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Thread: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

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    2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    The current home page for 'the green papers' is The Green Papers: United States Off Year Election 2017 .

    The top of this home page shows upcoming elections; such as the South Carolina CD 5 Special Runoff (gop) 5/16/17; Montana at-large special election 5/25/17; South Carolina CD 5 and Georgia CD 6 Special Elections on 6/20/17;

    New Jersey state primary on 6/6/17; Virginia state primary on 6/13/17; general elections in NJ and VA on 11/7/17 ..
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    Using the link in the OP, the links within the red typing show who the new candidates are each new day for major state offices along with federal house and senate offices. Just above the red typing is : "What's New" previous entries for all states.

    In today's news, special election Kansas CD-4 had its vote totals changed, showing the GOP Estes winning going from 6.8% down to 6.2%, well down from Pompeo winning KS-4 by 31.1% last year and trump winning it by 22.7%.

    Kansas is already on the Dem's radar list with KS-2 Jenkins retiring and KS-3 Yoder having his CD won by Clinton by 1.2%. KS-4 Estes is now on the list against the same Democrat he edged recently, Thompson. The very conservative KS-1 will have another bruising GOP primary between current congressman Marshall and former congressman Huelskamp .
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    Norman edged Pope by 200 votes, 17,772 to 17,572 for the GOP runoff in SC-5 tonight and will run against DEM Parnell on 6/20 for Mulvaney's old seat. Mulvaney won this seat by 20.3% last fall while trump won it by 18.5%, so this one is rated GOP safe.

    The original link in the OP shows over 40 additions to the nation's candidate list for next year. For Alabama's special Senate election this year, Congressman Brooks announced this week to challenge sitting senator Strange in August, with a probable primary runoff in September, and the general in December.

    Coming up in 9 days is the big at-large CD special election in Montana between DEM Quist and GOP Gianforte. The other big one, of course, is GA-6 on 6/20. If GOPs retain all three CDs, they'll be back to a 241-194 lead .
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    Rep. Chaffetz said to be resigning this June 30. He won UT-3 BY 46.92% last year, 73.46 to 26.54. For POTUS, trump = 47.18, McMullin = 24.47, Clinton = 23.27, other = 5.08.

    Salt Lake County went for Clinton=175,863 to trump = 138,043 to McMullin = 79,800 to other = 25,337. However, since Salt Lake County is gerrymandered into three CDs, DEMs won none of those seats.

    DEMs are excited about this seat for 2018 with a great candidate, Dr. Kathryn Allen. The special election will depend on the Utah governor .
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    Herbert Declares Special Election for Chaffetz’s Seat, Cox Provides Details – Utah Political Capitol

    Active Twitter feed after story; primary on August 15 and general on 11/7/17. Candidates do not have to live in Utah-3 for this special election.

    GOPs are up to nine house members who will not be up for reelection in 2018, six not on the original list of 59 that DEMs targeted.

    Free Cook Political Report shows house, senate and governor races they rate as likely, lean or or toss-up .
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana

    There are state maps by county for president and governor from the 2016 election, showing where Quist and Gianforte will need to be successful to win.

    The libertarian almost made up the difference in the governor's race where Bullock beat Gianforte by 19,818 votes or 3.9% and there is a libertarian in this race. Polls close at 10:00 Eastern .
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    Cook's PVI calculation shows GA-6 as R +8 and SC-5 as R +9 going into the 6/20 special elections.

    In SC-5, DEM Archie Parnell has cut the lead to 50-40 in a recent poll, trailing GOP Ralph Norman.

    In GA-6, recent polls between Ossoff and Handel have been within the margin of error.

    Important primaries take place at the state level in June for VA and NJ with general elections 11/7/17 .
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    New Jersey with statewide primary for governor and other state offices tomorrow. Virginia next Tuesday. CA CD-34 runoff tomorrow with 2 DEMs.

    With all the nationwide approval polls out there, statewide approval polls for the last two months are the ones that correlate to the electoral college IMHO.

    I just type in 'trump approval ____' and search. The latest poll for 'trump approval Texas' gives Texas Lyceum on 4/19, with Gov. Abbott at 53-31 and trump at 42-54, and Cruz/O'Rourke at 30-30-37 .
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    Re: 2017/2018 Special Elections and 2018 Previews

    Alabama donor forms anti-Strange PAC

    Looks like a messy GOP Alabama primary for Senator 8/15/17, in which Sen. Strange must make the top two of 11 candidates including Rep. Brooks and former Chief Justice Roy Moore.

    With today being Rep. Chaffetz's last day, Utah also has its primary to fill his seat on 8/15 .
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