Scientific research, public and private.

While science is getting better at predicting the wind velocity of a hurricane, the severity of a snow storm, or the path of an epidemic, it still cannot predict what will induce a good pout , rebellion or apathy in a teenage girl.

We definitely need to fund and direct more research in areas that really affects our lives

publicly funded research is well suited for things that are not immediately profitable. private for profit research extensively uses public research as a foundation for innovation. i have spent my career working in both areas.

btthegreat said:

While science is getting better at predicting the wind velocity of a hurricane, the severity of a snow storm, or the path of an epidemic, it still cannot predict what will induce a good pout , rebellion or apathy in a teenage girl.

We definitely need to fund and direct more research in areas that really affects our lives

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Unfortunately the nascent ability to predict and perhaps proactively modify human behaviour on the individual level will be a two-edged sword. Already embryonic artificial intelligence driven behavioural analysis programmes are being used to predict criminal behaviour and the likelihood of recidivism in the penal sector or actuarial risk in the insurance sector. How long before that is applied by cynical interests to other areas of public and private life in order to impose political and ideological hygiene in authoritarian regimes? Soon artificial intelligence machines may know us better then we know ourselves and with the centralisation of data in a very few hands or chips, then there is a real danger of a hive-society incrementally emerging where individualism is supplanted by an inhuman collective will in the service of the few by AI oversight and social/societal management.

Big data may not be a good idea.



Cheers.
Evilroddy.

btthegreat said:

While science is getting better at predicting the wind velocity of a hurricane, the severity of a snow storm, or the path of an epidemic, it still cannot predict what will induce a good pout , rebellion or apathy in a teenage girl.

We definitely need to fund and direct more research in areas that really affects our lives

Click to expand...

Well, I have news for you: no pouting, rebellious or apathetic teen has anywhere near the potential impact on my life as might a hurricane.


As for the relative accuracy of scientific predictions about natural and human phenomena, the two will never be predicted with the same nature and extent of accuracy. They won't because natural phenomena, given materially identical inputs, occur the same way. In contrast, while large groups of humans do behave in consistent patterns given materially identical inputs, specific individuals do not. Recognizing that distinction between the impacts of inputs, scientists don't much try to predict the specific behavior of most individuals.

The lack of peer review and replication is making a sham of research papers in general. Way too many are poorly done.