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The GOP polling debacle

Henrin said:
I never understood the problem with this. For one, if you are looking for someone that is breaking the law you are going to be looking for those that fit the description. Since more times than not in the deep south it will be an Hispanics that is here illegally it is only logical to target Hispanics more than anyone else. As for the second part, I have no idea what that has to do with my point of immigration. If everyone wants to get bitchy about being called welfare supporters that are looking for a handout when in fact they are either in support of it or on welfare not wanting that to go away than they need to grow up.



I think it more comes down to the fact that Hispanics accept liberal policy and not republican policy.
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Instead of hipsanics lets assume the illegal immigrants were caucasian canadians. I am certain that if white americans were being pulled over on a constant basis by the police checking for papers, they would be very very upset with the policy of targetting white americans in the process to control illegal immigration.

I am very certain the first time I would be pulled over by the police for a "papers" check, the party that put such a law in place would not get my vote.
 
Thrilla said:
it's amazing how powerful Republicans are.. i mean, they can even cause long lines at polling places... they are craaaaazy powerful.
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Well, not your average Republican. But Republican Governors in Ohio, Florida, and elsewhere tried their damndest to repress voter turnout. In the end their efforts were counter-productive.
 
tererun said:
There are many reasons the polls confused things. The biggest reason the republicans were caught offguard is they cherry picked polls they wanted to believe and disregarded the true nature of polling.

That leads to the second problem. modern polling organizations seem to be trying to be more accurate by altering tried and true polling processes. First thing about a poll is it should select a random sample. That means that it cannot start fooling around by taking likely voters, or by trying to get results from their own ideas of what percentages of society is. those both introduce human bias and error into polls. A truly random poll with full response should most likely fall within society's demographic without adjustment. The ways to make polls more accurate are larger sample sets, and by getting responses from all the random choices.

One of the biggest fails that any person who has studied statistics sees in modern polls is methopd and lack of response. If you poll through the internet you only get response from people who use the internet. if you poll through the phone you only get response from people you can reach. If you only get 30 percent of people willing to respond your poll ignores a huge group of people who don't respond and they may have a prevailing attitude your poll completely neglects. What is the preference of the massive number of people who never respond to polls? It could be said that vocal republicans are much more likely to spoyut their opinions at a pollster than a subdued democrat. If i had to guess the tea party is probably very likely to respond while your standard voter who is not passionately political probably just dismisses polls.

Modern polling places are not scientific at all. They claim to be scientific so they can sell their polls, but nothing they do would stand up in a true scientific study. There is a science to using a small sample set to represent a larger whiole that would be too tedious or impossible to collect data on. No, that actual science does not fit into the quick paced world of political races. It involves standards, repetition, and time to correlate lots of data from multiple "polls." Polling can attempt to be as accurate as possible using certain things, but it will never be scientific proof. It can indicate areas of importance, but it is not an election that counts all voters.

Even the margin of error is based on a scientific principle regarding correlation, but that means the polls have to be conducted with the randomized accuracy and have a full set of responses which none of them have. Even scientific polls try to have the sample set be standardized. you cannot have a standard sample set based on opinions of a group that can have it's opionions changed by daily events. In other words pre-sandy polls become irrelevant because they measured a group whos opinions were not effected by sandy. You would need a number of polls conducted properly to get a correlated picture of the snapshot of american opinion. Once time progresses and opinions change then the pre-polling data becomes irrelevant in a snapshot of the present.

This is why polling fails, and this is why when you base your ideas on polls you are going to fail. The republicans based their confidence on polls when they should have used the polls to find weaknesses and not relied on the polls indicating a win for them.
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Except, of course, most of the polls didn't fail. Most of them were incredibly accurate.
 
Bronson said:
I don't think people realized how far gone the country and the culture is

When you win an election based on Big Bird, Binders, War on Women, Romney is Satan the problem is a lot deeper than politics
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Yes, blaming your loss on the stupidity of the voters is excuse #5 in the Republican list of excuses. Ahead of Hurricane Sandy and Chris Christie, but well behind the always popular 'voter fraud'.

Don't ever change, guys!
 
Vallista said:
Lets get on thing straight here. McCain was soldier that got caught! That doesn't make him a hero in my book.
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Get a new book. I'm as liberal as anybody here on domestic policy, but you are simply incorrect here. I suppose if you have general contempt for the military, your attitude is understandable. I don't.
 
Well here is what I don't get. It astounds me that this candidate(Romney), given the current economic climate, and record of this incumbent could actually receive over 2 million less votes than McCain got last election. Most polls reflected a very high motivation for Republicans to vote than in the last election. It appears to me that we have lost control of the voting process and it may be much more corrupt than we can imagine. 2 million votes less, astounding.
 
Yes, undoubtedly voter fraud is the answer. It explains why Obama received 8 million votes less than in 2008. It's those damned Republican governors and their voter suppression tactics!

But there's no doubt that things will go much better for Republicans once they 'gain control' of the voting process.
 
excelir54 said:
Well here is what I don't get. It astounds me that this candidate(Romney), given the current economic climate, and record of this incumbent could actually receive over 2 million less votes than McCain got last election. Most polls reflected a very high motivation for Republicans to vote than in the last election. It appears to me that we have lost control of the voting process and it may be much more corrupt than we can imagine. 2 million votes less, astounding.
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But did he actually receive fewer votes? I was troubled by claims that he did because in the last election millions of votes were added to both sides' tallies in the month after the election.

Note: I just checked and as of right now he only has 300, 000 fewer votes than McCain. The numbers keep changing so be patient.
 
Wiggen said:
But there's no doubt that things will go much better for Republicans once they 'gain control' of the voting process.
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You libs can laugh if it makes you feel better. You made me think of an old saying:

If at first you don't succeed, try try again.
 
Wiggen said:
Get a new book. I'm as liberal as anybody here on domestic policy, but you are simply incorrect here. I suppose if you have general contempt for the military, your attitude is understandable. I don't.
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He is not a hero, he disobey orders and got caught. That doesn't make him a hero.
 
Vallista said:
He is not a hero, he disobey orders and got caught. That doesn't make him a hero.
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What order did he disobey? Don't get shot down?

You're embarrasing yourself here.
 
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