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First Polls After Final Debate

Peter Grimm

Peter Grimm

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Rasmussen Reports ......10/22 - 10/24......1500 LV......3.0....50.....47......Romney +3
ABC News/Wash Post ....10/21 - 10/24......1386 LV......3.0....50.....47......Romney +3
 
From Nate Silver

fivethirtyeight-1025-wedpolls-blog480.png


Thursdays will come up tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see if this thing you claim actually happens.

Right now its bouncing around statistical noise.
 
Jobs report friday before the election will determine the winner (and I am pretty sure the report is already locked in Eric Holder's safe)
 
Hang on...

The debate was on 10/22. You have to look at the sample dates. The majority of your polls sampled people BEFORE the final debate.

The Rasmussen and ABC polls I have are the only ones, so far, done after the final debate.

megaprogman said:
From Nate Silver

fivethirtyeight-1025-wedpolls-blog480.png


Thursdays will come up tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see if this thing you claim actually happens.

Right now its bouncing around statistical noise.
Click to expand...
 
This Benghazi deal hasn't had a chance to factor in either. That should sway things a bit.

Fisher said:
Jobs report friday before the election will determine the winner (and I am pretty sure the report is already locked in Eric Holder's safe)
Click to expand...
 
Peter Grimm said:
Hang on...

The debate was on 10/22. You have to look at the sample dates. The majority of your polls sampled people BEFORE the final debate.

The Rasmussen and ABC polls I have are the only ones, so far, done after the final debate.
Click to expand...

here is the quote before the picture.

Take Wednesday’s national tracking polls, for instance. (There are now eight of them published each day.) Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the polls, an online poll conducted for Reuters by the polling organization Ipsos. He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.
Click to expand...

Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped - NYTimes.com
 
I don't think at this point that the polls really matter much... It's my feeling (barring something huge popping up to negatively effect one of them) that this election has already been decided. I think nearly all the American people that are going to vote in 12 days, already know exactly who they are casting their ballot for... Therefore the fluctuation in the polls from here until election day won't carry a whole lot of meaning as far as momentum is concerned.
 
Peter Grimm said:
This Benghazi deal hasn't had a chance to factor in either. That should sway things a bit.
Click to expand...

I doubt it. Jobs Jobs Jobs in all shapes and forms.
 
Peter Grimm said:
You're confusing a poll's release date with it's sampling date. Here, check it out. You can see the dates people were sampled, and when the polls were released. The Rasmussen and ABC polls are the only ones that capture what happened AFTER 10/22.

View attachment 67136810
Click to expand...

Like I said, if you are correct in your assessment, it will show up in other aggregate sites soon. One or two polls in isolation mean very little, its the overall trend that gives us valuable data.
 
It'll be another couple of days before we have a good idea what effect, if any, the debate had.
 
Thursday, October 25
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

This is now the third day in a row - and the fifth time in the past six days - that Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states. This survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, and most of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of Monday night’s presidential debate. Romney has now held a modest lead for 14 of the last 17 days; Obama was ahead twice, and the candidates ran even once.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Nationally, Romney remains at the 50% level of support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Click to expand...

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™
 
I agree with that. It's too soon to tell, and a lot has happened since the last debate (Benghazi). However, I think it should come as a shock to anyone who thought Obama cleaned up during the last debate.

megaprogman said:
Like I said, if you are correct in your assessment, it will show up in other aggregate sites soon. One or two polls in isolation mean very little, its the overall trend that gives us valuable data.
Click to expand...
 
Does anybody else think it's funny that most polls have Obama's support level at..... you guessed it....... 47 PERCENT.

:lamo:lamo:lamo

polls.jpg
 
Peter Grimm said:
I agree with that. It's too soon to tell, and a lot has happened since the last debate (Benghazi). However, I think it should come as a shock to anyone who thought Obama cleaned up during the last debate.
Click to expand...

Even people who thought Obama won the debate (most people) didn't think it was going to have a big impact on the polls. OTOH, in a race this tight even a quarter to half a point change is significant ... if it persists.
 
From early indications, it doesn't even look like it moved the needle. As an immigrant, it always surprises me a bit at first, but I have come to understand that Americans couldn't care less about foreign policy.

AdamT said:
Even people who thought Obama won the debate (most people) didn't think it was going to have a big impact on the polls. OTOH, in a race this tight even a quarter to half a point change is significant ... if it persists.
Click to expand...
 
megaprogman said:
From Nate Silver

fivethirtyeight-1025-wedpolls-blog480.png


Thursdays will come up tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see if this thing you claim actually happens.

Right now its bouncing around statistical noise.
Click to expand...

IBD put out a new one since this post. Obama lost a point back to +2 instead of +3.
 
Peter Grimm said:
From early indications, it doesn't even look like it moved the needle. As an immigrant, it always surprises me a bit at first, but I have come to understand that Americans couldn't care less about foreign policy.
Click to expand...

I disagree... Usually foriegn policy is an important factor in presidential elections, but not this time around... It's the economy, the economy and the economy that are important to this election.
 
CNN had some new polling earlier seemed to favor Romney across the polls but I don't recall all the details--I think CO was tied and Romney is up 2 in VA which has been the case for a couple weeks across most all polls. The takeaway was it will be Ohio Ohio Ohio
 
Fisher said:
CNN had some new polling earlier seemed to favor Romney across the polls but I don't recall all the details--I think CO was tied and Romney is up 2 in VA which has been the case for a couple weeks across most all polls. The takeaway was it will be Ohio Ohio Ohio
Click to expand...

There are three recent polls from Ohio. In one Obama was +5, another had it Obama +3, and the other had it a tie. There were two Colorado polls today; one had Obama +4 and another had it a tie. A Nevada poll had Obama at +3. Two Nevada polls yesterday had Obama at +2 and +4. A Florida poll today had Romney at +1, and a North Carolina poll showed the race tied.

The NC poll is interesting, as the state has been sparsely polled. The three polls this month went from a big lead for Romney to a pretty big lead to tied.
 
melons said:
IBD put out a new one since this post. Obama lost a point back to +2 instead of +3.
Click to expand...

It will show up tomorrow on nate silver's aggregate, im sure.

But again, individual polls don't matter so much as the overall trend.
 
megaprogman said:
It will show up tomorrow on nate silver's aggregate, im sure.

But again, individual polls don't matter so much as the overall trend.
Click to expand...

I agree that they don't matter as much as the overall trend, but with that averaged in to the over all trend would bring it down. I actually pulled that from real clear politics over all trend though.
 
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