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The GOP’s Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill

danarhea said:
That's legal in Florida? In Texas, it's a misdemeanor to take a selfie of yourself or your ballot in the voting booth.
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I'm in New Hampshire, and yes, it's legal. The ban was recently lifted because our Supremes said it was Unconstitutional.
 
TurtleDude said:
what happened in the last senate race-a couple days ago?
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You mean the one that put a Republican Senator Kennedy in office?

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cpwill said:
Well done, Trump Primary Voters.
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As bad as this might seem, remember, they derived this data from POLLS.

Whenever I hear, ....the POLLS say...." blah, blah, blah", you can pretty much guarantee it is only projection, wishful thinking, or planned optimism, or complete BS, like they normally are.

Hasn't this last election taught us to look somewhere else for valid data?
 
RetiredNSmilin said:
As bad as this might seem, remember, they derived this data from POLLS.

Whenever I hear, ....the POLLS say...." blah, blah, blah", you can pretty much guarantee it is only projection, wishful thinking, or planned optimism, or complete BS, like they normally are.

Hasn't this last election taught us to look somewhere else for valid data?
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Nope. Recommend reading back through polling during primary, and then 538's coverage the last ten days before the election.

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cpwill said:
Nope. Recommend reading back through polling during primary, and then 538's coverage the last ten days before the election.

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Thank you, I would LOVE to see an accurate POLL just for once.
538 you say?
 
RetiredNSmilin said:
Thank you, I would LOVE to see an accurate POLL just for once.
538 you say?
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All polls have a margin of error. 538 were the people being attacked by New York Times, et.al. for pointing out that Trump was within it.

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cpwill said:
All polls have a margin of error. 538 were the people being attacked by New York Times, et.al. for pointing out that Trump was within it.

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Congrats on all your precise gloom and doom predictions and whoever you ended up voting for winning so decisively, ha ha ha. Who, btw, was the lucky candidate you ended up going with? And aren't you even just a little less uneasy with Trump as president elect than a Hillary?
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
Congrats on all your precise gloom and doom predictions and whoever you ended up voting for winning so decisively, ha ha ha. Who, btw, was the lucky candidate you ended up going with? And aren't you even just a little less uneasy with Trump as president elect than a Hillary?
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Naturally. He didn't stop being Trump just because he won - if anything, likely less so.

I don't vote for who I think will win. Don't think much of those who do, TBH. Seems a pathetic form of bandwaggoning, for which you will receive no reward. I voted McMullin, and knew he would lose. I also knew I wouldn't feel ashamed of my vote, which was far better than the reverse.

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cpwill said:
Naturally. He didn't stop being Trump just because he won - if anything, likely less so.

I don't vote for who I think will win. Don't think much of those who do, TBH. Seems a pathetic form of bandwaggoning, for which you will receive no reward. I voted McMullin, and knew he would lose. I also knew I wouldn't feel ashamed of my vote, which was far better than the reverse.

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Yeah, I didn't vote, was in Colombia at the time.

Felt confident, tho, that the polls were way way skewed, could not help but notice how overtly desperate the MSM got at the end. At the same time, would have, had I been in position, voted for Trump to save my country from Hillary.

And, since you have been so candid, will add that while I can somewhat relate/understand the impulse, however deep or shallow, I cannot but feel a bit contemptuous of those that would put personal pride over the welfare of the nation.
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
Yeah, I didn't vote, was in Colombia at the time.

Felt confident, tho, that the polls were way way skewed, could not help but notice how overtly desperate the MSM got at the end. At the same time, would have, had I been in position, voted for Trump to save my country from Hillary.

And, since you have been so candid, will add that while I can somewhat relate/understand the impulse, however deep or shallow, I cannot but feel a bit contemptuous of those that would put personal pride over the welfare of the nation.
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:shrug: well, given that neither of the major party candidates would benefit the common welfare, my choices were down to "what can I do with my miniscule impact to help my country long term?" The answer, as best as I could figure, was a conservative third party candidate, so that the GOP would have one more conservative they would know they should try to win back.

In a choice between shooting ourselves or asphyxiating ourselves, I voted that maybe we should reconsider whether life still had something to offer.

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cpwill said:
:shrug: well, given that neither of the major party candidates would benefit the common welfare, my choices were down to "what can I do with my miniscule impact to help my country long term?" The answer, as best as I could figure, was a conservative third party candidate, so that the GOP would have one more conservative they would know they should try to win back.

In a choice between shooting ourselves or asphyxiating ourselves, I voted that maybe we should reconsider whether life still had something to offer.

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So everything Trump has done so far, all the appointments he has made and the way he is going about it, is making you quake in your boots. The country is doomed as far as you can tell, right?
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
So everything Trump has done so far, all the appointments he has made and the way he is going about it, is making you quake in your boots. The country is doomed as far as you can tell, right?
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No, that's a strawman version of my argument. Like Clinton, he's fine some things I approve of, and some I don't. Like Clinton, he's likely to govern as a big government progressive.

But we'll see. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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With 25 DEMs up for reelection in pretty unfriendly places in 2018, McConnell could have a filibuster proof Senate in 2019.

This is why I don't think he'll pull the nuclear trigger all the way for the next two years--he won't have to--too many scared DEMs .

cpwill said:
Naturally. He didn't stop being Trump just because he won - if anything, likely less so.

I don't vote for who I think will win. Don't think much of those who do, TBH. Seems a pathetic form of bandwaggoning, for which you will receive no reward. I voted McMullin, and knew he would lose. I also knew I wouldn't feel ashamed of my vote, which was far better than the reverse.

Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk
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cpwill said:
No, that's a strawman version of my argument. Like Clinton, he's fine some things I approve of, and some I don't. Like Clinton, he's likely to govern as a big government progressive.

But we'll see. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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Strawman version my ass.

Here is how YOU described it:

cpwill said:
In a choice between shooting ourselves or asphyxiating ourselves, I voted that maybe we should reconsider whether life still had something to offer.
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If you don't actually mean what you say, if its not quite as important to the long/short term health of the country as you so starkly made it out to be, then maybe your self serving vote was, indeed, on that shallow end of the impulse spectrum... seems obvious now that it was.

At least you were cornered into finally coming clean.

Not only were your predictions dire and flat out wrong, our side rode Trumps coattails, we were stronger because of him. AND, we will have the SCOTUS pick. Flat out smarmy wrong in all directions.
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
Strawman version my ass.

Here is how YOU described it:



If you don't actually mean what you say, if its not quite as important to the long/short term health of the country as you so starkly made it out to be, then maybe your self serving vote was, indeed, on that shallow end of the impulse spectrum... seems obvious now that it was.

At least you were cornered into finally coming clean.

Not only were your predictions dire and flat out wrong, our side rode Trumps coattails, we were stronger because of him. AND, we will have the SCOTUS pick. Flat out smarmy wrong in all directions.
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There were few if any trump coattails.

I use numbers from here: 2016 General Election

Incumbent GOP Senators in WI, OH, PA, IA, and FL--states trump flipped--all performed better than trump.

They dragged trump's ass across the finish line--that's why Priebus is Chief of Staff.

GOP Senatorial Incumbents in the red states of GA, NC, and AZ all did better than trump.

Feel free to check out all 34 Senate races and 435 House races.

Blunt in MO was helped by trump against a very good DEM candidate.

The GOP won the total House vote in 2016, trump lost the total vote, the GOP lost the total House vote in 2014 and lost 6 seats this term .
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
Strawman version my ass.
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No, just a strawman version. I never pretended that everything either candidate did would be horrendous, that all their appointments would be awful, or that I would be shaking in my boots. I claimed both are bad, and I stand by that, though, of course, I hope Trump proves me wrong, as I would have hoped that Hillary would prove me wrong, had she won.

At least you were cornered into finally coming clean.
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:shrug: I've been pretty consistent on this. There is nothing to "come clean" from.

Not only were your predictions dire and flat out wrong, our side rode Trumps coattails, we were stronger because of him.
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Well that's an interesting claim. I wonder in what states did GOP senators run behind Trump? Rubio's margin in Florida, for example, was six times larger than Trump's. John McCain ran ahead of Trump. Richard Burr ran ahead of Trump. Rob Portman ran ahead of Trump. Ron Johnson ran ahead of Trump. Todd Young didn't. Chuck Grassley ran ahead of Trump. Pat Toomey ran ahead of Trump. Mike Crap ran ahead of Trump. Mike Lee ran ahead of Trump.....

I'm not seeing a whole lot of evidence for Trump having great coat tails.
 
cpwill said:
No, just a strawman version. I never pretended that everything either candidate did would be horrendous, that all their appointments would be awful, or that I would be shaking in my boots. I claimed both are bad, and I stand by that, though, of course, I hope Trump proves me wrong, as I would have hoped that Hillary would prove me wrong, had she won.



:shrug: I've been pretty consistent on this. There is nothing to "come clean" from.



Well that's an interesting claim. I wonder in what states did GOP senators run behind Trump? Rubio's margin in Florida, for example, was six times larger than Trump's. John McCain ran ahead of Trump. Richard Burr ran ahead of Trump. Rob Portman ran ahead of Trump. Ron Johnson ran ahead of Trump. Todd Young didn't. Chuck Grassley ran ahead of Trump. Pat Toomey ran ahead of Trump. Mike Crap ran ahead of Trump. Mike Lee ran ahead of Trump.....

I'm not seeing a whole lot of evidence for Trump having great coat tails.
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I think it is kind of telling, again, that a "conservative" should think only in terms of at the Big Government Federal level and not even mention, most likely did not even consider, what happened at the state level. As an example, Southern region wide in state legislatures the Republicans were up 22 seats and took complete control of all the South's legislatures. https://www.facingsouth.org/2016/11...-strengthen-power-southern-state-legislatures

Trump also helped down ballot in other states... you can read some of the results yourself

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/...ly-well-in-new-york-hillary-had-no-coattails/

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/elec...cle_073d5c8c-4e80-5e94-8885-90edc95819d9.html

http://www.cnbc.com/heres-a-map-of-the-us-counties-that-flipped-to-trump-from-democrats/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-flipped-parties-to-swing-the-2016-election/

https://morningconsult.com/2016/11/09/senate-gop-rides-trumps-coattails-victory-holds-majority/


But on the VERY wrong and pessimistic side, the live by stupid polls die by stupid polls examples:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ould-affect-the-house-and-state-legislatures/

And then, of course, here is your original OP article, which proved woefully wrong...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ding-the-senate-are-following-trump-downhill/ and to which you were ready, dare one say anxious, to blame Trump for losing the senate, but, of course, unwilling now to give him any credit whatsoever for helping them instead maintain it. Those dire predictions, dearly held were Chumpish, not Trumpish.


This is much cheerier: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/...ernment-with-32-legislatures-and-33-governors

To make the claim that Trump was going to mightily hurt Republicans down ballot and then be so reluctant to give credit after victory, a huge victory, was obtained... is sour grapes. Cheer up, as has been maintained from the very beginning, Trump will be better, way way way better for America than the criminal, Hillary.

An absolute NO BRAINER... but those with should most assuredly have gotten it.
 
NIMBY said:
There were few if any trump coattails.

I use numbers from here: 2016 General Election

Incumbent GOP Senators in WI, OH, PA, IA, and FL--states trump flipped--all performed better than trump.

They dragged trump's ass across the finish line--that's why Priebus is Chief of Staff.

GOP Senatorial Incumbents in the red states of GA, NC, and AZ all did better than trump.

Feel free to check out all 34 Senate races and 435 House races.

Blunt in MO was helped by trump against a very good DEM candidate.

The GOP won the total House vote in 2016, trump lost the total vote, the GOP lost the total House vote in 2014 and lost 6 seats this term .
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Yeah yeah yeah.

Read post #43 as well, as it addresses the half thought out assertions you present here well enough.
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
I think it is kind of telling, again, that a "conservative" should think only in terms of at the Big Government Federal level and not even mention, most likely did not even consider, what happened at the state level.
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:shrug: Unlike the orange anger monkey who just got elected POTUS, I'm all about limiting the Federal Government and the Imperial Presidency. So yes, it matters to me that we get a strong Congress to try to yank some of that power back.

As an example, Southern region wide in state legislatures the Republicans were up 22 seats and took complete control of all the South's legislatures. https://www.facingsouth.org/2016/11...-strengthen-power-southern-state-legislatures
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Yeah. You know what that data point doesn't do? Give credit for it to Trump coattails.

Trump also helped down ballot in other states... you can read some of the results yourself
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Fascinating. Let's do so :)

Trump did shockingly well in New York, Hillary had ?no coattails? « Hot Air
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This is an article about Hillary not having coat tails in a race where the Democrat still won, in New York, which Trump once boasted he might win, where, in fact, he was handily defeated.

Trump's coattails, large turnout, straight-party voting cited for GOP increases in statehouse - Tulsa World: Election Results
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This is an article that provides no evidence whatsoever that Trump ran ahead of other Republican candidates. The evidence provided that Trump had coat tails is a single quote by a state-level GOP political consultant.

http://www.cnbc.com/heres-a-map-of-the-us-counties-that-flipped-to-trump-from-democrats/
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This is just a discussion of counties that voted for Obama which then voted for Trump. It says precisely nothing about whether or not Trump ran ahead of or behind the Republican candidates in those areas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-flipped-parties-to-swing-the-2016-election/
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This is the same.

https://morningconsult.com/2016/11/09/senate-gop-rides-trumps-coattails-victory-holds-majority/
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Hilariously, this article unintentionally makes the opposite case of that which you want to make - as it lists a series of GOP senators who, as I have already linked for you, ran ahead of Trump.

Oh, wait, no - they mention one state that I didn't go through before. Missouri. Where, it turns out, Roy Blunt ran behind Trump. So yes - congrats. Trump had coat tails in the great Swing State of Missouri :)
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
Nimby said:
There were few if any trump coattails.

I use numbers from here: 2016 General Election

Incumbent GOP Senators in WI, OH, PA, IA, and FL--states trump flipped--all performed better than trump.
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Yeah yeah yeah.

Read post #43 as well, as it addresses the half thought out assertions you present here well enough.
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I'll save you the clicks, Nimby. Nothing that he put in Post 43 even manages to address, much less counter, your points. Broadly, the GOP outperformed Trump, it didn't ride his coat tails.
 
cpwill said:
I'll save you the clicks, Nimby. Nothing that he put in Post 43 even manages to address, much less counter, your points. Broadly, the GOP outperformed Trump, it didn't ride his coat tails.
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Which is why trump appointed Priebus as Chief of Staff and Romney's niece from MI as RNC chair.

It's also why trump continues to shore up his flipped states with regular Twitter rants.

Neither party has figured out how to deal with him yet, for entirely different reasons.

Meanwhile, I'm watching my DEMs disintegrate, with no clue how they've been losing since 2010.

25 DEM Senators to cover in 2018; while McConnell/Priebus just covered 22 of 24.

I'm beginning to believe that never trump was a smokescreen to lull DEMs to sleep .
 
cpwill said:
I'll save you the clicks, Nimby. Nothing that he put in Post 43 even manages to address, much less counter, your points. Broadly, the GOP outperformed Trump, it didn't ride his coat tails.
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NIMBY said:
There were few if any trump coattails.

I use numbers from here: 2016 General Election

Incumbent GOP Senators in WI, OH, PA, IA, and FL--states trump flipped--all performed better than trump.

They dragged trump's ass across the finish line--that's why Priebus is Chief of Staff.

GOP Senatorial Incumbents in the red states of GA, NC, and AZ all did better than trump.

Feel free to check out all 34 Senate races and 435 House races.

Blunt in MO was helped by trump against a very good DEM candidate.

The GOP won the total House vote in 2016, trump lost the total vote, the GOP lost the total House vote in 2014 and lost 6 seats this term .
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I would agree NIMBY, if you cannot read and/or comprehend any better than cpwon't, best save your clicks.

I will give you a little for instance to whet your appetite until I have time to trounce his lame post thoroughly... ya see, he don't read so good.

cpwill said:
Yeah. You know what that data point doesn't do? Give credit for it to Trump coattails.
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You seem to be getting a high sniffing your own **** man, back off the stuff.


The coattail effect is the tendency for a popular political party leader to attract votes for other candidates of the same party in an election.

THE ENTIRE ARTICLE GIVES CREDIT TO TRUMP

Jesus, truly...can you not read? I'll give a couple of examples:

Hell, to start off with, the title of the damned article is Trump helps Republicans strengthen power in Southern state legislatures

Okay, not good enough... Lets see, how about “Heading into Election Day, the last Democratic holdout in the South was the Kentucky House, where the party maintained a 53-46 majority. But in a state where Trump won 63 percent of the vote, Republicans gained a staggering 18 seats in Kentucky's lower chamber. The GOP now enjoys a 63-46 majority in the Kentucky House."????

Still not good enough, huh? Hmmmm...

Well, what about this one, “In neighboring West Virginia, Trump garnered 69 percent of the presidential vote. Democrats picked up one seat in the state House but lost four in the Senate, where Republicans now have a 10-seat majority."????

Or perhaps, “Trump won 61 percent of votes in Tennessee, where Republicans added two seats to their majority in the Tennessee House and kept their 28-5 margin in the state Senate"?????

And this with constantly dwindling numbers from which to even post gains as the Dems are seemingly an endangered species heading towards extinction if they don't watch out, particularly on the state level.
 
Gaugingcatenate said:
I would agree NIMBY, if you cannot read and/or comprehend any better than cpwon't, best save your clicks.

I will give you a little for instance to whet your appetite until I have time to trounce his lame post thoroughly... ya see, he don't read so good.



You seem to be getting a high sniffing your own **** man, back off the stuff.


The coattail effect is the tendency for a popular political party leader to attract votes for other candidates of the same party in an election.

THE ENTIRE ARTICLE GIVES CREDIT TO TRUMP

Jesus, truly...can you not read? I'll give a couple of examples:

Hell, to start off with, the title of the damned article is Trump helps Republicans strengthen power in Southern state legislatures

Okay, not good enough... Lets see, how about “Heading into Election Day, the last Democratic holdout in the South was the Kentucky House, where the party maintained a 53-46 majority. But in a state where Trump won 63 percent of the vote, Republicans gained a staggering 18 seats in Kentucky's lower chamber. The GOP now enjoys a 63-46 majority in the Kentucky House."????

Still not good enough, huh? Hmmmm...

Well, what about this one, “In neighboring West Virginia, Trump garnered 69 percent of the presidential vote. Democrats picked up one seat in the state House but lost four in the Senate, where Republicans now have a 10-seat majority."????

Or perhaps, “Trump won 61 percent of votes in Tennessee, where Republicans added two seats to their majority in the Tennessee House and kept their 28-5 margin in the state Senate"?????

And this with constantly dwindling numbers from which to even post gains as the Dems are seemingly an endangered species heading towards extinction if they don't watch out, particularly on the state level.
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Your focus is on three deep red southern states and their state legislatures with ZERO comparative numbers between trump and individual races.

My focus was on Federal races--34 Senate and 435 Representatives--WITH comparative numbers between trump and individual races. Which clearly show incumbent GOP Senators in five swing Obama states outpolling trump.

Too bad for the DEMs you weren't running the RNC .
 
Just a quick note. Romney got 4,000 more votes than trump in Wisconsin in 2012 and lost big. Yet trump won by 23, 000. 180,000 voted 3rd party this time compared to 40,000 last time. Johnson won his Senate seat by 100,000, far out-pacing trump. Since Finegold was a Sanders voter favorite, my conclusion is that Sanders voters didn't turn out. 97,000 less voters in Wisconsin in 2016 than in 2012 .

cpwill said:
:shrug: Unlike the orange anger monkey who just got elected POTUS, I'm all about limiting the Federal Government and the Imperial Presidency. So yes, it matters to me that we get a strong Congress to try to yank some of that power back.



Yeah. You know what that data point doesn't do? Give credit for it to Trump coattails.



Fascinating. Let's do so :)



This is an article about Hillary not having coat tails in a race where the Democrat still won, in New York, which Trump once boasted he might win, where, in fact, he was handily defeated.



This is an article that provides no evidence whatsoever that Trump ran ahead of other Republican candidates. The evidence provided that Trump had coat tails is a single quote by a state-level GOP political consultant.



This is just a discussion of counties that voted for Obama which then voted for Trump. It says precisely nothing about whether or not Trump ran ahead of or behind the Republican candidates in those areas.



This is the same.



Hilariously, this article unintentionally makes the opposite case of that which you want to make - as it lists a series of GOP senators who, as I have already linked for you, ran ahead of Trump.

Oh, wait, no - they mention one state that I didn't go through before. Missouri. Where, it turns out, Roy Blunt ran behind Trump. So yes - congrats. Trump had coat tails in the great Swing State of Missouri :)
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