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White Left-Leaning Moderates Didn't Show Up?

Cameron

Cameron

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I think pundits get too caught up in the percentages of these exit polls and don't pay enough attention to the actual, underlying numbers. The following are approximate, given that they are derived from exit polls, and given that the complete numbers for 2012 may not be fully in yet. But here are the best estimates we have of the precise numbers of different types of people who voted:

Number of total voters in 2012: 128,871,984
Number of total voters in 2008: 129,391,711
Number of total voters in 2004: 121,069,054

Number of white voters in 2012: 92,787,828
Number of white voters in 2008: 95,749,866
Number of white voters in 2004: 93,223,171

Number of latino voters in 2012: 12,939,171
Number of latino voters in 2008: 11,645,253
Number of latino voters in 2004: 9.685,524

Number of black voters in 2012: 16,753,357
Number of black voters in 2008: 16,820,922
Number of black voters in 2004: 13,317,595


As you can see, about three million fewer white voters voted in 2012 than in 2008. This, as opposed to significantly increased numbers of blacks and latinos voting, seems to be what primarily accounted for white voters' decreased share of the vote this year.

So that sounds pretty positive for Republicans, right? Since they won pretty much all categories of the white vote? And the Democrats may have an even bigger problem with whites than was originally thought? Well, at least as to the last part, maybe not…

Number of white voters for Democrats in 2012: 36,187,253
Number of white voters for Democrats in 2008: 41,172,442
Number of white voters for Democrats in 2004: 38,221,500

Number of white voters for Republicans in 2012: 54,744,818
Number of white voters for Republicans in 2008: 52,662,426
Number of white voters for Republicans in 2004: 54,069,439

Number of conservative voters for Republicans in 2012: 36,986,259
Number of conservative voters for Republicans in 2008: 34,314,681
Number of conservative voters for Republicans in 2004: 34,577,321

Number of liberal voters for Democrats in 2012: 27.797,476
Number of liberal voters for Democrats in 2008: 25,334,897
Number of liberal voters for Democrats in 2004: 21,610,826

Number of moderate voters in 2012: 52,837,513
Number of moderate voters in 2008: 56,932,352
Number of moderate voters in 2004: 54,481,074

Number of moderate voters for Democrats in 2012: 29,598,007
Number of moderate voters for Democrats in 2008: 34,159,411
Number of moderate voters for Democrats in 2004: 29,419,780

Number of moderate voters for Republicans in 2012: 21,663,380
Number of moderate voters for Republicans in 2008: 22,203,617
Number of moderate voters for Republicans in 2004: 24,516,483


The number of conservative republican voters and liberal democratic voters were actually the highest either have been in years. Only the number of moderate voters was down -- by a little over 4 million.

The number of moderates voting for Democrats paralleled that drop – 4 million fewer moderates voted for the Democratic candidate in 2012 than in 2008. By contrast, the number of moderates voting for the Republican candidate was down about 600k, following a general downward trend since at least 2004.

So, IMO, when you look at the actual numbers, instead of the percentages, it looks like Democrats don’t have quite the problem with whites as the pundits have been saying they do, and also the GOP doesn’t have quite the problem with a rising electorate of minority voters as the pundits say they do.

Thoughts?
 
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Republicans want the minority vote, they're just paying right now for not knowing how to do it. They'll figure it out for survival reasons.
 
Sorry, my full post didn't seem to go through the first time.
 
There was of course the Storm which makes it difficult to analyze.
Turnout IMO would be fully expected to drop.
It may have even dropped with Latinos if we consider their absolute number has also grown dramatically, perhaps more than their turnout.

Turnout in ie, NY, was down from 59% to 49%; from 2.6 mil to 2.1 mil.
Voter Turnout Was Lower Than in 2008, According to Early Count - NYTimes.com

Similar problems probably hit NJ, CT MD, DE, RI, voters.. especially the Richer White voters who live by the Coast/beach.
(Va Beach, Hamptons, Cape Cod, Greenwich, Newport, etc)
 
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Krhazy said:
I think pundits get too caught up in the percentages of these exit polls and don't pay enough attention to the actual, underlying numbers. The following are approximate, given that they are derived from exit polls, and given that the complete numbers for 2012 may not be fully in yet. But here are the best estimates we have of the precise numbers of different types of people who voted:

Number of total voters in 2012: 128,871,984
Number of total voters in 2008: 129,391,711
Number of total voters in 2004: 121,069,054

Number of white voters in 2012: 92,787,828
Number of white voters in 2008: 95,749,866
Number of white voters in 2004: 93,223,171

Number of latino voters in 2012: 12,939,171
Number of latino voters in 2008: 11,645,253
Number of latino voters in 2004: 9.685,524

Number of black voters in 2012: 16,753,357
Number of black voters in 2008: 16,820,922
Number of black voters in 2004: 13,317,595


As you can see, about three million fewer white voters voted in 2012 than in 2008. This, as opposed to significantly increased numbers of blacks and latinos voting, seems to be what primarily accounted for white voters' decreased share of the vote this year.

So that sounds pretty positive for Republicans, right? Since they won pretty much all categories of the white vote? And the Democrats may have an even bigger problem with whites than was originally thought? Well, at least as to the last part, maybe not…

Number of white voters for Democrats in 2012: 36,187,253
Number of white voters for Democrats in 2008: 41,172,442
Number of white voters for Democrats in 2004: 38,221,500

Number of white voters for Republicans in 2012: 54,744,818
Number of white voters for Republicans in 2008: 52,662,426
Number of white voters for Republicans in 2004: 54,069,439

Number of conservative voters for Republicans in 2012: 36,986,259
Number of conservative voters for Republicans in 2008: 34,314,681
Number of conservative voters for Republicans in 2004: 34,577,321

Number of liberal voters for Democrats in 2012: 27.797,476
Number of liberal voters for Democrats in 2008: 25,334,897
Number of liberal voters for Democrats in 2004: 21,610,826

Number of moderate voters in 2012: 52,837,513
Number of moderate voters in 2008: 56,932,352
Number of moderate voters in 2004: 54,481,074

Number of moderate voters for Democrats in 2012: 29,598,007
Number of moderate voters for Democrats in 2008: 34,159,411
Number of moderate voters for Democrats in 2004: 29,419,780

Number of moderate voters for Republicans in 2012: 21,663,380
Number of moderate voters for Republicans in 2008: 22,203,617
Number of moderate voters for Republicans in 2004: 24,516,483


The number of conservative republican voters and liberal democratic voters were actually the highest either have been in years. Only the number of moderate voters was down -- by a little over 4 million.

The number of moderates voting for Democrats paralleled that drop – 4 million fewer moderates voted for the Democratic candidate in 2012 than in 2008. By contrast, the number of moderates voting for the Republican candidate was down about 600k, following a general downward trend since at least 2004.

So, IMO, when you look at the actual numbers, instead of the percentages, it looks like Democrats don’t have quite the problem with whites as the pundits have been saying they do, and also the GOP doesn’t have quite the problem with a rising electorate of minority voters as the pundits say they do.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Source for your numbers?
 
I think that if we all read as much into these sorts of statistics as some people do, & if we extrapolated them in the way that some people do that in 2016 if the GOP ran a black lesbian (with hispanic partner) on a ticket with a white christian conservative vp, then polar bears would riot.
 
Paul Austin said:
I think that if we all read as much into these sorts of statistics as some people do, & if we extrapolated them in the way that some people do that in 2016 if the GOP ran a black lesbian (with hispanic partner) on a ticket with a white christian conservative vp, then polar bears would riot.
Click to expand...

LOL


With statistics I can blame a rise in unemployment on the rise in alien abductions . . . with just a little bit of fancy graphing - some number snumber magic - and a few convincing paragraphs I would work it up.
 
I would say it would be all predicated on the degree of the lean. Margin of error could be not counting 5 degree leans to the left. Between 10 and 15 degree leans would be considered slightly moderate, 15-25 fairly moderate, 25 to 35 degree lean moderate, and any left lean between 35 to 90 certainly left-leaning. Bet ya' Wolf didn't factor that in, did he?
 
Krhazy said:
They are all derived from the CNN exit polls for 2012, 2008, and 2004.
Click to expand...

But you don't have the stat for 'white left leaning moderates' - you just have states for 'whites' 'moderates' and 'voted democrat'

Just because the numbers dip doesn't mean they connect - maybe more voted left and less people just voted overall? . . . not having the exact stat leaves it up for loose interpretation.
 
Aunt Spiker said:
But you don't have the stat for 'white left leaning moderates' - you just have states for 'whites' 'moderates' and 'voted democrat'

Just because the numbers dip doesn't mean they connect - maybe more voted left and less people just voted overall? . . . not having the exact stat leaves it up for loose interpretation.
Click to expand...
That's true. I'd like to point out that the thread title is a question, not a statement. My intent was to start a discussion, I acknowledge that there is obviously no clear stat on that issue, and I think your alternative theory is possible as well.

But I do think the stats regarding how many moderates voted Republican (less than in recent history), suggests that this may not have been a case of just a lot more people voting right and fewer showing up overall. I think it suggests that there were a significant number of white left-leaners who stayed home. But I'm definitely open to counterarguments.
 
Stuckinred said:
Republicans want the minority vote, they're just paying right now for not knowing how to do it. They'll figure it out for survival reasons.
Click to expand...

A majority of minorities believe it is the governments duty to take care of people while damn well knowing "safety nets" are being abused.

in short - how the hell can one get the minority vote if their philosophy contradicts their own?

This is how elitist democrats buy elections - they agree that the government is their keeper and agree to support them er give them "Obama money."
 
Krhazy said:
That's true. I'd like to point out that the thread title is a question, not a statement. My intent was to start a discussion, I acknowledge that there is obviously no clear stat on that issue, and I think your alternative theory is possible as well.

But I do think the stats regarding how many moderates voted Republican (less than in recent history), suggests that this may not have been a case of just a lot more people voting right and fewer showing up overall. I think it suggests that there were a significant number of white left-leaners who stayed home. But I'm definitely open to counterarguments.
Click to expand...

Well - I have no counter arguments. They didn't poll for it - and so I have nothing to go by.

It is interesting, though - but I doubt the numbers would be significant. It could be that people identifying as moderate have shifted entirely.
 
Aunt Spiker said:
Well - I have no counter arguments. . . . It could be that people identifying as moderate have shifted entirely.
Click to expand...
That's a good one right there, actually.
 
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