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For those of you who do not know, SWAG means (Scientific Wild Ass Guess). and that is just what this is going to be.
I was just in 538 and 270 to win and Electoral vote and did some quick math (thus the term SWAG)
Based on these sites and some census data it appears that approximately 42% of eligible voters may vote in this election. that would be about 126M. Assuming that this is the mean, it could be as low as 120 or as high as 140M.
Right now Romney has about 26 states in the bag or pretty close, Obama has 24. Of the swing states based on the sources mentioned I am giving Romney Florida and Virginia. The problme is that most of these states do not have large populations.
Obama, as I said has 24 and many of these have large populations.
So from an electoral college perspective Romey will get about 248 electoral votes and Obama will get around 290 which makes Obama the winner.
The site(s) mentioned above show a slightly different view in polls when it comes to the popular vote and heres where the SWAG comes in. It is unreasonable to assume that either canidate is going to take 100% of the popular vote in any state in which they are solid or considered a favorite. The average split I have seen is between 20 and 30% in most of the states one way or the other.
That would mean that using the information from the sites above, Obama could get as many as 68M votes and Romney could get as many as 64M. My SWAG margin of error will be put at +/- 5% of 130M or 6.5M votes.
So from this IF its anywhere close Obama wins the popular and the popular vote is a statistical toss up with Obama having a marginal edge.
This is not a prediction just having fun with numbers. Any comments?
I was just in 538 and 270 to win and Electoral vote and did some quick math (thus the term SWAG)
Based on these sites and some census data it appears that approximately 42% of eligible voters may vote in this election. that would be about 126M. Assuming that this is the mean, it could be as low as 120 or as high as 140M.
Right now Romney has about 26 states in the bag or pretty close, Obama has 24. Of the swing states based on the sources mentioned I am giving Romney Florida and Virginia. The problme is that most of these states do not have large populations.
Obama, as I said has 24 and many of these have large populations.
So from an electoral college perspective Romey will get about 248 electoral votes and Obama will get around 290 which makes Obama the winner.
The site(s) mentioned above show a slightly different view in polls when it comes to the popular vote and heres where the SWAG comes in. It is unreasonable to assume that either canidate is going to take 100% of the popular vote in any state in which they are solid or considered a favorite. The average split I have seen is between 20 and 30% in most of the states one way or the other.
That would mean that using the information from the sites above, Obama could get as many as 68M votes and Romney could get as many as 64M. My SWAG margin of error will be put at +/- 5% of 130M or 6.5M votes.
So from this IF its anywhere close Obama wins the popular and the popular vote is a statistical toss up with Obama having a marginal edge.
This is not a prediction just having fun with numbers. Any comments?
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