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Georgia CD-6 Special Election

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NIMBY
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I'm using a link from FOX first for those who like to rhetorically shoot messengers. Comments to the following article are PRICE-less. The article was also hard to find on FOX.

Democrats throw millions, Hollywood punch into Georgia House race | Fox News

It's actually worth it for those like me who rarely visit FOX to check out the headlines on their front page to see what the other side of the aisle is reading.

This link is from Politico, though there are plenty more from huffpost and dailykos with stuff like facts and quotes, though their snarky commentary is obviously liberal:

Trump slams Democratic candidate in Georgia's special election - POLITICO

Do you believe that each of the 50 states should have entirely different techniques to elect a federal lawmaker whose vote will affect those in other states.

Kansas just had a CD election where the 3 candidates were nominated by convention, D--R--L. Information on all elections in 2017 can be found here:

The Green Papers: United States Off Year Election 2017

In Georgia, there are 18 candidates on the ballot tomorrow in a jungle primary which can only be won by a candidate if he/she gets 50% +1, practically impossible, guaranteeing a runoff, which we see done in other states, but differently.

The Georgia run-off is June 20 and guarantees we stay on an election footing, with MT, SC and CA still to be determined. As well, odd-year elections in Nov. 2017 in VA and NJ are still to be held, which historically have very low voter turnout .
 
most districts are so gerrymandered that i doubt we'll see a flip in the short term.
 
Helix said:
most districts are so gerrymandered that i doubt we'll see a flip in the short term.
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Except for those like MT-AL which goes off this 5/25. Bernie is now campaigning for Rob Quist and there are five candidates, as shown from this link which has no ads or blogs:

Montana 2017 General Election

By convention, there's a D--R--L--G--WI
 
Not seeing Ossoff winning. He'll take a commanding lead in the votes tomorrow, but he won't crack 50%. And then the grind of the runoff will do him in. The district may have only gone for Trump by 1%, but it's extremely Republican down ballot. And Republicans have spent a ton of money and effort making Ossoff out to be a liberal Pelosi minion. And those types of attacks will probably play extremely well in GA-6.
 
NIMBY said:
Except for those like MT-AL which goes off this 5/25. Bernie is now campaigning for Rob Quist and there are five candidates, as shown from this link which has no ads or blogs:

Montana 2017 General Election

By convention, there's a D--R--L--G--WI
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there's generally a midterm backlash against a new president. these districts are safe enough that i wonder if we'll see much of a change, though. it's possible, considering that Trump isn't your typical polarizing politician, but i doubt that this particular seat is going to flip Democratic.
 
Helix said:
there's generally a midterm backlash against a new president. these districts are safe enough that i wonder if we'll see much of a change, though. it's possible, considering that Trump isn't your typical polarizing politician, but i doubt that this particular seat is going to flip Democratic.
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Not typical, but still polarizing. His disapproval is around 50% or more, depending on what poll you look at. For non-gerrymandered districts there's a chance.
 
lurchadams said:
Not typical, but still polarizing. His disapproval is around 50% or more, depending on what poll you look at. For non-gerrymandered districts there's a chance.
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In a CD that trump barely won, it's good to see trump tweeting against Ossoff.

The top 4 GOPs have been attacking each other and GOP dark money has been attacking fellow GOPs, along with Ossoff of course .
 
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lurchadams said:
Not typical, but still polarizing. His disapproval is around 50% or more, depending on what poll you look at. For non-gerrymandered districts there's a chance.
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he's not your typical polarizing politician because he's more than next level when it comes to polarizing. still, these districts were designed to weather almost any storm short of total economic collapse. it's part of what makes gerrymandering so disgusting.
 
NIMBY said:
In a CD that trump barely won, it's good to see trump tweeting again Ossoff.

The top 4 GOPs have been attacking each other and GOP dark money has been attacking fellow GOPs, along with Ossoff of course .
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Well, all those things are sure helpful to Ossoff! Thanks!
 
Anagram said:
Not seeing Ossoff winning. He'll take a commanding lead in the votes tomorrow, but he won't crack 50%. And then the grind of the runoff will do him in. The district may have only gone for Trump by 1%, but it's extremely Republican down ballot. And Republicans have spent a ton of money and effort making Ossoff out to be a liberal Pelosi minion. And those types of attacks will probably play extremely well in GA-6.
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The fact that GOPs have had to spend millions in dark money trashing Ossoff, as well as the top 4 GOPs trashing each other, shows where the GOP currently is down ballot.

It also shows why McCain/Finegold should have been reupped in favor of Citizens United 1.0/2.0.

While Ossoff may be getting some money from big donors, he's also getting huge sums in the way Sen. Sanders did, with small donations .
 
Helix said:
he's not your typical polarizing politician because he's more than next level when it comes to polarizing. still, these districts were designed to weather almost any storm short of total economic collapse. it's part of what makes gerrymandering so disgusting.
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This special election is another reason I believe in 3-year congressional terms, to go with 6-year senate and 6-year POTUS terms. 24/7/365 election cycle.

For federal offices, I believe all 50 states should use the same laws/rules in the way it elects lawmakers, since their votes affect citizens in every other state .
 
NIMBY said:
This special election is another reason I believe in 3-year congressional terms, to go with 6-year senate and 6-year POTUS terms. 24/7/365 election cycle.

For federal offices, I believe all 50 states should use the same laws/rules in the way it elects lawmakers, since their votes affect citizens in every other state .
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that's an interesting proposal.

as for congress, i'm not huge on two year terms for representatives. that means they're always campaigning. i don't think that this has worked out very well in practice.
 
Helix said:
that's an interesting proposal.

as for congress, i'm not huge on two year terms for representatives. that means they're always campaigning. i don't think that this has worked out very well in practice.
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It is extremely likely that this special election will have two elections, today, since no candidate will receive a majority and 6.20.17 between the top two. Note that in general elections in GA, it is possible to have 4 elections for any office; 2 for the majority primary and 2 for the majority general.

If GOPs hold serve 4-1 on the vacant CDs, they'll have a 241-194 advantage and a better chance to do HC, which is still their top priority, flying under the radar.

CA had a 'top two' special election to fill CD-34 on 4.4.17. Two DEMs will be in a runoff since no candidate got 50% + 1. This CD only had about 10% of the normal turnout. A 6.6.17 runoff means 2 elections.

SC has a 'top two' primary on 5.2.17, with 3 DEMs and 7 GOPs; almost guaranteeing a runoff on 5.16.17 for DEMs and GOPs; where voters must vote in the same party runoff; there are four other parties; the general is then 6.20.17 without the majority rule; three elections in less than two months

Then there's KS-4, which has the same rules as the upcoming MT-AL. Candidates are chosen from conventions; KS had D--R--L; no majority rule. In MT, there will be 5 candidates; D--R--G--L--WI; no majority rule.

The top two system looks like the best way for a 3rd party to get seats in state or federal offices.

Here's a fun fact from Vermont. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the Nov. general election for governor or Lt. Gov., the state legislature chooses the next governor or Lt. Gov.
 
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GA-6 has 445,095 registered voters, 326,005 ( 73.2% ) who voted last year, well above the national average for CDs.

With KS-4; 120,897 voters voted two weeks ago versus 275,251 last year, a decrease of 56% .
 
It's slow---and early---I'm seeing 55,000 total votes and Ossoff at 61% .
 
NIMBY said:
It's slow---and early---I'm seeing 55,000 total votes and Ossoff at 61% .
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They extended polling hours due to issues.

The upside is the GOP ran four people. So, they are bleeding votes from each other. It's about time the R's shoot themselves in the foot instead of the other way around. :lol:
 
calamity said:
They extended polling hours due to issues.

The upside is the GOP ran four people. So, they are bleeding votes from each other. It's about time the R's shoot themselves in the foot instead of the other way around. :lol:
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Either way, DEMs win here, with trump tweeting 6 times today. 9 more weeks of a proxy war in a deep red CD will serve the DEMs well and will overlap the MT-AL CD.

Handel will be the opponent and her 3 GOP opponents trashed her with ads that will come in handy. Not to mention the GOP dark money that pounded Handel.

DEMs can't win the GOP way in the long run. They'll have to spend the money, but do it in a positive, issue-oriented pragmatic way that the millenial Ossoff has done .
 
NIMBY said:
Either way, DEMs win here, with trump tweeting 6 times today. 9 more weeks of a proxy war in a deep red CD will serve the DEMs well and will overlap the MT-AL CD.

Handel will be the opponent and her 3 GOP opponents trashed her with ads that will come in handy. Not to mention the GOP dark money that pounded Handel.

DEMs can't win the GOP way in the long run. They'll have to spend the money, but do it in a positive, issue-oriented pragmatic way that the millenial Ossoff has done .
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Someone posted in a thread that they will have a run-off if less than 50% are received by the leaders.
 
calamity said:
Someone posted in a thread that they will have a run-off if less than 50% are received by the leaders.
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Ossoff has slipped to 53.94%; Handel is 2nd at 17.62%. I'd feel better if the other 4 DEMs weren't on the ballot, though their total is small.

The only way for a DEM to win one of these jungle primary special elections or finish 2nd in a red CD is to have only one candidate.

As for the runoff, Ossoff starts with his votes and Handel starts with her votes and let the already most expensive CD race that I know of get started round 2 .
 
NIMBY said:
Ossoff has slipped to 53.94%; Handel is 2nd at 17.62%. I'd feel better if the other 4 DEMs weren't on the ballot, though their total is small.

The only way for a DEM to win one of these jungle primary special elections or finish 2nd in a red CD is to have only one candidate.

As for the runoff, Ossoff starts with his votes and Handel starts with her votes and let the already most expensive CD race that I know of get started round 2 .
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Yeah, the experts are predicting Ossoff may end up with 49%. Close enough to hope he breaks 50, IMO.
 
NIMBY said:
50.13 to 18.24 with 136,000 votes
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Amazing for a liberal in that district. Definitely the Trump effect in action.
 
calamity said:
Amazing for a liberal in that district. Definitely the Trump effect in action.
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Not really, he outperformed clinton by 1.3% in Cobb and Dekalb is a disappointment. NYT says he'll end up with 48%. 8 million dollars and he still can't win a jungle primary.
 
calamity said:
Amazing for a liberal in that district. Definitely the Trump effect in action.
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More of a pragmatic moderate.

'Pelosi Liberal' will be the 'lying smear' trump and GOP dark money throws at him the next 9 weeks.

You're already seeing that in the other thread started today.

The GOP has the MT-AL to worry about also .
 
DarkWizard12 said:
Not really, he outperformed clinton by 1.3% in Cobb and Dekalb is a disappointment. NYT says he'll end up with 48%. 8 million dollars and he still can't win a jungle primary.
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Jungle primaries are meant to hold down Democrats in the South.

Ossoff hasn't spent all that money and still has the same ground game ready to start back up tomorrow.

All the GOP has is dark money citizens divided smears, including at each other in the primary that Ossoff will use.

Ossoff starts with what is currently 71,576 votes while Handel has 25,727 .
 
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