The authors conclude in favor of the majority opinion of Justice Scalia in District of Columbia v. Heller, albeit for reasons different from those expressed by Scalia. To be completely fair to them, the data isn't at odds with their interpretation:
....
But, then again, I'm an economist, not a lawyer. I know enough about the history of political philosophy and the nuances of some of those arguments to find this odd, but I might be overlooking some details. I just want to make sure nobody suddenly accuses me of sidding with the authors on account of a personal bias. I don't have a peculiarly strong stance on any issue related to gun control. All I did was read the article and think about why the authors might not be so wrong.
As always, my friend, you restore my faith in rational discussion of the topic. I've truncated your post to address the points individually, and I'll be frank about my criticism of the OP, because it is germane to your post.
I'll begin with my bias, which is the opposite of the authors. They are acolytes of/apologists for Scalia and produced an article which demonstrates that bias in spades. I've always found Scalia to be overrated and a charlatan when it comes to academic study of the law. That's my bias.
As you posit, to be fair, their position isn't
completely at odds with the data, but it is
substantially so. The reason is their peculiar parsing of the phrases. This process is both deliberate, and, in my view, deceptive, because it takes the language out of context and twists its meaning to their viewpoint. As you also point out, "the phrase about which they inquired could also refer to many things at once." But to drill down a bit about what bothers me:
I start with their decision to separate the phrases "to keep" and "to bear" arms. "They find evidence that the phrase to "keep and bear arms"
would be understood as two distinct phrases 'to keep arms' and 'to bear arms.'" Understood by whom? Not by the framers, certainly, as they conjoined them into a single phrase. And this is where the deception begins. They dismiss, rather cavalierly, Justice Stevens' conclusion that "the phrase keep and bear arms was a unitary term of art." Instead they determined, without elaboration, that Stevens' "linguistic intuition" was incorrect.
To be fair, they did conclude that
In roughly 90 percent of our data set, the phrase bear arms had a militia-related meaning, which strongly implies that bear arms was generally used to refer to collective military activity, not individual use.... Further, we found that bear arms often took on a military meaning without being followed by against. Thus, the word against was sufficient, but not necessary, to give the phrase bear arms a militia-related meaning. Scalia was wrong on this particular claim.
But, their
aim (I think quite clearly) was to reach the same conclusion in a different way. They did so by ignoring the overwhelming evidence of the error of both their and Scalia's interpretation to focus on a different error, by parsing out the phrase "keep arms", and asserting
The results here were somewhat inconclusive. In about 40 percent of the hits, a person would keep arms for a collective, military purpose; these documents support Justice Stevens’s reading. And roughly 30 percent of the hits reference a person who keeps arms for individual uses[.]
And thus they concluded "Based on our findings, an average citizen of the founding era would likely have understood the phrase keep arms to refer to possessing arms for both military and personal uses." I call BS. The
weight of the evidence is against their conclusion, so they ignore that, and they go on to do that in the context of "arms" in the context of "rights".
About 40 percent of the results had a militia sense, about 25 percent used an individual sense, and about 30 percent referred to both militia and individual senses.
So, even though the majority of uses were unambiguously about militias, they ignore that conclusion to declare it "ambiguous".
Of course, this entire discussion is taken out of the context of the Amendment itself, which begins with the phrase “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State..." Just as Justice Scalia did. That is the methodology of those who pursue “original public meaning” as a goal, to divorce the language from its context so as to
misconstrue its meaning. That is the kernal of the deception.
I think
Corpus linguistics can be a valuable tool. In the proper hands, it can illuminate meaning where ambiguities exist in the text. With those with a less honorable bend, though, it (like a firearm) can be uses to
cause harm and to create ambiguities where none appear.