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The GOP polling debacle

lpast

lpast

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The far right was so cocky and convinced they could "BUY" this election they ignored all the polls....they even attacked certain pollsters like Gallup for being pressured by the Obama camp to paint a rosier picture...WHO in the end are the Fools ?

All teaparty republicans need to watch this video....its short

https://www.google.com/search?q=you...g.mozilla:en-US:unofficial&client=seamonkey-a

For Republicans, one of the worst parts of the GOP’s 2012 trouncing was that they didn’t see it coming.Top party strategists and officials always knew there was a chance that President Barack Obama would get reelected, or that Republicans wouldn’t gain control of the Senate. But down to the final days of the national campaign, few anticipated the severe setbacks that Republicans experienced on Nov. 6.



The reason: Across the party’s campaigns, committees and super PACs, internal polling gave an overly optimistic read on the electorate. The Romney campaign entered the last week of the election convinced that Colorado, Florida and Virginia were all but won, that the race in Ohio was neck and neck and that the Republican nominee had a legitimate shot in Pennsylvania.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee consistently had a more upbeat assessment of races in North Dakota and Montana, among others, than their Democratic counterparts. One GOP poll even showed Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock holding even with his opponent, even as public polls showed the embattled Republican hemorrhaging support. A Republican poll taken by Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Pennsylvania Senate candidate Tom Smith leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by 2 points a few weeks before the election; Casey won by 9 points.









The GOP polling debacle - Alexander Burns - POLITICO.com
 
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lpast said:
The far right was so cocky and convinced they could "BUY" this election they ignored all the polls....they even attacked certain pollsters like Gallup for being pressured by the Obama camp to paint a rosier picture...WHO in the end are the Fools ?

All teaparty republicans need to watch this video....its short

https://www.google.com/search?q=you...g.mozilla:en-US:unofficial&client=seamonkey-a

For Republicans, one of the worst parts of the GOP’s 2012 trouncing was that they didn’t see it coming.Top party strategists and officials always knew there was a chance that President Barack Obama would get reelected, or that Republicans wouldn’t gain control of the Senate. But down to the final days of the national campaign, few anticipated the severe setbacks that Republicans experienced on Nov. 6.

The reason: Across the party’s campaigns, committees and super PACs, internal polling gave an overly optimistic read on the electorate. The Romney campaign entered the last week of the election convinced that Colorado, Florida and Virginia were all but won, that the race in Ohio was neck and neck and that the Republican nominee had a legitimate shot in Pennsylvania.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee consistently had a more upbeat assessment of races in North Dakota and Montana, among others, than their Democratic counterparts. One GOP poll even showed Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock holding even with his opponent, even as public polls showed the embattled Republican hemorrhaging support. A Republican poll taken by Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Pennsylvania Senate candidate Tom Smith leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by 2 points a few weeks before the election; Casey won by 9 points.

The GOP polling debacle - Alexander Burns - POLITICO.com
Click to expand...

I didn't see it coming either. I thought it was going to be a close race.
 
MaggieD said:
I didn't see it coming either. I thought it was going to be a close race.
Click to expand...


In all fairness to you maggie...SO DID I...I thought the same thing...but you and I are not "PROFESSIONALS" who are supposed to know better...and there lies the republican big fail
 
at the beginning of election season, I called Obama keeping his job, the House staying Republican, and the Senate going over to Republicans ( because of the amount of retiring Democrats)

meh, 2 outta 3 ain't bad :lol:
 
This, more than the GOP's increasingly extreme views and failure to address changing demographics, could be the most damaging thing to Republicans -- it appears that they are actually starting to buy their own propoganda. For some time a gulf has been widening between reality and GOP dogma. I had assumed that this was mostly served up as bait for the party faithful, but perhaps I was mistaken. Maybe the party "elite" are really that clueless. Or perhaps they've just been spinning the truth so long that they finally started snorting their own stash?

Poetic justice.

This reminds me of the "The Matrix" where a whole population has been stovepiped a completely skewed vision of reality. The part of Neo is played by Nate Silver.
 
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The polling thing is the one thing I really don't understand. Recently, someone in Romney's campaign said that they were all genuinely shocked when he lost. I just find that unbelievable given what the polls said before hand. It speaks to the confirmation bias that dominates much of the Republican Party and that will continue to hurt them. That's not to say that many Democrats aren't also dominated by confirmation bias, but fortunately, the truth was in the Democrats favor this time around.
 
The polls were run in a similar fashion to the way they've been done the past 3 presidential elections.

The big difference this year was the Obama team pulled a sneaky trick and ramped up their ground game.
 
MaggieD said:
I didn't see it coming either. I thought it was going to be a close race.
Click to expand...

I thought it was going to be a much closer race but in retrospect you can see the disconnect from the middle and how the harsh stances taken by the right hurt them. An all inclusive party needs to be more flexible in their ability to project inclusion.
 
lpast said:
The far right was so cocky and convinced they could "BUY" this election they ignored all the polls....they even attacked certain pollsters like Gallup for being pressured by the Obama camp to paint a rosier picture...WHO in the end are the Fools ?

All teaparty republicans need to watch this video....its short

For Republicans, one of the worst parts of the GOP’s 2012 trouncing was that they didn’t see it coming.Top party strategists and officials always knew there was a chance that President Barack Obama would get reelected, or that Republicans wouldn’t gain control of the Senate. But down to the final days of the national campaign, few anticipated the severe setbacks that Republicans experienced on Nov. 6.



The reason: Across the party’s campaigns, committees and super PACs, internal polling gave an overly optimistic read on the electorate. The Romney campaign entered the last week of the election convinced that Colorado, Florida and Virginia were all but won, that the race in Ohio was neck and neck and that the Republican nominee had a legitimate shot in Pennsylvania.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee consistently had a more upbeat assessment of races in North Dakota and Montana, among others, than their Democratic counterparts. One GOP poll even showed Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock holding even with his opponent, even as public polls showed the embattled Republican hemorrhaging support. A Republican poll taken by Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Pennsylvania Senate candidate Tom Smith leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by 2 points a few weeks before the election; Casey won by 9 points.
Click to expand...

Personally, I don't pay much attention to the polls at all. I don't know anyone that has ever been contacted for a poll and I myself have never been. I told my wife and some others months ago that Obama was going to win reelection. I could just feel it. I was hoping otherwise, for the sake of the country, but I felt it was inevitable.

I don't know what all the talk about the Republicans trying to "buy" an election is all about though. I thought it was Obama who outspent Romney. As for PACs and SuperPACs, which I totally detest, I would guess they are probably about even in spending, not sure how to verify, if even possible all this.
 
Let us all be clear: it was a close race in terms of the popular vote. It was NOT a close race in terms of the electoral vote. What really became obvious after the dust cleared in the sheer brilliance of Nate Silver and his ability to call close race after close race after close race successfully in state after state after state. The GOP true believers simply cherry picked sources like Rasmussen which everybody had told them all along they were not reliable and skewed.

I look forward to the next election cycle where the right pretends that Silver did not hit a grand slam homerun over the wall each time up and Rasmussen struck out every time.
 
MaggieD said:
I didn't see it coming either. I thought it was going to be a close race.
Click to expand...

me to. to the point i was hoping for romney biden >_>. our political system is a joke anyway, but that would've taken the cake.

haymarket said:
Let us all be clear: it was a close race in terms of the popular vote. It was NOT a close race in terms of the electoral vote. What really became obvious after the dust cleared in the sheer brilliance of Nate Silver and his ability to call close race after close race after close race successfully in state after state after state. The GOP true believers simply cherry picked sources like Rasmussen which everybody had told them all along they were not reliable and skewed.

I look forward to the next election cycle where the right pretends that Silver did not hit a grand slam homerun over the wall each time up and Rasmussen struck out every time.
Click to expand...


let's see if nate is as accurate next few rounds. could've been a fluke.
 
lpast said:
The far right was so cocky and convinced they could "BUY" this election they ignored all the polls....they even attacked certain pollsters like Gallup for being pressured by the Obama camp to paint a rosier picture...WHO in the end are the Fools ?

All teaparty republicans need to watch this video....its short

https://www.google.com/search?q=you...g.mozilla:en-US:unofficial&client=seamonkey-a

For Republicans, one of the worst parts of the GOP’s 2012 trouncing was that they didn’t see it coming.Top party strategists and officials always knew there was a chance that President Barack Obama would get reelected, or that Republicans wouldn’t gain control of the Senate. But down to the final days of the national campaign, few anticipated the severe setbacks that Republicans experienced on Nov. 6.



The reason: Across the party’s campaigns, committees and super PACs, internal polling gave an overly optimistic read on the electorate. The Romney campaign entered the last week of the election convinced that Colorado, Florida and Virginia were all but won, that the race in Ohio was neck and neck and that the Republican nominee had a legitimate shot in Pennsylvania.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee consistently had a more upbeat assessment of races in North Dakota and Montana, among others, than their Democratic counterparts. One GOP poll even showed Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock holding even with his opponent, even as public polls showed the embattled Republican hemorrhaging support. A Republican poll taken by Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Pennsylvania Senate candidate Tom Smith leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by 2 points a few weeks before the election; Casey won by 9 points.









The GOP polling debacle - Alexander Burns - POLITICO.com
Click to expand...

What seemed to happen, and we saw it here, was that any poll that didn't put Romney in the lead, was "horribly biased."

So no wonder they didn't see it coming. They chose not to.
 
lpast said:
The far right was so cocky and convinced they could "BUY" this election they ignored all the polls....they even attacked certain pollsters like Gallup for being pressured by the Obama camp to paint a rosier picture...WHO in the end are the Fools ?

All teaparty republicans need to watch this video....its short

https://www.google.com/search?q=you...g.mozilla:en-US:unofficial&client=seamonkey-a

For Republicans, one of the worst parts of the GOP’s 2012 trouncing was that they didn’t see it coming.Top party strategists and officials always knew there was a chance that President Barack Obama would get reelected, or that Republicans wouldn’t gain control of the Senate. But down to the final days of the national campaign, few anticipated the severe setbacks that Republicans experienced on Nov. 6.



The reason: Across the party’s campaigns, committees and super PACs, internal polling gave an overly optimistic read on the electorate. The Romney campaign entered the last week of the election convinced that Colorado, Florida and Virginia were all but won, that the race in Ohio was neck and neck and that the Republican nominee had a legitimate shot in Pennsylvania.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee consistently had a more upbeat assessment of races in North Dakota and Montana, among others, than their Democratic counterparts. One GOP poll even showed Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock holding even with his opponent, even as public polls showed the embattled Republican hemorrhaging support. A Republican poll taken by Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Pennsylvania Senate candidate Tom Smith leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by 2 points a few weeks before the election; Casey won by 9 points.









The GOP polling debacle - Alexander Burns - POLITICO.com
Click to expand...

They believed what they wanted to believe, and anything that contradicted that belief, was obviously wrong or some gigantic liberal conspiracy. When the only information you believe is from Fox News or Rasmussen or your own people, you're destined for disappointment.
 
Thrilla said:
individual vote wise, it was a close race.... electoral vote wise, not close at all.
Click to expand...

No, actually it wasn't. The final margin of victory is in excess of 3 million votes and the percentage is around 3%. Bush v. Gore was a close vote - which in fact Gore won. This one wasn't really that close in the end.
 
rocket88 said:
What seemed to happen, and we saw it here, was that any poll that didn't put Romney in the lead, was "horribly biased."

So no wonder they didn't see it coming. They chose not to.
Click to expand...

"Oversampling Democrats" was the buzzword they used. As if to suggest that a poll ought to consist of asking 50 Obama voters and 50 Romney voters who they were going to vote for, and then arguing over how many of those 100 people were the "undecided voters". At no point did the Republican propaganda machine ever allow for the possibility that Democrat ideas are actually more popular and that there are more left leaning Americans than right leaning ones.

The biggest proof, I see, is in all of the state ballot initiatives that came down firmly on the left side. Three states voting to protect SSM, pot legalization, moves to protect abortion rights, and even a preemptive 75% vote in Colorado to support a federal constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United. Literally every ballot initiative concerning SSM on Tuesday came down on the side of marriage equality. America is starting to reject the conservative movement and all the harm it causes. That the Republican party refuses to see this and refuses to change with the times will only hurt it. So, don't change at all, Republicans! :mrgreen:
 
Wiggen said:
No, actually it wasn't. The final margin of victory is in excess of 3 million votes and the percentage is around 3%. Bush v. Gore was a close vote - which in fact Gore won. This one wasn't really that close in the end.
Click to expand...

Just for reference:

George W. Bush Republican Texas 62,040,610 50.74%
John F. Kerry Democratic Massachusetts 59,028,444 48.27%
 
winston53660 said:
Just for reference:

George W. Bush Republican Texas 62,040,610 50.74%
John F. Kerry Democratic Massachusetts 59,028,444 48.27%
Click to expand...

And let's not forget:

Bush: 50,456,002
Gore: 50,999,897

Still want to get rid of the Electoral College, rehubs?
 
Wiggen said:
No, actually it wasn't. The final margin of victory is in excess of 3 million votes and the percentage is around 3%. Bush v. Gore was a close vote - which in fact Gore won. This one wasn't really that close in the end.
Click to expand...

the popular vote victory margin in 2012 was 2.7%

only 11 Presidential elections have been closer in our entire history of recoding the popular vote ( from 1824 until now)

feel free to continue believing it wasn't a close race....
 
johnny_rebson said:
The polls were run in a similar fashion to the way they've been done the past 3 presidential elections.

The big difference this year was the Obama team pulled a sneaky trick and ramped up their ground game.
Click to expand...


yeah those rotten dirty dogs...getting their voters motivated instead of just throwing hundreds of millions around...How awful of them...loolololol
 
rocket88 said:
What seemed to happen, and we saw it here, was that any poll that didn't put Romney in the lead, was "horribly biased."

So no wonder they didn't see it coming. They chose not to.
Click to expand...


Yup they just didnt get it...all the pollsters were in obama pocket...Oh well we know the real deal now dont we
 
ThePlayDrive said:
The polling thing is the one thing I really don't understand. Recently, someone in Romney's campaign said that they were all genuinely shocked when he lost. I just find that unbelievable given what the polls said before hand. It speaks to the confirmation bias that dominates much of the Republican Party and that will continue to hurt them. That's not to say that many Democrats aren't also dominated by confirmation bias, but fortunately, the truth was in the Democrats favor this time around.
Click to expand...

I posted this before. According to a republican congressman Romney and Ryan and all of his chief people were buying into what Fox and the "scewed" pollster people were saying. they were absolutely convinced of victory. Romney had not intention of writing a concession speech because he believed loosing was not a consideration. From what this guy said after it became clear he was going to loose everybody in the room looked like they had witnessed an mulitple axe murder right in front of them

This level of arrogance and niavete was the main failing of the GOP in this race. The convinced themselves of thier own rightousness and were hand fed by such organs as Fox. It was a house of soggy cards and no body in the GOP brain trust saw it.
 
Wiggen said:
No, actually it wasn't. The final margin of victory is in excess of 3 million votes and the percentage is around 3%. Bush v. Gore was a close vote - which in fact Gore won. This one wasn't really that close in the end.
Click to expand...

Lets not forget the republican govs suppressing the votes to help romney....florida had over 6 hr waits...do you think the elderly or people with any type of ailment or injury could handle that ? there were alot of voters didnt get to vote in fla...I hope it helps rick scott get his ass kicked out of the statehouse next election
 
Thrilla said:
the popular vote victory margin in 2012 was 2.7%

only 11 Presidential elections have been closer in our entire history of recoding the popular vote ( from 1824 until now)

feel free to continue believing it wasn't a close race....
Click to expand...

OK. It was the 12th closest Presidential election since 1824.
 
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