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Election Day Weather

Kandahar

Kandahar

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As many of you know, studies have established that the weather on Election Day can have a real impact on the outcome of the elections. Specifically, bad weather reduces turnout...and low turnout favors Republicans. That's why you may have heard the adage that Republicans pray for rain on Election Day, and Democrats pray for clear skies. There is a lot of truth to that. Studies indicate that the Republican share of the vote is about 1% higher than expected in areas that have bad weather on Election Day. It's important not to overemphasize this factor since it usually won't change the outcome, but if the election is very close it can make a difference. For example, if Florida had had good weather in 2000, then Al Gore probably would have won the state (and therefore the election). Of course, it's not quite as simple as that. Many states have certain regions that are heavily Democratic or heavily Republican, so in some cases rain can actually work to the Democrats' advantage (if it depresses voter turnout in Republican areas but not Democratic areas).

With that said, it looks like a few swing states are going to get some rain tomorrow. The weather forecast calls for rain in Northern/Central Florida, Eastern Iowa, and most of Wisconsin. IMO this could have the biggest impact in Iowa, because Eastern Iowa is the Democratic part of the state. I think Obama is ahead by enough in Iowa that he'll win anyway, but the state could turn out to be closer than the polls indicate. In Florida, the bad weather in the northern/central part of the state could work to Obama's advantage, because that part of the state tends to be more Republican than southern Florida. In Wisconsin, I don't think it will have much of an impact. It seems that the rain will affect most of the state equally, and although the reduced turnout should be an advantage to the Republicans, I don't think Wisconsin will be close enough to matter.

In any case, I don't expect the weather to change the outcome of the election. It's just interesting food for thought. :)
 

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Kandahar said:
As many of you know, studies have established that the weather on Election Day can have a real impact on the outcome of the elections. Specifically, bad weather reduces turnout...and low turnout favors Republicans. That's why you may have heard the adage that Republicans pray for rain on Election Day, and Democrats pray for clear skies. There is a lot of truth to that. Studies indicate that the Republican share of the vote is about 1% higher than expected in areas that have bad weather on Election Day. It's important not to overemphasize this factor since it usually won't change the outcome, but if the election is very close it can make a difference. For example, if Florida had had good weather in 2000, then Al Gore probably would have won the state (and therefore the election). Of course, it's not quite as simple as that. Many states have certain regions that are heavily Democratic or heavily Republican, so in some cases rain can actually work to the Democrats' advantage (if it depresses voter turnout in Republican areas but not Democratic areas).

With that said, it looks like a few swing states are going to get some rain tomorrow. The weather forecast calls for rain in Northern/Central Florida, Eastern Iowa, and most of Wisconsin. IMO this could have the biggest impact in Iowa, because Eastern Iowa is the Democratic part of the state. I think Obama is ahead by enough in Iowa that he'll win anyway, but the state could turn out to be closer than the polls indicate. In Florida, the bad weather in the northern/central part of the state could work to Obama's advantage, because that part of the state tends to be more Republican than southern Florida. In Wisconsin, I don't think it will have much of an impact. It seems that the rain will affect most of the state equally, and although the reduced turnout should be an advantage to the Republicans, I don't think Wisconsin will be close enough to matter.

In any case, I don't expect the weather to change the outcome of the election. It's just interesting food for thought. :)
Click to expand...

North Dakotans go to the polls, but only if the car starts up.

We should be fine ;)
 
This effect seems like one of the many reasons why we ought to have a voting period longer than a single day.
 
Both of those big green blobs will be over the northeast on Wednesday along with freezing weather which makes me wonder how many people might say screw the election, we gotta prepare in those Sandy damaged areas. The worst thing that could happen IMO would be for it to be too close to call and big parts of NJ would get their extra day knowing that they would be the ones deciding the winner. It would cripple the already limping winner no matter who it is IMHO.
 
We Voted last Friday_ at one of the Libraries, do you Not have early voting where You live? Don't know the percentage but alot of folks vote early by mail or at an early poll to avoid the last min rush' . Early voting here ran for amost a week'
 
This is true, and early voting may be one thing that blunts the impact of the weather forecast on the outcome of the election. Many Iowans has already voted, so it is possible that the rain that's coming to the eastern part of the state tomorrow will not make as big of a difference as it might have in past years.
 
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