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GALLUP: Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

Erod

Erod

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GALLUP: Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
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Regarding Ohio:
But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.
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If this Gallup poll is accurate, it's game, set, and match. Democrats historically win early voting (because who needs to watch the debates anyway, right?).

If Obama has a big problem with his base, then perhaps the landslide predictors are on to something. Romney certainly has no problem with his base....or independents it appears.
 
Yeah, it's over. Might as well just go shopping on election day; sock in your supplies for the victory party. :D
 
AdamT said:
Yeah, it's over. Might as well just go shopping on election day; sock in your supplies for the victory party. :D
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The party will be held while waiting in line to vote. That's what Republicans do.
 
Erod said:
The party will be held while waiting in line to vote. That's what Republicans do.
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That and trod all over the po masses while stealing babies to eat at the feast.
 
In 2012, noted poll analyst Mark Blumenthal criticized Gallup for a slight but routine under-weighting of black and Hispanic Americans that led to an approximately 2% shift of support away from Barack Obama. At the same time Blumenthal commended Gallup for its "admirable commitment to transparency" and suggested that other polling firms disclose their raw data and methodologies.[5] wiki
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I'll bet David Axelrod soils his pants every time Gallup publishes anything these days.
 
tres borrachos said:
I'll bet David Axelrod soils his pants every time Gallup publishes anything these days.
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There isn't a more smarmy campaign manager in this country... I can't stand watching his blatant lies... and yes, you can see everytime he is asked about Gallup polls he twitches...
 
IndepCentristMA said:
There isn't a more smarmy campaign manager in this country... I can't stand watching his blatant lies... and yes, you can see everytime he is asked about Gallup polls he twitches...
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Axelrod reminds me of that strange Algebra teacher that smoke cigarettes outside and looked funny at all the junior high girls.

Obama, Rahm, Axelrod, Wasserman-Schultz, Pelosi, Holder, Napolitano, Reid, Biden....what an odd collection of awkward, disconnected, deranged people. Obama is the only one I can imagine having a halfway normal conversation with over a beer.
 
IndepCentristMA said:
There isn't a more smarmy campaign manager in this country... I can't stand watching his blatant lies... and yes, you can see everytime he is asked about Gallup polls he twitches...
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Between him & Stephanie Cutter, it's like watching high school girls who expected to get asked to the homecoming dance by the Captain of the football team, but finding out that he asked the head cheerleader instead.
 
Erod said:
Axelrod reminds me of that strange Algebra teacher that smoke cigarettes outside and looked funny at all the junior high girls.

Obama, Rahm, Axelrod, Wasserman-Schultz, Pelosi, Holder, Napolitano, Reid, Biden....what an odd collection of awkward, disconnected, deranged people. Obama is the only one I can imagine having a halfway normal conversation with over a beer.
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Every time I see Axelrod on TV, I expect to see runny eggs dripping from his moustache.
 
I am voting today to add my vote to the pro-romney numbers.
 
AdamT said:
"Fifty-seven percent of Florida voters who said they have already cast a ballot did so for the president, compared with 42 percent who indicated they have already voted for Romney. Obama also leads by 10 among those who intend to vote early, while Romney holds a 13-point lead among voters who plan to wait for Election Day."

Poll: Presidential Race Tied Up In Florida, Obama Up Big Among Early Voters | TPM LiveWire
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Why didn't they state how much of the likely voter model has already voted? is it 2%? is it 80%?
 
Erod said:
Axelrod reminds me of that strange Algebra teacher that smoke cigarettes outside and looked funny at all the junior high girls.

Obama, Rahm, Axelrod, Wasserman-Schultz, Pelosi, Holder, Napolitano, Reid, Biden....what an odd collection of awkward, disconnected, deranged people. Obama is the only one I can imagine having a halfway normal conversation with over a beer.
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Right... you nailed it... the very same teacher who owns an Italian restaurant that he hires the more attractive students of his as hostesses so he can flirt with em all the time...

Rahm is an alien with no soul, that can morph into whatever shape he wants and mimick any voice he wants to in order to achieve his nefarious ends... Wasserman-Schulz is that tattle tail with the ugly braces who never has a clue what she is talking about but is so adamant that she is right... Pelosi is that rich spoiled girl who assumes everyone should do exactly what she wants because her parents always did for her... Holder is that corrupt POS that knows his dad is a cop and he is going to be able to get away with anything so he doesn't give a rats behind and messes around with things knowing he can lie his way out of them... Napolitano thinks she's the princess, but is one tattoo removed from Jersey Shore... Reid is that guy who worked his whole life to be Mr Rogers, but realized too late that Mr Rogers was rather square, so he goes out of his way to do things that make him seem cool... and Biden, jeez... Biden is Biden, what more needs to be said about him...

Idk if I could have a beer with Obama... he's that guy that's always too that... you know the one that doesn't ever relax and is constantly trying to impress upon you... that it's like give it up already dude...
 
AdamT said:
"Fifty-seven percent of Florida voters who said they have already cast a ballot did so for the president, compared with 42 percent who indicated they have already voted for Romney. Obama also leads by 10 among those who intend to vote early, while Romney holds a 13-point lead among voters who plan to wait for Election Day."

Poll: Presidential Race Tied Up In Florida, Obama Up Big Among Early Voters | TPM LiveWire
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LMFAO... this is the guy who loves to knock outliers, right?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama
RCP Average 10/22 - 10/28 -- -- 49.3 48.0 Romney +1.3
CNN/Opinion Research 10/25 - 10/28 770 LV 3.5 50 49 Romney +1
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/27 595 LV 4.1 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 687 LV 3.7 48 49 Obama +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 4.0 50 48 Romney +2
Gravis Marketing 10/24 - 10/24 1182 LV 2.8 50 49 Romney +1
Sunshine State News/VSS 10/22 - 10/24 1001 LV 3.1 51 46 Romney +5


Also... Registered as Democrat or Republican doesn't mean vote for Democrat or Republican...

What the numbers discussed that I saw indicated is that Romney was dominating the I-4 corridor, and everyone knows Miami and TB typically go Dem, the panhandle and southwest FL go Republican, and the I-4 corridor is what decides the race...

I don't think either of them walks away with the state, but I think we will know by 10-11pm that it's a Romney win in FL, and a Romney win by midnight...
 
IndepCentristMA said:
LMFAO... this is the guy who loves to knock outliers, right?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama
RCP Average 10/22 - 10/28 -- -- 49.3 48.0 Romney +1.3
CNN/Opinion Research 10/25 - 10/28 770 LV 3.5 50 49 Romney +1
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/27 595 LV 4.1 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 687 LV 3.7 48 49 Obama +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/25 - 10/25 750 LV 4.0 50 48 Romney +2
Gravis Marketing 10/24 - 10/24 1182 LV 2.8 50 49 Romney +1
Sunshine State News/VSS 10/22 - 10/24 1001 LV 3.1 51 46 Romney +5


Also... Registered as Democrat or Republican doesn't mean vote for Democrat or Republican...

What the numbers discussed that I saw indicated is that Romney was dominating the I-4 corridor, and everyone knows Miami and TB typically go Dem, the panhandle and southwest FL go Republican, and the I-4 corridor is what decides the race...

I don't think either of them walks away with the state, but I think we will know by 10-11pm that it's a Romney win in FL, and a Romney win by midnight...
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Topic of the thread is early voting -- that's what I posted. I agree that Romney is a slight favorite to win Florida.

Now, can you admit that Obama is a bigger favorite to win Ohio? Are you physically capable of it?
 
There is hope for change afterall. :)

I don't care which one of the candidates I could imagine myself having a beer with. None of us are having a beer with either one of them, and I'd bet a million bucks they're both lightweights anyway.
 
The Man said:
There is hope for change afterall. :)

I don't care which one of the candidates I could imagine myself having a beer with. None of us are having a beer with either one of them, and I'd bet a million bucks they're both lightweights anyway.
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Well, given that Romney doesn't drink, I'd say it's a given in his case.
 
In Ohio, where the polls are saying that the President leads early voting on a 2-1 margin, early voting is at 50-60% the rate of 4 years ago.
 
AdamT said:
Topic of the thread is early voting -- that's what I posted. I agree that Romney is a slight favorite to win Florida.

Now, can you admit that Obama is a bigger favorite to win Ohio? Are you physically capable of it?
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I will admit that Obama has had a lead in Ohio... but the polls in Ohio have consistently been tightening, and a few have had a tie or a Romney lead lately... and the Governor of Ohio was discussing the internal numbers which he says are going to point to a Romney victory...

One thing to be reminded of in Ohio... they purged 450,000 voters from the voter registry... that's dead voters, or voters that have moved out of the state... and that's something the Democrats have used to their advantage in Cuyahoga County in past elections, that won't be as much at their disposal in this election... Keep that in mind as it gets late at night next Tuesday and Cuyahoga County is doing it's patented late posting of its results... their won't be as many ballots that they can fake as there normally are...
 
Chuck Todd made me laugh this morning. He is now backing away from polling because everything is up in the air. While it was true, it felt more like "Hey we are not going to report these Romney may be in the lead polls".
 
Every indication is this is going to be a route and every day as more info comes in the better it looks but I never count my chickens before they hatch and I expect alot of Dem cheating that will have to be overcome by a huge Romney turnout.
 
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