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FiveThirtyEight just launched their election forecast today. Biden has a 71% chance of winning which

Polls have a number of uses.

Mr. Rush Limbaugh, for example, quotes polls from 2016 that showed Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton winning the election as an example of the meaninglessness of relying on them.

Then, later in his program, he delights in quoting the latest polls that show Democrats/liberals/progressives in a poor light.

And so it goes ...

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.
 
OrphanSlug said:
I’ve given up on these predictions, you would think 2016 would still be in recent memory for these people.
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Go to FiveThirtyEight.com.
They compare and contrast this election with 2016.
Very interesting reading and well put together.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Enough said to make me permanently rule out using 538 as a news source. Anything that even remotely implies Trump's chances of winning are almost 30 percent is 100 percent false.
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I don't share your enthusiasm, but I pray you're correct. The difference this time around is lots of people know Trump now, whereas in 2016 they were just gambling on him. So many people know now that was a mistake.
 
The AntiDonald said:
I don't share your enthusiasm, but I pray you're correct. The difference this time around is lots of people know Trump now, whereas in 2016 they were just gambling on him. So many people know now that was a mistake.
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People who are educated about Donald Trump knew how awful he is in every way months before the election. He was helped by James Comey, who made sure Hillary Clinton would be better known for having a private email server than being a former Senator in 2016.
 
Fiddytree said:
My Election Day plan: Vote, drink, go to bed.

This was before the pandemic. It just makes even more sense now.
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Aw come on, you have to stay up late to watch results come in.Except for the weird 2000 election, we always knew who won by midnight.
 
Cardinal said:
Nate Silver was practically screaming "FAVORED to win" as if that would have any impact on people.
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People who refuse to understand what Nate Silver was actually saying are the same ones who refuse to properly interpret a weather forecast.

A 71% chance of rain does not mean guaranteed rain.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Aw come on, you have to stay up late to watch results come in.Except for the weird 2000 election, we always knew who won by midnight.
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Unlikely given all the absentee voting that is likely and the fact that 45 is actively harming the postal service's coverage.

We could get a good sense of where the election is headed on election night, but unless it's a complete landslide one way or the other, it is unlikely to be called the night of November 3.
 
Trumps robust chances(29%) relative to his poor polling are a function of uncertainty. Expect his chances to dwindle without much/any change in polling as the election gets closer.
 
jcgriff2 said:
Currently 10.2%, down 4.5% from 14.7% - a steady decline for months now.

United States Unemployment Rate | 1948-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar
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While that's good news--there's two things to remember:

1) The rate of decline is slowing. That means we are likely in that mode for a good long while until the pandemic is under control.

2) That market is still worse than the Great Recession over a decade ago and has the potential to periodically reach Great Depression levels. Keep that in mind as the rocky rollout of the school year occurs both in municipalities that are fairly open and those that are closed. Both are going to cause economic shocks, because the pandemic will likely decimate economic participation in school districts that are fairly open and will be tempered in districts that are at least hybrid. People will lose jobs or will need to be tethered by unemployment benefits and PPP.
 
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George50 said:
Yes and they cover that in the article.

However, they also point out that if this were Election Day today, the model would predict 93% Biden, 7% Trump which means Trump would have a very slim chance if the election were held today. A 70/30 split on Election Day is about a 1 in 3 chance which is still a pretty good chance of winning.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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If the election was held today I have no doubt that Biden would win.

But since it's 3 months away I hope that things continue to get worse for Trump and everyone who has a brain gets out to vote for Biden. I know i will.
 
George50 said:
True, but again, if the polls do not change, on Election Day this same model will show the percentages at 93% Biden, 7% Trump, a very different Election Day forecast.
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For the polls to shift that much in Trumps favor, he would hve to do something , well competent.
 
George50 said:
“Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.
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Five Thirty Eight, the site affiliated with ABC News, that gives the ABC News Poll an A+, and weights it up lol. And puts a big fat C next to every conservative poll.

You might as well ask the New York Times what Biden's chances of winning are lol.
 
Bucky said:
What was unemployment under Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan?
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Bush alone caused the Great Recession. Obama totally reversed it. Everyone knew it was a repeat of the Great Depression being caused by a Republican and fixed by a Democrat. You have no point to make.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Bush alone caused the Great Recession. Obama totally reversed it. Everyone knew it was a repeat of the Great Depression being caused by a Republican and fixed by a Democrat. You have no point to make.
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I do have a point to make, you are just not listening.

Unemployment under Trump has been historically high.

Trump is doing what he does best. Burn things to the ground. The economy wasn't as bad under Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan, even Carter.
 
Biden is back below 50 in most polls and Trump has moved back into the 40's. Landslide Joe is having the ground collapse under him.
 
Blue Donkey said:
Bush alone caused the Great Recession. Obama totally reversed it. Everyone knew it was a repeat of the Great Depression being caused by a Republican and fixed by a Democrat. You have no point to make.
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Come now. That economic crisis was a multi-layered problem precipitated by many groups of people making bad decisions, of which the President was partly to blame. And it took a very, very long time for us to come out of it.
 
OrphanSlug said:
I’ve given up on these predictions, you would think 2016 would still be in recent memory for these people.
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This is the absolute worst possible take. "We were wrong once therefore all predictions now and forever more have no merit." And it's hard to argue 538 was even wrong. They gave Trump a 29% chance on election day in 2016. Sometimes things that have a 29% chance of happening happen.
 
Anagram said:
This is the absolute worst possible take. "We were wrong once therefore all predictions now and forever more have no merit." And it's hard to argue 538 was even wrong. They gave Trump a 29% chance on election day in 2016. Sometimes things that have a 29% chance of happening happen.
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Do they, Anagram? Do they!?
 
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