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Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral vote

Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

Dr. Chuckles said:
why do you consider him a hack?
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From Duce's provided Wiki site....

In October 2012, Josh Jordan wrote in National Review that "While there is nothing wrong with trying to make sense of the polls, it should be noted that Nate Silver is openly rooting for Obama, and it shows in the way he forecasts the election." Jordan says that Silver conducts "the type of analysis that walks a very thin line between forecasting and cheerleading. When you weight a poll based on what you think of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll (party sampling, changes in favorability, job approval, etc), it can make for forecasts that mirror what you hope will happen rather than what’s most likely to happen."[117]
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Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
From Duce's provided Wiki site....
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Lewis is an ignoramus who fails to make a single substantive argument.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
From Duce's provided Wiki site....
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dude, offering another's unsubstantiated opinion doesn't actually lend any more credibility to your own. Clearly Nate is a liberal (more likely progressive), but after years of reading him I never felt he was pushing some overt agenda or giving bias laden breakdowns. So please, can you offer an actual example?
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
Silver is a political hack, ex DailyKOS bot, that the NYTimes put forth because he had a good year in '08 predicting the Obama win....Well, knock my socks, and smack the baby on the ass, who couldn't have predicted an Obama win in '08? What a joke.
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...and how did you do predicting state by state electoral college wins and senate wins. Silver was 49 out of 50 on the states AND, more impressively, predicted ALL 35 Senate races.

Nate Silver - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Key paragraph from above link:

"....Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). As his model predicted, the races in Missouri and North Carolina were particularly close. He also correctly predicted the winners of every U.S. Senate race. The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad,[47] and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator...."


He also correctly forecast the 6 seat loss in the US Senate for Dems in 2010.

.....The transition to the new blog FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus sponsored by The New York Times took place on August 25, 2010,with the publication online of Silver's first article, "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats".[52] From then until the mid-term elections of 2010 in November, Silver's blog focused almost exclusively on developing forecasts of the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives as well as state gubernatorial contests. Silver's Times Sunday Magazine feature first appeared on November 19, 2010, under the heading "Go Figure".[53] It was later titled "Acts of Mild Subversion".[54].....

Though past performance isn't always indicative of future results, Silver's track record is pretty Dm impressive. Sorry, that I can't let you live in your ignorance that Silver simply called the overall 2008 race.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
Silver is a political hack, ex DailyKOS bot, that the NYTimes put forth because he had a good year in '08 predicting the Obama win....Well, knock my socks, and smack the baby on the ass, who couldn't have predicted an Obama win in '08? What a joke.
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So, no substantive argument against the analysis in the article, only ad hom attacks?
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

Dr. Chuckles said:
I never really felt the guy injected politics in any of his breakdowns that I have read.

Can you post some examples?
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Nah, I don't feel like doing the surfing right now to find you relevant quotes, just being honest....Start a thread about Silver truthers, and I'll join later....
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
Well, not to disparage "Sam" I think the jury is out until the last vote is counted no? So we will have to wait and see if the vaunted 'Poblano' from the DailyKOS is right...
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Sure you never really know until the election itself, but thats no reason to deny information we have before the election.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
Nah, I don't feel like doing the surfing right now to find you relevant quotes, just being honest....Start a thread about Silver truthers, and I'll join later....
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Sure, it's it's easy to make baseless accusations. Supporting them ... not so much. :roll:
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
Silver is a political hack, ex DailyKOS bot, that the NYTimes put forth because he had a good year in '08 predicting the Obama win....Well, knock my socks, and smack the baby on the ass, who couldn't have predicted an Obama win in '08? What a joke.
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Because a DailyKOS bot predicts a big Republican swing in 2010. :roll:
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

Wiseone said:
Instead of "suspecting" and making an opinion, why don't you research it?

Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias » Blog Archive » Grading Nate Silver’s Election Predictions

And you know regardless of where this guy has worked in the past, numbers are numbers.
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Are you seriously asking a partisan hack to do research?

You know full well that their carrying card requires them to block all search engines on their phones and computers.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

AdamT said:
Sure, it's it's easy to make baseless accusations. Supporting them ... not so much. :roll:
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You would know....:shrug:
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

obvious Child said:
Are you seriously asking a partisan hack to do research?

You know full well that their carrying card requires them to block all search engines on their phones and computers.
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Watchin' football dude, cut some slack.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
Watchin' football dude, cut some slack.
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Then you probably should refrain from posting stuff like this while you're watching football.

Calling out a statistician requires research. If you are not willing to do it, expect to get a lot of flak.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
You would know....:shrug:
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From reading your posts, yes.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

AdamT said:
From reading your posts, yes.
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:doh Well played sir, well played....:boxer
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

Amigo said:
Here's my take:

Political Pine Tree: Election: Nate Silver's Clever Move
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HAHAHAHAHAHA! You're quoting some unknown posting on a site like Debate Politics! HAHAHAHAHA! The genius who wrote that post lives in the now famous Republican bubble where politics is in an alternative universe. For example: "Early voting is overwhelmingly going for Romney 54-45, even in Ohio, Republicans are beating Democrats."

So untrue! Nate Silver is amazing and until he's proven wrong I can't understand why anyone would not believe his modeling. I do understand how those of you living in the bubble want to really believe that Silver is wrong but that's only inside the bubble's alternative universe. In the real world Silver has his past record to use as a reference.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
How'd he do in '10? Not so good I suspect.....In any case he was a numbers guy with baseball, that worked on the Obama '08 campaign, and blogged for DailyKOS, impartial? I don't think so.

Interesting fact, Keith Olberman was a sports guy too that tried to bring his venom into the political sphere, now he can't find a job even with Current....lol...
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2010 were mostly elections for the House and there weren't polls for each race that are plentiful enough to create a model. It's not a relevant point and proves nothing.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

jakiejakester said:
HAHAHAHAHAHA! You're quoting some unknown posting on a site like Debate Politics! HAHAHAHAHA! The genius who wrote that post lives in the now famous Republican bubble where politics is in an alternative universe. For example: "Early voting is overwhelmingly going for Romney 54-45, even in Ohio, Republicans are beating Democrats."

So untrue! Nate Silver is amazing and until he's proven wrong I can't understand why anyone would not believe his modeling. I do understand how those of you living in the bubble want to really believe that Silver is wrong but that's only inside the bubble's alternative universe. In the real world Silver has his past record to use as a reference.
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That is my blog.. :roll:
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

I can't wait for the day after the election when the electoral college looks exactly like Silver's predictions, should be fun to watch people's heads explode.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

Your Star said:
I can't wait for the day after the election when the electoral college looks exactly like Silver's predictions, should be fun to watch people's heads explode.
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I don't know why people devote this much energy to deriding him or supporting him. Liberals have elevated him to superstardom when Silver himself knows how shaky the field is with prediction work. To much of the extent that it is possible, fame found him rather than vice versa.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

j-mac said:
That'll be President Mittens to you in three days....:mrgreen:
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January 20th to be specific.
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

obvious Child said:
Because a DailyKOS bot predicts a big Republican swing in 2010. :roll:
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Who didn't predict a big republican win in 2010? Other than Nancy Pelosi?
 
Re: Nate Silver forecast gives Obama an 85.3 percent chance of winning the electoral

o the
StillBallin75 said:
Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased - NYTimes.com

Interesting statistical analysis based on polls in battleground states from Nate Silver.
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I agree with everything in the link. His prediction is based on the polls he's reviewed. But republicans have been arguing the whole election cycle that the vast majority of polls have been biased in Obama's favor. That the turnout in 2012 will be closer to 2010 than 2008. If it is than Romney will win and Silver now has an excuse for being wrong. If the polls have been correct in surveying a realistic model of the actual voter turnout than Obama wins and Silver has been correct. Either way by writing this column now Silver cannot lose.
 
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