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Tied 47-47 in Pennsylvania

cpwill

cpwill

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...Which is going to tempt the Romney campaign to spend money there. Unless the Obama campaign's anti-coal measures really are bringing home large portions of that state, and softening others, I would say, this is like Lucy with the Football. Not gonna happen, Republicans.

Still, it's nice to force Obama to spend resources defending his home turf.

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising....

...The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.
Click to expand...
 
Every four years, the Republicans spend the last week of the campaign claiming they're going to win Pennsylvania (I guess to project confidence). And every four years, they come up short. I see no reason to expect this year to be any different.
 
Seems this particular polling outfit has a rather huge Republican house effect.

Per the omnicommentator, Nate Silver:

"The polling firm has had a very strong Republican lean this cycle — about five percentage points relative to the consensus, a much larger lean than firms like Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling that are often criticized for having partisan results. Susquehanna is the only pollster to have shown Mr. Romney ahead in Pennsylvania at any point in the race, as they did on one occasion in February and another in October (Mr. Romney led by four points in their previous poll of the state). Perhaps they will be proven right, but it is usually a bad bet to bank on the one poll rather than the many."

Nov. 3: Romney's Reason to Play for Pennsylvania - NYTimes.com[]

Silver gives Obama a 97.3% chance of winning PA.
 
Although not likely, I could see Romney winning PA, and I would not be surprised if he does so.
 
I think at this point it may be more beneficial to emphasize voter turnout for the Romney side if he wants to win PA and the other swing states. Either candidate may be up or down by 1-5%, but if you have more of your base fired up to vote and actually voting then that can swing things in a candidate's favor even if they are down by a few points.
 
cpwill said:
...Which is going to tempt the Romney campaign to spend money there. Unless the Obama campaign's anti-coal measures really are bringing home large portions of that state, and softening others, I would say, this is like Lucy with the Football. Not gonna happen, Republicans.

Still, it's nice to force Obama to spend resources defending his home turf.
Click to expand...

Pennsylvania has always been "Fool's Gold" for the GOP. I see alot of wasted effort but with Ohio in the bag for Obama what else can they do?
 
cpwill said:
...Which is going to tempt the Romney campaign to spend money there. Unless the Obama campaign's anti-coal measures really are bringing home large portions of that state, and softening others, I would say, this is like Lucy with the Football. Not gonna happen, Republicans.

Still, it's nice to force Obama to spend resources defending his home turf.
Click to expand...

Last time Susquehanna polled, they had Romney up four. I'd be more excited if someone else showed it close.
 
Kandahar said:
Every four years, the Republicans spend the last week of the campaign claiming they're going to win Pennsylvania (I guess to project confidence). And every four years, they come up short. I see no reason to expect this year to be any different.
Click to expand...

But this time might be different. This time, Lucy may actually let Charlie Brown kick that football.

Has it occurred to anyone else that "spending resources" and "concentrating campaign money" really means a bigger, wetter, smellier BS storm via political ads on TV? Why do those work anyway? Is the public really so gullible as to place any weight on them at all?
 
iguanaman said:
Pennsylvania has always been "Fool's Gold" for the GOP. I see alot of wasted effort but with Ohio in the bag for Obama what else can they do?
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Ohio isn't "in the bag" for either candidate, unless one of them has a massive voter fraud scheme running under the radar that we don't know about. Though I agree Pa is probably unlikely.

Dittohead Not! said:
Has it occurred to anyone else that "spending resources" and "concentrating campaign money" really means a bigger, wetter, smellier BS storm via political ads on TV? Why do those work anyway? Is the public really so gullible as to place any weight on them at all?
Click to expand...

um..... duh? :)
 
R2 put $6 million into PA last week.

R2 is 'running thru the tape' to victory.
 
Kandahar said:
Every four years, the Republicans spend the last week of the campaign claiming they're going to win Pennsylvania (I guess to project confidence). And every four years, they come up short. I see no reason to expect this year to be any different.
Click to expand...

How many of those other times have they been hit by a Hurricane a week before the election?
 
Fisher said:
How many of those other times have they been hit by a Hurricane a week before the election?
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Pennsylvania is not on the coast; New Jersey and NYC bore the brunt of it. Pennsylvania just had some minor power outages...nothing that should seriously impede the election.
 
I would be VERY shocked to see Romney end up winning.
 
Fisher said:
How many of those other times have they been hit by a Hurricane a week before the election?
Click to expand...

Sandy showed people just how competant a President can be. Quite a contrast from the last huge disaster and President.

The WSJ/NBC poll finds voters praising Obama’s handling of the natural disaster, with nearly 7 in 10 voters approving of his performance, with 15 percent disapproving. The poll found Obama’s approval was highest in the Northeast which faced the brunt of the storm’s fury with 75 percent approval
Click to expand...

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney 48 to 47 - The Hill's Ballot Box
 
Kandahar said:
Pennsylvania is not on the coast; New Jersey and NYC bore the brunt of it. Pennsylvania just had some minor power outages...nothing that should seriously impede the election.
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It would be interesting to hear that Penn had "minor power outages" when there are still about 100,000 without power in Cleveland.
 
Kandahar said:
Every four years, the Republicans spend the last week of the campaign claiming they're going to win Pennsylvania (I guess to project confidence). And every four years, they come up short. I see no reason to expect this year to be any different.
Click to expand...

This year may be no different, but this year may be different for several reasons.

-In the last election there was definitely a huge enthusiasm gap for republicans. I know because I was really unenthusiastic about McCain and it was reflected in the polls. Obama was able to run without a record, but this time Obama a record and it is terrible, which will reduce enthusiasm for Obama.
-You have to believe that people in coal country are going to be much more motivated this election than they were last election. Obama's agenda for coal has become all too clear; he wants to bankrupt the coal industry, which will many counties in Pennsylvania.
-Superstorm Sandy may distract many of the Philadelphia voters (Obama voters on average) who may be more interested in getting back to normalcy than going out to vote.

That said it will be at best close if Romney squeezes out a win in PA.
 
Samhain said:
It would be interesting to hear that Penn had "minor power outages" when there are still about 100,000 without power in Cleveland.
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According to the Times Online, there are only about 91,000 people still without power in the entire state of Pennsylvania...mostly in Lehigh and Bucks Counties, which lean Democrat but not overwhelmingly so. It shouldn't affect the outcome of the election much.

It sounds like whoever is the power company in Cleveland really sucks.
 
Pennsylvania is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas that requires fracking to develop. I don't understand why anybody in Pennsylvania would vote for Obama.
 
iguanaman said:
Sandy showed people just how competant a President can be. Quite a contrast from the last huge disaster and President.
Click to expand...

So we are comparing category five hurricane Katrina to "superstorm" Sandy? There is no comparison, though the media will spin it your way.
 
The curveball here is a big winter storm moving in on election day to the eastern half of the state. That could affect turnout in the liberal areas of the state.

The eastern half of the state is home to Philly, where all the democratic votes come from. The western half of the state is more conservative.

This could be why Romney is suddenly pouring resources in to Pennsylvania....a smart election day strategy by Romeny.
 
Peter Grimm said:
The curveball here is a big winter storm moving in on election day to the eastern half of the state. That could affect turnout in the liberal areas of the state.

The eastern half of the state is home to Philly, where all the democratic votes come from. The western half of the state is more conservative.

This could be why Romney is suddenly pouring resources in to Pennsylvania....a smart election day strategy by Romeny.
Click to expand...

The storm is actually forecast for Wednesday. You're right though about Philly. In 2008 Obama came out of Phila. county up 479,000 votes and also did well in the 4 surrounding counties. Romney's expected to do much better in the suburbs than McCain and Romney has to hope for a smaller turnout in Philadelphia. Governor Corbett and Senator Toomey both won state wide election in 2010 because the democratic turnout there was smaller than in 2008. It all depends on whether Obama's base turns out in Phila.
 
Romney should have promised he'd work with the Philly major to end the parking wars, that'd done the trick. :mrgreen:
 
Ever notice how much an election is like a football game?

First, the fans always shout that their team is the best, and a sure winner, even when they know that the odds are pretty even.

Then, after the touchdowns are counted, the losers blame home field advantage (winter storms and hurricanes), the refs (media), cheating by the other guys (election fraud), anything but that the other team played a better game.

Then, they grouse about how victory was taken away from them.

The only difference is in the weapons used. In the football game, it's big linemen and fast quarterbacks who know how to throw a ball accurately. In an election, it's a huge BS shooting match, just try to bury the other guys in a smelly, oozy, damp, steaming, heap of the stuff.

and in the results of the outcome. In a football game, there really is no result other than bragging rights for something you really had no part in. In an election, our lives really can be affected for better or for worse.
 
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