincerely, I don't know what this has to do with what I posted.

DiAnna said:

Sincerely, I don't know what this has to do with what I posted.

Click to expand...

Oh, sorry.

I don't see it.

I think Kim is playing to his advantage. It seems his nuke testing mountain got all FUBAR'd, and I think he's using his temporary troubles as a ploy.

I do not see him ever giving-up nukes. At best, he'll do what looks on paper to be a slight reduction, if he can extract conditions he believes is to his advantage.

Sorry to sound so skeptical ...

X Factor said:

Some have advocated for accepting a nuclear armed NK and to not stand in the way of it. Do we all pretty much agree what a bad idea that is?

Click to expand...

I believe we have no choice, but to accept the reality of a nuclear armed NK . Or perhaps more accurately, we need to accept the reality that the nukes are not very likely going away, and there's not much we can do to force it.

That's not to say we shouldn't try to impede it. But I sure wouldn't get any hopes of eradicating it.

DiAnna said:

I agree, although I too want to see peace on the peninsula. However, I've lived long enough to see other administrations hoodwinked by NK's promises of "being good" in return for money. They took the money, then years down the road, under future administrations, they simply chortled "we lied!" and whipped out their nuclear advances for all the world to see.

NK plans its moves over decades, not years. Reunification itself would be disastrous for SK, since a "one Korea policy" needs only one leader. Does anyone have to ask who that leader would be? Free travel between citizens of North and South Korea would be great, but will not happen since once NK's citizens got a close-up view of all that they had been deprived of, the rush out of the North would drain the country of citizens, and overwhelm the South's economy.

A true, believable Kumbaya moment for the Koreas is not something I see in the foreseeable future, I'm afraid. In other words, "It's a trap, world. It's a trap."

I hope I'm proven wrong, even if I'm no longer here to see it.

Click to expand...

I'm optimistic, on the peaceful resolution front. Reunification, not so much. People keep pointing to Germany and how it benefited the East more than the West but the analogy dies when you compare NK with the collapse ofthe Soviet Empire. Not the same thing at all. I'd be more worried about the Vietnam model. I don't know how prosperous and commited to capitalism the people in the South Korean countryside are. If there's a possibility of a Korean equivalent to the Viet Cong, all bets would be off.
North Koreans will never be allowed south of the boundary. You're right there. Remember how the Soviet Union treated returned prisoners-of-war because they'd been exposed to the west? Even if their exposure was German prison camp brutality.
But that's just looking at how reunification would look. I don't see the need. I'll feel real good if a way is found for those two countries to live in peace. And, for the sake of ordinary North Koreans, if their country can participate in the world even if they can never visit it.

As a Korean, I would want to think this recent meeting as optimistic as possible, but I am seeing the possible alternatives.
Remember the 6.25 1950 sudden attack by the North Koreans. Who would have imagined, after just 5 years after being given independence, the nation would get torn apart and destroyed by a 3 years length of war? Not forgetting the fact that there had been 2 other times in the past few decades where the North Korean leader and the South Korean president met, but what had happened afterwards? Nothing, just another 10 years of tension build up.
Let's also look at the German betrayal of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact that was signed during the 2nd World War. The Soviets were not ready at all for a sudden mass assault by their trusted neighbor, the Germans.
All we can do currently, is just to sit and watch the North Koreans next move

X Factor said:

Some have advocated for accepting a nuclear armed NK and to not stand in the way of it. Do we all pretty much agree what a bad idea that is?

Click to expand...

Nonsense...I don't know ANY liberal that has ever advocated for that so stop MANUFACTURING imaginary ones.
That said, KOREA, even if united, even if denuclearized, is and ever shall now BE NUCLEAR, because one cannot rewind the possession of the knowledge needed to become nuclear once it is learned. No un-ringing that bell.

So, should this reunification with SK be 100% genuine, understand that NK and SK unified into KOREA is now NUCLEAR and shall always be, even if all nuclear weapons disappear from the peninsula. Also understand one other thing. These were not TRIPARTITE US/NK/SK negotiations, they were NK, SK and held under the auspices of CHINA.

The skepticism which exists has less to do with Trump and more to do with past history, i.e. North Korea suddenly pivoting on a dime and renegging on everything they previously promised, over a trifle. That is history, that is fact.

And yet still many of us are hopeful. Some of us are even willing to credit Trump with being just crazy enough (or play acting at it well enough) to convince Kim to seek counsel from China, who DID have a very intense meeting with him prior.
If the reunification is real, then yes Trump at least gets credit for using his chaos skills to shake Kim up enough to try a different tactic.
The skepticism however, remains, and if North Korea skips out, Trump will simply join a long long line of other presidents who were hoodwinked, and to be fair, in my humble opinion he should feel no shame because far better men than he have been tricked by them.

All he needs to do is keep a low profile and not brag too much just yet, and see how it pans out.
If he can do that, and this is for real, he WILL get plenty of credit.
If he barks, crows and boasts now, and it blows up, the embarrassment is well deserved.

Naturally I would rather give him credit, even though I despise him to the marrow of my bones.

Well, this is quite an interesting development, and I am heartened to hear that detained United States citizens are apparently about to be released prior to Donald Trump's meeting with Kim Jong Un.

However, I think I would be far more inclined to be hopeful and believe that the North Korean regime has undergone a massive change of heart if Kim Jong Un were to begin ordering the release the thousands upon thousands of political prisoners and their families from his country's system of prison labor camps.

Chomsky said:

I don't see it.

I think Kim is playing to his advantage. It seems his nuke testing mountain got all FUBAR'd, and I think he's using his temporary troubles as a ploy.

I do not see him ever giving-up nukes. At best, he'll do what looks on paper to be a slight reduction, if he can extract conditions he believes is to his advantage.

Sorry to sound so skeptical ...

Click to expand...

He'd be an idiot to ever give up nukes. The Ukrainians are a prime example that one should never trust national defense to another country.