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The Insuperable Statistics of Polypeptide Synthesis - Hemoglobin

MrWonderful

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This is a schematic drawing of human hemoglobin, a polypeptide of 574 amino acid residues, two alpha chains of 141 residues each and two beta chains of 146 residues each.

protein structure.jpg

The original synthesis of hemoglobin, whether very fast, or very slow, involved the precise consecutive addition of one specific amino acid to the chain being constructed. Since there are 20 different amino acids in human polypeptides, and 19 of those have both D and L forms, there are 39 possible choices in assembling the next link in the sequence, or 1/39 x 1/39 x 1/39 …. (141 +146) times. This equates to 1 chance in 10456.
Moreover, this calculation does not even take into account:
The probability of folding the chain in a precise manner
The possibility of forming a non-peptide linkage instead of the peptide linkage. They are about equally probable from an evolutionary standpoint.
Evolutionary biologist, Richard Dawkins, claims that any event with a probability of 1 in 1040 “impossible.” But one chance in 10456 is just the start. It gets worse. Much, much worse.
This is only one of the many hundreds of polypeptides (proteins and enzymes) in the human body. Many proteins are much larger and more complex than hemoglobin.
Not only that, but also the process of “selection” always cited by evolutionists as the driving force for Darwinism, demands a preferential advantage conferred by any random mutation in order for evolution to proceed. Therefore, of the 10456 different possible steps in the gradual synthesis of this particular polypeptide, there had to be an incomprehensibly large number of selectable functions, or uses. These functions have never been documented by evolutionary biologists even to the slightest degree. They simply cannot be. Richard Dawkins’ favorite explanation for evolution and polypeptide synthesis is “A>B>C.” Sometimes he gets really sophisticated and adds “>D”. This isn’t science. It’s alphabeticization.
The probability of building a chain of 574 amino acids in which all linkages are peptide linkages is ½ to the 573th power or 1 chance in 10172.


Combining just these two factors, and not counting the folding possibilities, which represents yet another daunting hurdle, we get 10456 times 10172
or 10628 combinations of sequence, chirality, and bond. Only 1 of these 10628 different combinations represents normal human hemoglobin.

As a means of comparing a number as enormous as 10628 , remember that the number of fundamental particles in the universe is approximately 1080. And Dawkins defined "impossible" as one chance in 1040.

So amazing is the functional complexity of hemoglobin that it defies LeChatlier's Principle, a fundamental rule in chemistry, by binding each of four successive molecules of oxygen more tightly than the previous one bound. In polyprotic acids, for example, each successive hydronium ion is bound orders of magnitude less tightly than the previous hydronium ion.

Carbonic acid Ka

H2CO3 4.4×10–7

HC03– 4.7×10–11





Frog + Kiss (by Princess) = Prince ----- Fairy Tale
Frog + millions of years = Prince ------ science
_________________________

Not only must random mutation have accounted for a statistically impossible sequence of amino acid residues , but that process of synthesizing the molecule required folding at each step into a unique and tortuous configuration that would be functional and specific:

1si4.pdb-500.jpg

This is just ONE polypeptide, and not a particularly large one at that. Multiply this impossibility by at least 2,000 and then get back to me with specifics on how the Magic Wand of Selection did all of them. Not generalities. Not vague mumbo jumbo. Not A>B>C>D. Specifics.
 
One hundred views and NOBODY has proposed a hint of how random mutation could begin to produce even one polypeptide, and not even a particularly large one at that.
Just multiply that impossibility by 2,000 more polypeptides just in the human body and you have a hint of how absurd Darwin's archaic tautology really is.
 
And all those waving The Magic Selection Wand were silent....
They had not even the vaguest speculation on original synthesis of even ONE protein.
 
One hundred views and NOBODY has proposed a hint of how random mutation could begin to produce even one polypeptide, and not even a particularly large one at that.

Just multiply that impossibility by 2,000 more polypeptides just in the human body and you have a hint of how absurd Darwin's archaic tautology really is.

I read your OP and didn't respond for several reasons:
  1. I didn't see a clear explication of what you want to discuss, let alone a specific entreaty to propose "how random mutation could begin to produce...one polypeptide." I don't much care to engage in conversations whereof I'm not sure what precisely the conversation starter wants to discuss.
  2. I saw questionable math that, intrinsically, wasn't problematic for comprehending your theme for, yes, the probabilities, given the tacit assumptions in your OP, are huge, and I agree that they are. That said, an incorrectly cited probability in an argument relying, wholly/partly, on im-/probability is a material error. I don't engage in banter about complex topics when I see the conversation starter make material errors in presenting his/her key premises, for if s/he disregards the significance of key elements in his/her own argument, it's quite likely s/he will do so re: key elements in any counter arguments they encounter.
    • I think you wrote that (1/39)^287 corresponds to a 1 in 10,456 chance, yet you later wrote (1/2)^573 corresponds to a 1 in 10,172 probability. It's not possible for those two probabilities to be but a few hundred apart because (1/39)^5 = 0.00000001108350100177 whereas (.5)^5 = 0.03125 or (1/32).
    • Deliberacy -- The OP tacitly assumes deliberate undertaking be the formation of hemoglobin, thus other organic structures, rather than a serendipitous outcome. To wit, consider two approaches to making tasty meals.
      • Approach A: I have an assortment of edible ingredients and I combine them in a host of ways. Some of those ways produce bad-tasting meals, some of varying degrees of tastiness, and some combinations produce tasty meals. The tasty combinations are ones that get repeated; those that taste bad will not be repeated; and those that were so-so might, if circumstances warrant or necessitate, get repeated.
      • Approach B: I have an assortment of edible ingredients and I intend specifically to make a specific tasty dish. With that dish as my goal from square-one, of course there won't be any trial-and-error. Contrasting that with Approach A in which I merely sought to make a tasty meal, one sees that under "A," serendipity could make quite a few things before I ever happen onto the specific combination that produces the dish I set out to make in
    • Linearity -- Another tacit assumption in the OP is that combinations of ingredients coalesce in a temporally linear sequence. We know, of course, that ingredients can combine that way; however we know that they don't have to and often enough don't, especially in the "petri dish" called the natural world. To wit, can it not rain in NYC and Tokyo at the same time? Of course, it can, and does, yet the clouds causing the rain are completely separate. Whereas you and I can only combine ingredients in one place and, more or less, in a linear sequence, nature -- the elements and processes that move, combine and separate them -- does not.
  3. I surmised, upon seeing mention of Richard Dawkins, that you wanted to discuss something having to do with the Cosmological Argument and evolution. I generally don't care to discuss evolution vs. creationism. (I've attached a document you may or may not find interesting.)
  4. Later seeing you ask to expound on how a random process -- one comprised of millions (billions?) of "ingredients," multiple sources of energy, billions of years of concurrent activity, and needing only one tiny variation among all those "outcome influencers" to produce two very different end products -- can result in a single outcome that you've selected from all the myriad possible ones that have come and gone over time, I knew I could not tell you how it happened. It was thus clear to me that you were asking a question for which I don't have an answer. (The closest thing to a "how" explanation I can point to is a mathematical proof that shows serendipity of the sort I've described is possible.)
  5. I recognized the general content of your OP and discovered that it is largely a "copy and paste" of the first part of an essay entitled "Evolution Fraud," which is a blog written by an unnamed individual and unidentified organization.
For those reasons, I didn't respond to the OP. I responded with this post only because you seemed desirous of knowing why nobody's responding. I can speak only for myself, but now you know my reasons for not sooner posting.
 

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[*]I saw questionable math that, intrinsically, wasn't problematic for comprehending your theme for, yes, the probabilities, given the tacit assumptions in your OP, are huge, and I agree that they are. That said, an incorrectly cited probability in an argument relying, wholly/partly, on im-/probability is a material error. I don't engage in banter about complex topics when I see the conversation starter make material errors in presenting his/her key premises, for if s/he disregards the significance of key elements in his/her own argument, it's quite likely s/he will do so re: key elements in any counter arguments they encounter.

Let's not quibble about a few dozens or scores or even a hundred or two hundred *mere* orders of MAGNITUDE in my math, and stipulate that you are indeed correct. I was off by whatever number of orders of magnitude you may say. Nevertheless it is abundantly clear that the insuperable IMPOSSIBILITY of original synthesis of polypeptides so necessary for life in ANY FORM dooms the Darwinian materialist claim forever. There are sufficient HUNDREDS of orders of magnitude remaining even AFTER subtracting virtually as many of them as you might wish.


The OP tacitly assumes deliberate undertaking be the formation of hemoglobin, thus other organic structures, rather than a serendipitous outcome. To wit, consider two approaches to making tasty meals.



Serendipitous outcomes, oh please. For you to equate a human making a meal with unguided synthesis of the type I so clearly described plumbs the very depth of Darwinian ignorance and anti-science.



[*]I surmised, upon seeing mention of Richard Dawkins, that you wanted to discuss something having to do with the Cosmological Argument and evolution. I generally don't care to discuss evolution vs. creationism. (I've attached a document you may or may not find interesting.)

You surmised quite incorrectly, again and again. I pointed out some of the factors of biochemistry to which you had/have no answer.

It was thus clear to me that you were asking a question for which I don't have an answer.

Nor does any other follower of Darwin.

(The closest thing to a "how" explanation I can point to is a mathematical proof that shows serendipity of the sort I've described is possible.)


"Mathematical proof".... of how nothing made everything.....

There is a recent study of peer reviewed papers, noting how a large proportion - as I recall something in excess of 50% of those reexamined - were fraudulent. The fatuous pretense that calculus can "prove" how nothing MADE everything is as absurd as the Multiverse. Desperate people will say anything.

[*]I recognized the general content of your OP and discovered that it is largely a "copy and paste" of the first part of an essay entitled "Evolution Fraud," which is a blog written by an unnamed individual and unidentified organization.

.

Obviously it never occurred to you that I created and maintain The Evolution Fraud. If you'd like, I can insert your name and comments here at the beginning of that website.

Thank you for your lengthy and thorough response, which fails at every point.
 
Last edited:
And all those waving The Magic Selection Wand were silent....
They had not even the vaguest speculation on original synthesis of even ONE protein.

I would imagine it's because the average person on this site isn't an evolutionary biologist or organic chemist. That's the problem with science, you can't simply make up answers to problems you don't understand.
 
8bf7872d7cae18143e5283a0f79955ca.gif
 
I would imagine it's because the average person on this site isn't an evolutionary biologist or organic chemist. That's the problem with science, you can't simply make up answers to problems you don't understand.

Oh please, ignorance NEVER stops atheists and Darwinists (there is great overlap between the two) from feigning intellectual and scientific supremacy.
They simply repeat "science, science, science" over and over, and then bring up creationism, the Bible, and all sorts of things that have nothing to do with the subject under discussion.

Pretension and lies are their metiers.
 
Oh please, ignorance NEVER stops atheists and Darwinists (there is great overlap between the two) from feigning intellectual and scientific supremacy.
They simply repeat "science, science, science" over and over, and then bring up creationism, the Bible, and all sorts of things that have nothing to do with the subject under discussion.

Pretension and lies are their metiers.

Of course, people are going to react defensively when you present a gap in knowledge as a valid cause to attack their beliefs, especially when you use condescending titles, such as "Magic Wand of Selection".
 
Of course, people are going to react defensively when you present a gap in knowledge as a valid cause to attack their beliefs, especially when you use condescending titles, such as "Magic Wand of Selection".

"Anyone who doesn't believe in evolution is either ignorant, stupid, wicked or insane." - Richard Dawkins, author of The God Delusion

Richard Dawkins, and his legions of atheist followers, don't "react defensively." They are always offensive. Always
Your claim my "present(ing) a gap of knowledge" is unfounded, but all too typical of Dawkins and his followers.
As to "their beliefs," when it suits Darwinists, they shout "FACT, FACT, FACT" compounded by "SCIENCE, SCIENCE, SCIENCE" and "PROVEN, PROVEN, PROVEN."
Now, you have changed that proven scientific fact to a mere "belief" by your side. Your moving target can never be hit.

I consider it extremely "condescending" of your fellow Darwinists to shout "Creos" and "YECs" in every paragraph. Challenging Darwinism requires no creationism, no young earth. This isn't a gap in knowledge by such people either. They know better, they just can't help themselves from being condescending and hateful as they change the subject as quickly and irrationally as they can.
 
"Anyone who doesn't believe in evolution is either ignorant, stupid, wicked or insane." - Richard Dawkins, author of The God Delusion

Richard Dawkins, and his legions of atheist followers, don't "react defensively." They are always offensive. Always
Your claim my "present(ing) a gap of knowledge" is unfounded, but all too typical of Dawkins and his followers.
As to "their beliefs," when it suits Darwinists, they shout "FACT, FACT, FACT" compounded by "SCIENCE, SCIENCE, SCIENCE" and "PROVEN, PROVEN, PROVEN."
Now, you have changed that proven scientific fact to a mere "belief" by your side. Your moving target can never be hit.

I consider it extremely "condescending" of your fellow Darwinists to shout "Creos" and "YECs" in every paragraph. Challenging Darwinism requires no creationism, no young earth. This isn't a gap in knowledge by such people either. They know better, they just can't help themselves from being condescending and hateful as they change the subject as quickly and irrationally as they can.

Ok, so this thread is s "gotcha", you're not actually interested in discussion.
 
"Anyone who doesn't believe in evolution is either ignorant, stupid, wicked or insane." - Richard Dawkins, author of The God Delusion

Well, this thread hasn’t been a total waste of time.

At least I learned a good quote.
 
Ok, so this thread is s "gotcha", you're not actually interested in discussion.

Neither you nor anyone else has so much as made an attempt to provide a materialistic explanation for even ONE polypeptide as I described, of *only* 500 amino acid residues, or 1/20 to the 500th power. Should you try to do so, that would be a start of a discussion. All you and yours have done so far is engage in unrelated rhetoric, not biochemistry.
 
Well, this thread hasn’t been a total waste of time.

At least I learned a good quote.

It says something about you being awfully unread that you just now "learned" what Dawkins said decades ago, so infamously.
 
It says something about you being awfully unread that you just now "learned" what Dawkins said decades ago, so infamously.

I wasn’t under the impression I needed to know and remember everything Dawkins has ever said for the last 40 years.

But it’s odd that you do...yet haven’t seemed to learn anything from him!
 
Neither you nor anyone else has so much as made an attempt to provide a materialistic explanation for even ONE polypeptide as I described, of *only* 500 amino acid residues, or 1/20 to the 500th power. Should you try to do so, that would be a start of a discussion. All you and yours have done so far is engage in unrelated rhetoric, not biochemistry.

I'm not qualified to even begin discussing evolutionary biochemistry. Can you explain it?
 
The probability of building a chain of 574 amino acids in which all linkages are peptide linkages is ½ to the 573th power or 1 chance in 10172.
The evolutionary processes that produced that hemoglobin took place over millions of years. It long predated human beings, by the way. 1 in 10172 is actually entirely plausible in that time frame.


Dawkins defined "impossible" as one chance in 1040.
Quote mining fail. LOL

Dawkins proposed a thought experiment for how long it would take for a computer to randomly guess a phrase, "METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL." If you're using a totally random process, it will take you 10^40 attempts. Not "1 in 1040," which is low odds (if you're playing blackjack), but nothing whatsoever for an evolutionary process, and nowhere near "impossible" in general.

Anyway... With a cumulative selection process, it takes a handful of steps -- 40 to 100. Read up on the "Weasel Program" for more information.

I love the fact that not only do you fail to comprehend Dawkins, but you're making a flawed appeal to authority in the process. Something with relatively decent odds is impossible because Dawkins said so? lol


So amazing is the functional complexity of hemoglobin that it defies LeChatlier's Principle, a fundamental rule in chemistry, by binding each of four successive molecules of oxygen more tightly than the previous one bound.
Erk?

LeChatlier's Principle states that when a system is disturbed, it will restore to a new equilibrium which relieves the stress of the disturbance. Why do you think that anything about hemoglobin "defies" this?


This is just ONE polypeptide, and not a particularly large one at that. Multiply this impossibility by at least 2,000 and then get back to me with specifics on how the Magic Wand of Selection did all of them. Not generalities. Not vague mumbo jumbo. Not A>B>C>D. Specifics.
Riiiight

Even a trivial effort is sufficient to find all sorts of resources on the evolution of hemoglobin, human and otherwise. If you really want specifics, you're going to have to dive into a DNA analysis, the likes of which will not fit in a web forum.

Thus, you can start here, and report back to us.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3543078/


Frog + Kiss (by Princess) = Prince ----- Fairy Tale
Frog + millions of years = Prince ------ science
And bull**** anti-evolutionary pseudo-science = bull**** anti-evolutionary pseudo-science.
 
This is a schematic drawing of human hemoglobin, a polypeptide of 574 amino acid residues, two alpha chains of 141 residues each and two beta chains of 146 residues each.

View attachment 67234333

The original synthesis of hemoglobin, whether very fast, or very slow, involved the precise consecutive addition of one specific amino acid to the chain being constructed. Since there are 20 different amino acids in human polypeptides, and 19 of those have both D and L forms, there are 39 possible choices in assembling the next link in the sequence, or 1/39 x 1/39 x 1/39 …. (141 +146) times. This equates to 1 chance in 10456.
Moreover, this calculation does not even take into account:
The probability of folding the chain in a precise manner
The possibility of forming a non-peptide linkage instead of the peptide linkage. They are about equally probable from an evolutionary standpoint.
Evolutionary biologist, Richard Dawkins, claims that any event with a probability of 1 in 1040 “impossible.” But one chance in 10456 is just the start. It gets worse. Much, much worse.
This is only one of the many hundreds of polypeptides (proteins and enzymes) in the human body. Many proteins are much larger and more complex than hemoglobin.
Not only that, but also the process of “selection” always cited by evolutionists as the driving force for Darwinism, demands a preferential advantage conferred by any random mutation in order for evolution to proceed. Therefore, of the 10456 different possible steps in the gradual synthesis of this particular polypeptide, there had to be an incomprehensibly large number of selectable functions, or uses. These functions have never been documented by evolutionary biologists even to the slightest degree. They simply cannot be. Richard Dawkins’ favorite explanation for evolution and polypeptide synthesis is “A>B>C.” Sometimes he gets really sophisticated and adds “>D”. This isn’t science. It’s alphabeticization.
The probability of building a chain of 574 amino acids in which all linkages are peptide linkages is ½ to the 573th power or 1 chance in 10172.


Combining just these two factors, and not counting the folding possibilities, which represents yet another daunting hurdle, we get 10456 times 10172
or 10628 combinations of sequence, chirality, and bond. Only 1 of these 10628 different combinations represents normal human hemoglobin.

As a means of comparing a number as enormous as 10628 , remember that the number of fundamental particles in the universe is approximately 1080. And Dawkins defined "impossible" as one chance in 1040.

So amazing is the functional complexity of hemoglobin that it defies LeChatlier's Principle, a fundamental rule in chemistry, by binding each of four successive molecules of oxygen more tightly than the previous one bound. In polyprotic acids, for example, each successive hydronium ion is bound orders of magnitude less tightly than the previous hydronium ion.

Carbonic acid Ka

H2CO3 4.4×10–7

HC03– 4.7×10–11





Frog + Kiss (by Princess) = Prince ----- Fairy Tale
Frog + millions of years = Prince ------ science
_________________________

Not only must random mutation have accounted for a statistically impossible sequence of amino acid residues , but that process of synthesizing the molecule required folding at each step into a unique and tortuous configuration that would be functional and specific:

View attachment 67234335

This is just ONE polypeptide, and not a particularly large one at that. Multiply this impossibility by at least 2,000 and then get back to me with specifics on how the Magic Wand of Selection did all of them. Not generalities. Not vague mumbo jumbo. Not A>B>C>D. Specifics.

Wait a minute. Are you saying God did this?
 
I'm not qualified to even begin discussing evolutionary biochemistry. Can you explain it?


Gladly. I will begin by noting that when I transferred my writings to here, all exponential notation, such as 10 to the 40th power, was transposed to the far smaller value 1040.
Ten to the 172 therefore became 10172, which is tiny by comparison. Any individual knowledgeable in biochemistry and/or mathematics would have recognized as much.
Evidently the next fellow down the line knows nothing about math or biochemistry.

Now any highly competent chemist, much less biochemist, recognizes the profound difficulty in synthesizing complex organic compounds in a modern laboratory. How much MORE difficult would it be to synthesize useful proteins from random mutations, even IF they are *magically selected* by the Magic Wand of Selection.

Richard Dawkins defined "impossible" as 1 chance in 10 to the 40th power. He said "The maximum amount of luck we allow for evolution is 1 chance in 10 to the 20th power.

So clearly, the naturalistic assembly of 574 successive amino acid residues, one at a time, from a choice of 20 different amino acids, is 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20... 574 times in a row.

Compound that impossibility by the fact that amino acids can be left-handed or right-handed, so which one did naturalism use and why?
It gets much worse.
At hundreds of different steps, the chain has to be precisely folded. Who knew, and how? Where is it folded?

Now it gets downright ugly.
According to *selection*, step by painstaking step, there must be ADVANTAGES CONFERRED by this temporary polypeptide. What is the newest use for it? What does it do?
And what takes the place of this function once more amino acids are added and it performs a NEW and useful function?

Scientific minds want to know. Darwinists simply giggle, say "selection, selection, selection" and "quote mine, FAIL".

That's not science. That's childish rhetoric of a pathetic nature.
 
Wait a minute. Are you saying God did this?

I am assuring readers that random mutations, i.e. naturalism DID NOT.
You may not agree. Please propose, then, how this fantasmagoric impossibility took place, with folding of the protein at each appropriate step.

Bear in mind that statistics don't change just because events happen slowly, or quickly. Toss a coin every second or once every 10,000 years, it's still 50/50 for heads, isn't it.

Moreover, the pretension of LOTS OF REPEATS OVER AND OVER AGAIN SOLVES "impossibility" can be seen with this thought experiment.

10 to the 50th grains of sand would fill 15 spheres the size of our solar system out to Pluto. If a man in a space suit could pick out ONE SINGLE UNIQUE grain of sand, in 10 to the 15 spheres full of sand the size of our solar system, out to Pluto, on his FIRST AND ONLY TRY, that would qualify as an impossible feat.

He doesn't get "infinity" or "millions of years to keep *selecting and selecting and selecting*. He gets ONE TRY and ONE TRY ONLY. THAT is "one try in 10 to the 50th power."
THAT is the definition, not forever trying until he finds it.

Precision - it's so lacking in Darwinism, everywhere you look. It's essential to science and rational thinking.
 
Gladly. I will begin by noting that when I transferred my writings to here, all exponential notation, such as 10 to the 40th power, was transposed to the far smaller value 1040.
Someone wasn't paying attention, then... Not only to your own post, but to Dawkins's claim. Again: Cumulative selection turns that process from "not enough time in the lifespan of the universe" to "30 minutes with a typical computer."


Now any highly competent chemist, much less biochemist, recognizes the profound difficulty in synthesizing complex organic compounds in a modern laboratory. How much MORE difficult would it be to synthesize useful proteins from random mutations, even IF they are *magically selected* by the Magic Wand of Selection.
When you're dealing with trillions of organisms over billions of years, it isn't difficult at all.


Compound that impossibility by the fact that amino acids can be left-handed or right-handed, so which one did naturalism use and why?
Either it used the one that was most efficient; or, if neither one confers an advantage, it was random.


At hundreds of different steps, the chain has to be precisely folded. Who knew, and how? Where is it folded?
No one "knew." That's not how evolution works. It's a result of a mind-bogglingly large number of iterations and mutations and accidents over billions of years.


According to *selection*, step by painstaking step, there must be ADVANTAGES CONFERRED by this temporary polypeptide. What is the newest use for it? What does it do?
As in... you want us to explain to you how amino acids work?


Scientific minds want to know.
If that's the case, then you should bother to act like a scientist, and start reading -- not flail about on a web forum dedicated to politics. For example, there is already quite a bit of literature on the evolution of hemoglobin. How much of it have you read?


Darwinists simply giggle, say "selection, selection, selection" and "quote mine, FAIL".
When you quote a scientist out of context, and make other massive errors, it makes sense to point out that a) you're quote mining and b) you've failed.
 
I am assuring readers that random mutations, i.e. naturalism DID NOT.
You may not agree. Please propose, then, how this fantasmagoric impossibility took place, with folding of the protein at each appropriate step.
LMGTFY

There's quite a bit of literature on the evolution of hemoglobin. I recommend you read some of it.


Bear in mind that statistics don't change just because events happen slowly, or quickly. Toss a coin every second or once every 10,000 years, it's still 50/50 for heads, isn't it.
lol

I am not surprised that you fail to understand the Gambler's Fallacy. While it is true that each iteration of a coin toss is 50/50, it is also still true that over time the sequence will tend towards 50% heads, 50% tails. It is not guaranteed, but the more iterations you have, the more likely it is to result in the expected odds. The fallacy is when you assume that a specific iteration is likely to occur based on past results. E.g. if you get 15 tails in a row, the universe does not "owe" you 15 heads, and the next toss is still 50% likely to be tails. That does not change the fact that if you do 100 flips, it is still very likely that approximately 50 will be tails, and approximately 50 will be heads.

I.e. if you have one and only one shot to go from invertebrate globins to modern human hemoglobins, it is virtually impossible to do so. If you're going to make that transition over 1 billion years, with 10^22 organisms, making incremental steps that reward efficiency and happen in tandem with speciation? Not a problem.


10 to the 50th grains of sand would fill 15 spheres the size of our solar system out to Pluto. If a man in a space suit could pick out ONE SINGLE UNIQUE grain of sand, in 10 to the 15 spheres full of sand the size of our solar system, out to Pluto, on his FIRST AND ONLY TRY, that would qualify as an impossible feat.

He doesn't get "infinity" or "millions of years to keep *selecting and selecting and selecting*. He gets ONE TRY and ONE TRY ONLY. THAT is "one try in 10 to the 50th power."
lol

No, that's not how evolution works. No one posits that a fish gave birth to a modern human. Every single time that an organism reproduces, the offspring includes variations -- however tiny -- that impact its ability to survive in a specific environment. Over billions of years and quadrillions of births, the accumulated changes are substantial, and explain incredibly complex proteins like hemoglobin.
 
You don't understand the difference between adaptation and extrapolating adaptation almost infinitely.

Your Magic Wand of Selection is Zombie Science. You claim that it accomplishes exactly what you want it to accomplish, all the time.

IF the original synthesis of a complex protein has been explained, then you would have provided a link to such evidence. But as usual, all you do is make a snide reference to it.

That's irrational and not remotely scientific. But I repeat myself.
 
You don't understand the difference between adaptation and extrapolating adaptation almost infinitely.

Your Magic Wand of Selection is Zombie Science. You claim that it accomplishes exactly what you want it to accomplish, all the time.

IF the original synthesis of a complex protein has been explained, then you would have provided a link to such evidence. But as usual, all you do is make a snide reference to it.

That's irrational and not remotely scientific. But I repeat myself.

b0a1dd81e20ec2ef6c624c5eced8d461.jpg
 
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