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Election too close to call as of Nov 4

Harshaw said:
Did you actually read those? One was written in July 2008, one was written in September 2008, and the other is a Democratic Underground post from a week ago, where the subject line was an obvious error -- the poster wrote "McCain" but meant Romney, as his post makes clear.
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I'm glad someone else actually reads linked articles. :)
 
apdst said:
I'm going to start stock piling food and cash, because the country is in trouble.
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Bobcat said:
Good point, If obama wins I will call my broker and tell him to buy lots of Smith and Wesson stock.
The gun stores will be selling everything they have in stock.
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Be afraid, be very afraid, the boogeyman is coming!
 
A lot of voters have already had their say and in most swing States it is for re-election of Obama. We will see if Romney can overcome a 100,000 vote Dem lead in early voting in Florida for instance.


Florida, the nation’s biggest swing-vote prize, wraps up its early voting Saturday night. As of mid-day, with about 4 million of the state’s voters having cast ballots, registered Democrats had built up a margin of more than 100,000 votes over registered Republicans.
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Obama appears to have edge in key state early voting - chicagotribune.com
 
AdamT said:
Well, that's one year and the polls were pretty close. Some years favor Dems slgithly and other years they favor Republicans slightly. Looking at multiple elections there's no statistically measurable bias for one party over the other party.
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I can't remember a recent election in the last decade or so where more polls overestimated Republican support rather than vice versa.
 
Wiseone said:
Be afraid, be very afraid, the boogeyman is coming!
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Look at all the stupid **** he did, knowing he would have to try to get re-elected. Just imagine what he's going to do as a lame duck.
 
apdst said:
Look at all the stupid **** he did, knowing he would have to try to get re-elected. Just imagine what he's going to do as a lame duck.
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Ya better stock up on guns before the socialism comes to get you, its probably already under your bed!
 
AdamT said:
As usual the MSM is pumping the story for all it's worth, but the truth is the election is not too close to call. Not even close. The most accurate predicter of the last two elections, Sam Wang of Princeton, rates Obama's chances of winning at 98.2% using one model and 99.9% using a slightly different model. FYI, Wang called the electoral vote count exactly in '04 and he missed by one EC vote in '08. IOW, he has been much better than 99% accurate in the last two elections.

Nate Silver, who has also been quite accurate, presently puts Obama's chances at 85%. The betting lines make Obama a better than 3:1 favorite. Drew Linzer of Votamatic predicts a 332 to 206 Obama win.

The only way anyone can seriously argue that this election is too close to call is if they ignore the state polls.
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Got to love the hackery.

Hey AdamT, how accurate has the Colorado University forecast been and for how long?

Oh, that one doesn't fit your cherry picking results..
 
AdamT said:
Okay, if you think there's someone else who has been more accurate please post a link showing that someone called both the '04 and '08 elections 100% accurately. Because Wang missed a combined total of ONE electoral vote in the two elections.
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Well if you work it out there must be thousands (and Im sure many to the exact number). Think about it, especially these days with those websites that allow you to make your own electoral maps, theres hundreds of thousands of predictions & really not that many combinations of results, even by accident youre going to get thousands getting it right every year. Even Ive called elections 100% right before & Im making no claims about my abilities, just stating the obvious, its not that remarkable and doesnt qualify for a title.
 
vauge said:
My recollection of history appears different than yours. I specifically remember being glued to the TV/Talk radio hearing and knowing that McCain had a surge in the polls. I followed the EC votes and polls very very closely back then. Just like in 2008, McCain owned the media. CNN/MSNBC/FOX all were showing positive messages about him constantly. 1 critical to 5 positive news stories. It is, to me, about the same now.

Just like in 2008, all 3rd party polls have Obama winning by a landslide but the big two have it too close to call.
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The only stories I find actually from October 2008 saying "too close to call" are for individual states which were, and from McCain's pollster.

RCP shows the difference between then and now:

RealClearPolitics - Obama vs. Romney Compared to Obama vs. McCain

Go to November 1. Obama was ahead by 7.
 
Bobcat said:
Romney will be declared winner with over 300 electoral votes by 8PM EST. Chris Matthews will claim it was all because america hates blacks.
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Clue for you: By 8 poll close in states representing only 270 electoral votes. So not only will it not be 300, it would take Romney winning every state to get 270 and be declared winner.

2012 Election Day State by State Poll Closing Times
 
AdamT said:
Okay, if you think there's someone else who has been more accurate please post a link showing that someone called both the '04 and '08 elections 100% accurately. Because Wang missed a combined total of ONE electoral vote in the two elections.
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The CU predictions have called all of them since 1980.

The 'Redskins Rule' has also predicted them back much further than that...

Screen Shot 2012-11-04 at 2.25.56 PM.jpg

AdamT, please tell us why these don't matter or are not accurate this year.
 
Arbo said:
The CU predictions have called all of them since 1980.

The 'Redskins Rule' has also predicted them back much further than that...

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AdamT, please tell us why these don't matter or are not accurate this year.
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The Redskins Rule: Because it's a God damned football game and the model was created by a casual observer of sports history.
 
Arbo said:
The CU predictions have called all of them since 1980.

The 'Redskins Rule' has also predicted them back much further than that...

View attachment 67137304

AdamT, please tell us why these don't matter or are not accurate this year.
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Just calling a winner is one thing. Most years that's easy. Show me someone who's done better than 1075 - 1 in picking the EC in the last couple of elections.
 
Fiddytree said:
The Redskins Rule: Because it's a God damned football game and the model was created by a casual observer of sports history.
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Has it not been 'correct' since 1940??
 
AdamT said:
Just calling a winner is one thing. Most years that's easy. Show me someone who's done better than 1075 - 1 in picking the EC in the last couple of elections.
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Who gives a crap what the EC outcome is? What matters is who wins... anything else is just extra nonsense...
 
Arbo said:
Has it not been 'correct' since 1940??
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It required adjustments if you actually look at it.

It's superstition. Good God, man.
 
Fiddytree said:
It required adjustments if you actually look at it.

It's superstition. Good God, man.
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All predictions are statics, spun one way or another. What about the CU prediction?
 
vauge said:
John Mccain vs Obama still too close to call per CNN and NPR - Democratic Underground

The Barack Obama-John McCain Race Is Too Close to Call - Bonnie Erbe (usnews.com)

Romney vs. Obama still too close to call | RedState

All written in October four years ago.
Just sayin...
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Your first link is to a recent debate forum where someone claims Obama/McCain was too close to call in 2008.
Your second link was written in July 2008
Your third link was written in September 2008 right after McCain suspended his campaign. It's pretty much agreed that's when he lost the election.
The race was very close up until then but this close to the election everyone knew Obama was going to win big.
 
Arbo said:
All predictions are statics, spun one way or another. What about the CU prediction?
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There's a reason why I didn't pick on it. That one actually has legs to stand on in comparison with a bloody football coincidence.
 
Fiddytree said:
There's a reason why I didn't pick on it. That one actually has legs to stand on in comparison with a bloody football coincidence.
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Well, let's wait to hear from AdamT on that one, should be funny whatever dodge he uses.

We can revisit the Redskins after the election.
 
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