What is the Loss Narrative?

In 2004, I remember being astonished at how quickly Democrats turned on John Kerry, declaring him to have been a deeply flawed candidate, etc. and so forth. In 2008, Republicans shrugged their shoulders and said whatchagonnado with an economy in free fall, a war-weary nation, and a political naif who is incredibly good at allowing others to project their hopes onto him, but no record to discount his abilities.


So put yourself in Nov 7 - what is the loss narrative for either side? What do Democrats blame? Republicans?

Partisans: Cheaters!!11!!
Me: hahaha

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cpwill said:

What do Democrats blame? Republicans?

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Voter Fraud.

Here's my narrative (and mine alone):

1. If Obama wins, it is because Romney was not forceful enough in describing his vision and focusing on the results beget through his work with MA and the Olympics. It is also because a significant number of "independent" voters bought into the Obama message when they shouldn't have (IMO, of course).

2. If Romney wins, it is because he succeeded in convincing others of his intentions, and independents saw through Obama's record deflections.

I see no justification for screaming fraud, delusion, or conspiracy. The candidate that people most believe in is going to be elected. I think a good portion of the population is wrong in their assessment, but there's really nothing I can do about that.

When Obama wins Republicans will do what they always do: call Romney a RINO and throw him under the bus.

tessaesque said:

I see no justification for screaming fraud, delusion, or conspiracy.

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Oh, come on, it's funny. Some people must do it or we lose all that comic value.

24107 said:

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You can't see a difference between repubs and dems (and you use a 'bipartisan event' photo-op as evidence), but you can somehow "see" that 911 was an inside job? That baffles me.

If Romney loses: Media bias, "47%," Hurricane Sandy and Chris Christie's endorsement of Obama.

If Obama loses: Racism, rich people bought the election and Romney is a skilled liar.

AdamT said:

When Obama wins Republicans will do what they always do: call Romney a RINO and throw him under the bus.

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What will you say if Obama LOSES?

AdamT said:

When Obama wins Republicans will do what they always do: call Romney a RINO and throw him under the bus.

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Probably, as Democrats did that with Kerry, and Republicans love their "true conservative" (wherever that person may be). Yet you can't forget the temptation to call the election rigged or unfair in some form or other. I'm expecting some of that around here and elsewhere, no matter who wins or loses.

cpwill said:

In 2004, I remember being astonished at how quickly Democrats turned on John Kerry, declaring him to have been a deeply flawed candidate, etc. and so forth. In 2008, Republicans shrugged their shoulders and said whatchagonnado with an economy in free fall, a war-weary nation, and a political naif who is incredibly good at allowing others to project their hopes onto him, but no record to discount his abilities.

So put yourself in Nov 7 - what is the loss narrative for either side? What do Democrats blame? Republicans?

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If Democrats lose, I imagine we're going to hear that Republicans stole the election. Or that Americans are more racist than they'd ever even imagined. Or that it's Bush's fault. Or that the electorate is stupid.

If Republicans lose, I imagine we're going to hear that Democrats stole the election. Or that it's the fault of the liberal press. Or that it's Bush's fault. Or that the electorate is stupid.

What they should be thinking is this:

Democrats: People are tired of throwing trillions of dollars at problems. We're tired of the War on Women, Class Warfare, blaming rich people, and presidential candidates that promise us transparency and change, delivering neither.

Republicans: The electorate doesn't believe us anymore. We're tired of platitudes, where's the beef? We're substantially no different than Democrats. We've got to work on our image. The devil you know is always safer than the devil you don't.

Some are predicting another 2000.

American said:

Some are predicting another 2000.

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Think 2004.

cpwill said:

So put yourself in Nov 7 - what is the loss narrative for either side? What do Democrats blame? Republicans?

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If Democrats lose, I think the loss narrative will be that a failure of leadership/communication from Obama, slow economic recovery, and Republic obstructionism/distortion cost them the election.

If Republicans lose, I hope the narrative will be that congressional conservatives were too extreme in their proposed solutions. I fear the narrative will be that Romney was not believably conservative enough (meaning they will double-down on the same strategy moving forward).

If the President fails in his re-election bid the left will scream voter supression and racism, then file hundreds of law suites.

If he succeeds the right will either (as some have suggested) throw Romney under the bus or scream voter fraud, then file hundreds of law suites.

cpwill said:

In 2004, I remember being astonished at how quickly Democrats turned on John Kerry, declaring him to have been a deeply flawed candidate, etc. and so forth. In 2008, Republicans shrugged their shoulders and said whatchagonnado with an economy in free fall, a war-weary nation, and a political naif who is incredibly good at allowing others to project their hopes onto him, but no record to discount his abilities.


So put yourself in Nov 7 - what is the loss narrative for either side? What do Democrats blame? Republicans?

Click to expand...

This is a great topic!

If Romney loses, the narrative will be basically the same as it was for Kerry. The Republicans nominated a flawed candidate who no one - neither the base nor the swing voters - really liked. It will be another data point in the narrative that "you can't beat somebody with nobody," even if you dislike that somebody. There will also be a lot of infighting in the party (to a much greater extent than there was after McCain's defeat). Moderates will point toward the defeats of unelectable candidates in perfectly winnable states in 2010 (NV, DE, CO) and 2012 (very likely in MO and IN), and argue that the GOP needs to pivot back to the center and start nominating electable candidates if it wants to continue to be a national party. On the other side, the conservative base will push back and argue that the problem is that the party has not been sufficiently conservative. They will point toward Romney's wishy-washy policy positions and McCain's "maverick" streak.

If Obama loses, I think the Democratic Party is much more likely than the Republicans to externalize the loss, because it would be wholly unexpected. I think most Democrats are very confident in a victory tomorrow, and so there would be a feeling of shock and disbelief if Obama loses. It's very likely that we'd be hearing a lot about the problems in the state elections...Ohio and Florida are already having problems, and at least in Ohio there seems to be some last-minute partisan gamesmanship on the Republican Secretary of State's part. An Obama loss would inevitably result in very bitter feelings that the electoral system is rigged against the Democrats, and that Democrats will not have a fair chance as long as the GOP controls the electoral apparatus of the states. The same goes for losses in the Senate...I think Democrats are not expecting them, and so there would be much less willingness to do any introspection than if the polls had been predicting a Democratic wipeout in the Senate all along. They would likely be attributed to idiosyncrasies in the individual states, or blamed on just having weak candidates.

The unfortunate thing is that conservatives will conclude that Romney lost because he wasn't conservative enough, which is the opposite of the truth. The main reason Romney will lose is that was forced to swing so far to the right to the win the primary that he couldn't tack back to the center without making him look like an even bigger flip flopper than he already did.

Republicans: Already blaming Hurricane Sandy for stopping their momentum.

Democrats: Republican voter suppression in Ohio and Florida.

In both cases they have a case.

AdamT said:

When Obama wins Republicans will do what they always do: call Romney a RINO and throw him under the bus.

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Romney will lose because of black racism, the media, and the hurricane.

Obama will lose because of Citizens United and hate from the Religious Right.

Kandahar said:

This is a great topic!

If Romney loses, the narrative will be basically the same as it was for Kerry. The Republicans nominated a flawed candidate who no one - neither the base nor the swing voters - really liked. It will be another data point in the narrative that "you can't beat somebody with nobody," even if you dislike that somebody. There will also be a lot of infighting in the party (to a much greater extent than there was after McCain's defeat). Moderates will point toward the defeats of unelectable candidates in perfectly winnable states in 2010 (NV, DE, CO) and 2012 (very likely in MO and IN), and argue that the GOP needs to pivot back to the center and start nominating electable candidates if it wants to continue to be a national party. On the other side, the conservative base will push back and argue that the problem is that the party has not been sufficiently conservative. They will point toward Romney's wishy-washy policy positions and McCain's "maverick" streak.

If Obama loses, I think the Democratic Party is much more likely than the Republicans to externalize the loss, because it would be wholly unexpected. I think most Democrats are very confident in a victory tomorrow, and so there would be a feeling of shock and disbelief if Obama loses. It's very likely that we'd be hearing a lot about the problems in the state elections...Ohio and Florida are already having problems, and at least in Ohio there seems to be some last-minute partisan gamesmanship on the Republican Secretary of State's part. An Obama loss would inevitably result in very bitter feelings that the electoral system is rigged against the Democrats, and that Democrats will not have a fair chance as long as the GOP controls the electoral apparatus of the states. The same goes for losses in the Senate...I think Democrats are not expecting them, and so there would be much less willingness to do any introspection than if the polls had been predicting a Democratic wipeout in the Senate all along. They would likely be attributed to idiosyncrasies in the individual states, or blamed on just having weak candidates.

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I think this is fantastic analysis. I will admit, the iron-clad surety expressed by so many Democrats in what seems by all objective measures an exceedingly close race is surprising. There appears to be the belief that Obama has to be elected because well he simply does. I've wondered if this is connected to the "progressive" belief that they are some kind of inevitable historical ideological evolutionary destination/endpoint, or if The One's famous self-love is simply contagious.

PeteEU said:

Republicans: Already blaming Hurricane Sandy for stopping their momentum.

Democrats: Republican voter suppression in Ohio and Florida.

In both cases they have a case.

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Well, Republicans have a case about the hurricane stopping Romney's momentum, but that's really not enough because even their base won't buy "Obama controls the weather."

Romney: I don't believe a loss narrative will be necessary.

Obama: He inherited it...

rocket88 said:

Well, Republicans have a case about the hurricane stopping Romney's momentum, but that's really not enough because even their base won't buy "Obama controls the weather."

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Oh I have no doubt that an internal civil war break out again in the GOP, blaming Romney for not being conservative enough, not sticking to positions, being a mormon and so on.. but the first narrative, which they already are using, is that Sandy put a hard stop to their perceived momentum and that is valid. Had the election been in a week or two, then Romney would have a much better chance in theory... but that would also have a drawback in the Senate elections where the GOP is having a harder and harder time the longer the election cycle is going.. mostly due to massive gaffes by their candidates.

Saying that the Democrats have not won yet, people still have to vote, so everything is up for grabs, which is why the Democrats are already floating the idea, some valid, some not, that the GOP run election boards in areas of Florida and Ohio are trying to stop people from voting. If they do loose, then this will be the main line of attack and they would in some cases have a very good case. Basically the US election system is a freaking mess in many areas and that needs fixing.. but I aint holding my breath on that... as it favors the GOP as it stands now.

Mine: I mostly agree with (read: plagiarized) Kandahar.



Republicans, I think, will see a deepened civil war between the Conservatives and the Moderates. Romney will be blamed (similar to how Democrats turned on Kerry) as an awkward, flawed candidate whom few were excited about except as an alternative to the guy in place. Conservatives will draw a straight line from the Reagan / Bush II victories through the H.W / McCain / Romney losses and claim that those who strongly embody conservative concepts (I know, that claim is questionable about W, but in 2004 few doubted his credentials) succeed by making the case for conservatism, while those who do not fail by painting in pastels and representing a weaker Democrat vision. This fight would be brutal in the short term, and make the party better in the long term; forcing Republicans to continue to be the Party of Ideas through sheer bloody competition. Republicans would be well-situated to repeat the Democrat trick of 2006/2008 wherein they expand their congressional holdings in 2014 and then pick up the Presidency in a second wave-election in 2016. This only works, however, if the 2016 candidate is acceptable to Conservatives as one of their own - a "hold your nose and vote" argument is unlikely to work for what they will see as the third time in a row. If the party nomination in 2016 is a McCain/Romney type, look for lots of Conservatives to either sit out the race, or vote third party. Whether those numbers would be enough to counteract the exhaustion with the Obama administration on the part of the public is a matter I would say is too up in the air at this point.

Democrats are generally much more confident in their victory than the situation seems to warrant. They will therefore blame insidious outside forces for their loss. Instead of turning to infighting, Democrats will blame a combination of 1. George Bush, 2. Election fraud, and 3. Citizens United. Despite the money advantage enjoyed through much of this race by their party (and its' affiliates), they will draw for their more simplistic voters a simple narrative of "Romney is rich, therefore he bought the election, and where he couldn't buy votes, he bought the vote-counters." They will be MUCH more acrimonious in their response to a Republican administration in this instance than Republicans will be towards a second Obama administration, as they will be have developed a narrative that President Romney is illegitimate. Much of the Bush-hyperbole that we saw began with the same impression, so expect to see rabid assaults on the Romney administration as soon as he begins to make good on any basic campaign promises. Absent a second recession, Democrats will be less suited to dramatically expand their Congressional seats in 2014 than the Republicans would, and it is not inconceivable that there will be a push for Obama to run again in 2016, perhaps leading to the fun (for conservatives) show of another Obama-Hillary face-off . In such a case, look for Hillary to win (the 'stolen election' narrative will have lost some of it's pull for Democrats by that point, being superseded by anger at the particulars of the evil Romney administration); Obama made himself few strong allies in the Party over the last four years, and Hillary will be able to speak with authority on his administration, having served in it.