If it is certain a state will go one way or another, then a 3rd vote makes good sense as it is the only way your vote really would mean anything.
So let's look at that statement for a moment, shall we?
The concept that your vote only means something, if, and only if, your vote for a 3rd party is in a decidedly red or blue state.
There is some truth to what you are saying, but not to the individual.
A 3rd party vote in a hard red, or hard blue state means something to the 3rd party you are voting for.
You won't be able to swing the outcome of your state, but you will be contributing to another party's vote percentage.
That being said, where your statement falls short is in neglecting what a vote means to an individual.
As a 3rd party voter, it means I was honest with myself, who I am, and what I believe.
I did my due diligence to effect a change for the better, based upon what the current status quo looks like.
I did not succumb to the fear propaganda of "If X wins, Y will happen".
I did not accept either of the 2 poisons, one of which I will ultimately have to swallow.
I did not tow a party line.
If Hitler and Mussolini were standing in front of us today, both were going to kill us, and there was no way we could avoid that outcome, than I and other voters of conscience, would be the remaining patriots that would spit in their face, and tell them to go **** themselves.
The rest of society would choose who gets to kill them, yes, but would not die honorably, with dignity, or with pride. They would die cowards.