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The Bradley Effect

apdst

apdst

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This is interesting and makes a ton of sense. I'd never heard of this, before Ann Coulter mentioning it on Hannity, just now.

This could be the reason that Obama looks so good in the polls. If so, there are going to be some foaming at the mouth mo-fo's this time tomorrow night.

Bradley effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
You don't remember this same bogus argument from the last election?
 
AdamT said:
You don't remember this same bogus argument from the last election?
Click to expand...

No, I don't. This is the first time I heard of this.

Ann Coulter made a billiant point, as usual: All we've heard for the past four years, is that anyone who votes against Obama is a racist. Anyone that disagrees with Obama is a racist. With the existance of that stigma, of course people may not be honest about who they're voting for.
 
I think Ari Fleisher has the most interesting take on it--if you compare to 2008 in OH, Romney is way up in early voting than McCain and Obama is down from then so the 2008 models do not really apply here because the early voting gap was reflected in the final gap in 2008. Gingrich has also pointed out that democratic votes are imputed to have gone to Obama in OH polls but a lot of the downstate democrats are very conservative who did not support Obama in 2008.

It is going to be a photo-finish, but I stand by my RCP map that has Romney edging out Obama.
 
apdst said:
No, I don't. This is the first time I heard of this.

Ann Coulter made a billiant point, as usual: All we've heard for the past four years, is that anyone who votes against Obama is a racist. Anyone that disagrees with Obama is a racist. With the existance of that stigma, of course people may not be honest about who they're voting for.
Click to expand...

It was a big topic of conversation in '08. At the end of the day there was no evidence that the Bradley Effect influenced the polls, and I would imagine that, even if it had, it would be far less prevalent this time around.

Grasping at straws....
 
AdamT said:
It was a big topic of conversation in '08. At the end of the day there was no evidence that the Bradley Effect influenced the polls, and I would imagine that, even if it had, it would be far less prevalent this time around.

Grasping at straws....
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly, it was flipped with who was talking about that effect. I think it was Democrats and the media that were cynically worried about this, and used it to charge white voters with closeted racism. Republicans wouldn't want to embrace that theory in 2008, lest they look racist. I'm supposing because Republicans are trying so desperately to denounce polling data, strange folks like Coulter start to embrace something that doesn't bode well for them.
 
Fiddytree said:
If I remember correctly, it was flipped with who was talking about that effect. I think it was Democrats and the media that were cynically worried about this, and used it to charge white voters with closeted racism. Republicans wouldn't want to embrace that theory in 2008, lest they look racist. I'm supposing because Republicans are trying so desperately to denounce polling data, strange folks like Coulter start to embrace something that doesn't bode well for them.
Click to expand...

I recall having many arguments with conservatives who were asserting it just as apdst is now; Obama was up in the polls but McCain was going to win because people were afraid to tell pollsters that they weren't going to vote for the black guy.
 
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