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Thank God the Polls are Wrong

calamity

calamity

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Trump may be getting a lot of support when the phone rings, but apparently that is not translating into votes that actually count.

The early vote and polls in Nevada continue to disagree. The polls suggest a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Democrats, thanks in large part to high turnout on the last day of early voting on Friday, have built a large lead in early voting in the state.1 But what exactly does Clinton’s early-vote advantage in Nevada tell us? And if Clinton does win the state, how does it affect her chances in the Electoral College overall?

Democrats are up 6 percentage points among early voters. That is, of everyone who has voted early so far in the Silver State, there are 6 points more registered Democrats than Republicans. That’s huge because most voters in Nevada vote early. In 2012, about 70 percent of all votes in the state were cast early. That’s why the party registration breakdown of early voters generally matches the registration of all people who eventually cast a ballot in the state. (It’s also what makes early voting a more reliable indicator of the final vote in Nevada, unlike in most other states.)

Has Trump Already Lost Nevada? | FiveThirtyEight
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With the high number of early voters casting ballots in Florida, and with a large number of those voters being Latino, the projections 538 is showing with Trump currently leading the polling in Florida may be wrong too.


We can hope.
 
I guess it would not surprise me that Trump supporters are keyboard warriors spamming online polls and answering the phone on the first ring when the ID says "Research," but that they are not about to get off their lazy asses to actually cast any votes that count.
 
Funny that when all the polls were in your candidate's favor you were crowing about how they were a true reflection of her popular support.

Now, when the polls show a downswing in favor of the opposing candidate you "hope" that they are not true. :confused:

I don't care about polls and I don't let polls affect my voting decisions.

I prefer to cast my vote and then wait until the last electoral vote reaching 270 is counted showing that "the fat lady has sung," rather than pretending to know who will win in advance. :shrug:
 
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calamity said:
Trump may be getting a lot of support when the phone rings, but apparently that is not translating into votes that actually count.



With the high number of early voters casting ballots in Florida, and with a large number of those voters being Latino, the projections 538 is showing with Trump currently leading the polling in Florida may be wrong too.


We can hope.
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Florida has a large Cuban vote, though. Many Cubans are Republican. (Rubio, for instance.)
 
Republicans did a report in 2012 that said they needed more minority voters.

Let's just say that didn't happen. Latino voting will break records.

Suburban women usually vote Republican, but not this time. I can't imagine why...

And a lot of moderate Republicans are either staying home or voting Hillary.

If you look at the pieces, they say Hillary. Their only hope is to bury Hillary in slime, which is why we are getting smear job du jour, every du jour..

I'm expecting Hillary kills babies any moment now.
 
JumpinJack said:
Florida has a large Cuban vote, though. Many Cubans are Republican. (Rubio, for instance.)
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Yep, but...

In Florida, which tracks turnout by race and ethnicity, Hispanics have so far cast about 14 percent of the 5.7 million early and absentee ballots cast. That puts Hispanics far ahead of where they were in casting early ballots relative to 2012.

That follows Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale's analysis, which notes that through Wednesday alone, Hispanic turnout in 2016 had already exceeded — by 170,000 ballots — Hispanic early voting in the entire 2012 cycle.


Read more: Latino voting surge rattles Trump campaign - POLITICO
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I seriously doubt that this high Latino turnout is due to energized pro-Trump Cubans.
 
late said:
Republicans did a report in 2012 that said they needed more minority voters.

Let's just say that didn't happen. Latino voting will break records.

Suburban women usually vote Republican, but not this time. I can't imagine why...

And a lot of moderate Republicans are either staying home or voting Hillary.

If you look at the pieces, they say Hillary. Their only hope is to bury Hillary in slime, which is why we are getting smear job du jour, every du jour..

I'm expecting Hillary kills babies any moment now.
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Trump is the first Republican candidate for president in ages to trail the Democrat in the white woman vote. He's totally toast with anyone of color. But, he is getting an overwhelming number of white male votes.

I doubt that will be enough to win.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/general-political-discussion/269355-demographics-election.html
 
calamity said:
Yep, but...



I seriously doubt that this high Latino turnout is due to energized pro-Trump Cubans.
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I see. Got it. I haven't been keeping up with the early voting turnout data.
 
calamity said:
Trump is the first Republican candidate for president in ages to trail the Democrat in the white woman vote. He's totally toast with anyone of color. But, he is getting an overwhelming number of white male votes.

I doubt that will be enough to win.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/general-political-discussion/269355-demographics-election.html
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If it was just white make voters, Trump would win in a landslide, which is unbelievably disgusting.

It if it was just white women, Hillary would win in a landslide.

I think this could be the election where latinos discover their political power. And that could have profound consequences.
 
JumpinJack said:
I see. Got it. I haven't been keeping up with the early voting turnout data.
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I just hope they are right and that the polls are wrong. I really do not want to see a tight election. In fact, if this country had any decency, Trump would lose in a rout.
 
late said:
If it was just white make voters, Trump would win in a landslide, which is unbelievably disgusting.

It if it was just white women, Hillary would win in a landslide.

I think this could be the election where latinos discover their political power. And that could have profound consequences.
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Actually, Mother Jones showed that if it was only white women, it would be a slight win by Hillary. The rout would be if no whites voted or only whites voted--mostly because white men are overwhelmingly voting for Trump.

And, that is a severe problem.

We are heavily divided by not only race, but sex too. Trump is not the cause for the divide. He is only exploiting it. We need to bear that in mind
 
calamity said:
I just hope they are right and that the polls are wrong. I really do not want to see a tight election. In fact, if this country had any decency, Trump would lose in a rout.
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Clinton has been running an effective GOTV campagin and have been making sure every one of her potential voters gets to the polls.

I don't think trump has invested a similar amount of time and effort as Clinton in getting people out to vote.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Clinton has been running an effective GOTV campagin and have been making sure every one of her potential voters gets to the polls.

I don't think trump has invested a similar amount of time and effort as Clinton in getting people out to vote.
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Yes. It costs a lot of money to get out the vote. And, Trump has not dropped a dime on that effort. Hillary has an army in place across the nation. In that respect, I understand why the DNC did not want the Independent Sanders to win.
 
calamity said:
Yes. It costs a lot of money to get out the vote. And, Trump has not dropped a dime on that effort. Hillary has an army in place across the nation. In that respect, I understand why the DNC did not want the Independent Sanders to win.
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Hillary has adapted the same data driven campagin Obama had in 2008 and 2012.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Hillary has adapted the same data driven campagin Obama had in 2008 and 2012.
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Yes. Although I never liked the fact taht Obama and Hillary formed a team---I wanted her gone and Obama to kick her to the curb--I understand the realpolitik involved here. He needed her to win in '08 and needed Bill campaigning for him to win in '12. Now she needs his machine and to use his tools to win in '16.
 
calamity said:
Yes. Although I never liked the fact taht Obama and Hillary formed a team---I wanted her gone and Obama to kick her to the curb--I understand the realpolitik involved here. He needed her to win in '08 and needed Bill campaigning for him to win in '12. Now she needs his machine and to use his tools to win in '16.
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It is the way of campagining in the future.
 
JumpinJack said:
Florida has a large Cuban vote, though. Many Cubans are Republican. (Rubio, for instance.)
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I'm not sure I see the connection between being a republican and voting for Trump
 
calamity said:
I guess it would not surprise me that Trump supporters are keyboard warriors spamming online polls and answering the phone on the first ring when the ID says "Research," but that they are not about to get off their lazy asses to actually cast any votes that count.
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My suspicion is that a lot of Trump supporters online are the same people creating various "accounts" on multiple websites pretending Trump has more support than he does. Nobody I know personally supports that idiot, though I do admit I've seen a few of the Trump/Pence signs where I live.
 
calamity said:
Trump is the first Republican candidate for president in ages to trail the Democrat in the white woman vote. He's totally toast with anyone of color. But, he is getting an overwhelming number of white male votes.

I doubt that will be enough to win.

http://www.debatepolitics.com/general-political-discussion/269355-demographics-election.html
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What would be hilarious is if the GOP actually started losing white voters because of Trump. Trump probably thought that by pandering to the racist fringe that he'd garner more white voters, but they aren't called the fringe for nothing. Your average white person doesn't blame their problems on blacks/hispanics/liberals/gays.
 
calamity said:
Actually, Mother Jones showed that if it was only white women, it would be a slight win by Hillary. The rout would be if no whites voted or only whites voted--mostly because white men are overwhelmingly voting for Trump.

And, that is a severe problem.

We are heavily divided by not only race, but sex too. Trump is not the cause for the divide. He is only exploiting it. We need to bear that in mind
Click to expand...

As a white man myself (well a white hispanic man, yes we do exist) I have to wonder why so many other white men seem to vote religiously for the GOP. What has the GOP done at all for working class white men? I mean in many ways the Democrats are no better, but the GOP and Donald Trump doesn't give a damn about working class white men, or working class people period. Why white men seem to determined to put GOP politicians in power is beyond me. It's bizarre.
 
Puigb said:
As a white man myself (well a white hispanic man, yes we do exist) I have to wonder why so many other white men seem to vote religiously for the GOP. What has the GOP done at all for working class white men? I mean in many ways the Democrats are no better, but the GOP and Donald Trump doesn't give a damn about working class white men, or working class people period. Why white men seem to determined to put GOP politicians in power is beyond me. It's bizarre.
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Something to do with the GOP somehow being identified as masculine. Guns, big guts, bad teeth, funny ball cap hats..."Git er Done" types. It's all bull****, of course. But, they buy it.
 
calamity said:
I just hope they are right and that the polls are wrong. I really do not want to see a tight election. In fact, if this country had any decency, Trump would lose in a rout.
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Do not count on it. Many people do want change and many are desperate enough to vote for someone like Trump who, unfortunately, is not the person you would want to be president.
 
Glowpun said:
Do not count on it. Many people do want change and many are desperate enough to vote for someone like Trump who, unfortunately, is not the person you would want to be president.
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And, sadly, people still dumb enough to think Mexico will pay for the wall.
 
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