• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

The myth of Romney's momentum

I think there would be merit to the argument if it had been made that most of Romney's momentum has been within the conservative ranks anyway who were holding out on him. I imagine his gains in the middle have not been as huge as the numbers shift makes it seems.
 
helix2048 said:
Raising money for a campaign has no significance over how people will vote. The money Romney keeps getting is most likely more contributions from the same corporations and top 1% that have already given him money. Perhaps giving a breakdown of where the money is coming from would be more valid, rather than an inside post from the Romney campaign.
Click to expand...

Report I saw was 91% of contributions were in increements of less than $250, so perhaps the Obama narrative on Romney has affected your perception of the folks that support him.

Romney has all the momentum. You still see serious sample bias in polls, and when you look at the demos that matter and ignore the D+9, D+7 junk you see in states that went D or R +/- 1 or 2 in 2010, Romney leads with independents by margins similar to what Obama won with in 2008.

You also see the momentum in the tone of the various campaigns. Romeny looking forward and trying to be inspirational, with Obama trying out all different sorts of ways to atack Romney and call him a liar. Combine that with the various failed efforts to create the next distracting shiny bauble (big bird, binders, bayonets) and Obama's pathetic excuse for a campaign platform document (basically just glossy photos of Obama with a few re-tread bullet points), and it is clear the CAMPAIGNS think Romney ahs the momentum, regardless of what their spin folks say.

As for the Obama platform being basically just pictures of Obama, reminds me of the rather crass one-liner I saw a while back about Obama:

"Barack Obama is so narcisistic, he masturbates to videos of himself masturbating"

I know, off point. Just thought that was very funny at the time.
 
Fisher said:
I think there would be merit to the argument if it had been made that most of Romney's momentum has been within the conservative ranks anyway who were holding out on him. I imagine his gains in the middle have not been as huge as the numbers shift makes it seems.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I think we're seeing fairly high fluctuations in voter intensity, but a pretty stable race in terms of actual numbers.
 
CJ 2.0 said:
Report I saw was 91% of contributions were in increements of less than $250, so perhaps the Obama narrative on Romney has affected your perception of the folks that support him.
Click to expand...

Bull****. Post your source.
 
Travis007 said:
finally you said something that is factual.. congrats..
Click to expand...

What I don't think can be reflected in the polls is voter turnout. There is no doubt the enthusiasm Obama carried in 08 is not there now. On the flip side the Republicans want desperately to oust Obama. Huge difference in enthusiasm between the two parties.
 
Born Free said:
What I don't think can be reflected in the polls is voter turnout. There is no doubt the enthusiasm Obama carried in 08 is not there now. On the flip side the Republicans want desperately to oust Obama. Huge difference in enthusiasm between the two parties.
Click to expand...

yep..the polls aint showing that.. I feel good about where Mitt is today..
 
Born Free said:
What I don't think can be reflected in the polls is voter turnout. There is no doubt the enthusiasm Obama carried in 08 is not there now. On the flip side the Republicans want desperately to oust Obama. Huge difference in enthusiasm between the two parties.
Click to expand...

That's exactly what the polls try to capture with their likely voter models.
 
Travis007 said:
Is this like the "Myth that your posts have validity"...?

NYT's... thats funny.. that piece of yellow journalism is a rag..
Click to expand...

What did you find wrong with the analysis from Nate Silver?
 
AdamT said:
That's exactly what the polls try to capture with their likely voter models.
Click to expand...

Understand, but answering a poll over the phone or a mail in sheet is far different than getting out of the house and actually going to vote. That is where enthusiasm plays a big part, and I believe the enthusiasm is way titled on the side of the Republicans.
 
haymarket said:
What did you find wrong with the analysis from Nate Silver?
Click to expand...

He's so hyper-partisan that even the New York Times is biased... :roll: TYT, NPR, Huffington? He's got some grounds there. But in this case, it's nonsense.
 
Last edited:
Born Free said:
Understand, but answering a poll over the phone or a mail in sheet is far different than getting out of the house and actually going to vote. That is where enthusiasm plays a big part, and I believe the enthusiasm is way titled on the side of the Republicans.
Click to expand...

I agree that there is a small enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans, but again ... that is something that the polls should reflect.
 
AliHajiSheik said:
This reads like your own mental masturbation. Do you feel better?
Click to expand...


Oh, now - that's a classic and so original to boot. "Mental Masturbation?" Who thinks in these terms? Who comes up with language like this, other than those engaging in such "masturbation" themselves?

And, since when did actual facts matter anymore in how we elect our President? The truth, if that's what's really at issue here, is the fact that Obama should be winning this election in a massive landslide. But, of course - since real facts about real performance and real integrity of the candidate really do not matter in this election, President Obama, is having to share the popular vote with a candidate for office who cannot come to grips with even his own positions for more than 15 minutes before having a national campaign director directly contradict something the candidate said previously.

So, what's new - huh? I mean, really - what's new?

You put a man out there who has both lied and flipped on so many issues, that even I've lost count. He says one thing before a crowed in the Midwest, gets on his RNC paid for Boeing 727-200 and then says something completely different to a completely different crowed in the South. He then files a northbound IFR flight plan, gets right back into that RNC comped Boeing 727-200, lands somewhere in the Northeast, drives to a Fohcks Nuewz studio and spends the next 15 minutes making five (5) denials and seven (7) contradictions about what he just said that day back in the Midwest and the Southeast, to two (2) completely different groups of people.

When you call the man on the carpet about his contradictory statements on everything from his contradictions on Foreign Policy to Education and everything else in between, he actually garners enough audacity to be righteously indignant about anyone demonstrating the temerity to question his unstable utterances during the course of his campaign.

And, that passes (in the minds of half the country) as actually being Presidential?

Let me tell you guys something and I want you to listen very, very carefully: Lying your way back and fourth across the country and pretending to be righteously indignant when asked to explain your contradictions, and then never once offering the American People a viable reason and/or justification for having done so over the course of two (2) full years, is more than ample justification for you to be considered UNFIT to hold the office of Commander In Chief. Period.

That's not a partisan statement and no sincerely honest human being can conclude as much. The entire world has witnessed this man intentionally make contradictory statements about his positions on numerous issues and yet half the country is still willing to support the man. That is nothing short of mind blowing from where I sit. You KNOW the man is lying to you, yet you STILL support his campaign. If that is not the very definition of ultra denial, then I don't know what qualifies.

I've written and demonstrated (extensively) on this forum, exactly where Mitt Romney, has been clearly contradicting himself and then never correcting his contradictions. Often times, he double and triples down on a contradiction, taking multiple flips on the exact same double-sided contradiction! He does this in plain daylight and nobody on the Right, has the courage or the backbone to at least stand-up and tell this man ENOUGH already?

Heck, folks. If I were running for President, under the exact same conditions of Romnesia, I would expect to win this thing by a landslide. PW4000 for President, should be an easy win. In fact, Anybody for President, given the sheer number of times that Romney, has told explicit lies during the course of his two (2) year campaign, should a very easy win. It does not matter whether or not the other guy has had difficulty turning the economy on a dime and returning millions of jobs overnight that were lost before he took office, when you have a candidate out there who is flat out being completely disingenuous with the American People.

There is absolutely no way that Romney, should have anything other than the 30% hard core base that votes straight party-line in any election. Romney, has not earned any of the 40% Independent vote in the country, unless those people have simply NOT been paying attention to this man's campaign and his own contradictory words.
 
I've heard that people want to vote for the "winner" and they will vote for whom ever they perceive is ahead? Are people that stupid?
 
PW4000 said:
Oh, now - that's a classic and so original to boot. "Mental Masturbation?" Who thinks in these terms? Who comes up with language like this, other than those engaging in such "masturbation" themselves?

And, since when did actual facts matter anymore in how we elect our President? The truth, if that's what's really at issue here, is the fact that Obama should be winning this election in a massive landslide. But, of course - since real facts about real performance and real integrity of the candidate really do not matter in this election, President Obama, is having to share the popular vote with a candidate for office who cannot come to grips with even his own positions for more than 15 minutes before having a national campaign director directly contradict something the candidate said previously.

So, what's new - huh? I mean, really - what's new?

You put a man out there who has both lied and flipped on so many issues, that even I've lost count. He says one thing before a crowed in the Midwest, gets on his RNC paid for Boeing 727-200 and then says something completely different to a completely different crowed in the South. He then files a northbound IFR flight plan, gets right back into that RNC comped Boeing 727-200, lands somewhere in the Northeast, drives to a Fohcks Nuewz studio and spends the next 15 minutes making five (5) denials and seven (7) contradictions about what he just said that day back in the Midwest and the Southeast, to two (2) completely different groups of people.

When you call the man on the carpet about his contradictory statements on everything from his contradictions on Foreign Policy to Education and everything else in between, he actually garners enough audacity to be righteously indignant about anyone demonstrating the temerity to question his unstable utterances during the course of his campaign.

And, that passes (in the minds of half the country) as actually being Presidential?

Let me tell you guys something and I want you to listen very, very carefully: Lying your way back and fourth across the country and pretending to be righteously indignant when asked to explain your contradictions, and then never once offering the American People a viable reason and/or justification for having done so over the course of two (2) full years, is more than ample justification for you to be considered UNFIT to hold the office of Commander In Chief. Period.

That's not a partisan statement and no sincerely honest human being can conclude as much. The entire world has witnessed this man intentionally make contradictory statements about his positions on numerous issues and yet half the country is still willing to support the man. That is nothing short of mind blowing from where I sit. You KNOW the man is lying to you, yet you STILL support his campaign. If that is not the very definition of ultra denial, then I don't know what qualifies.

I've written and demonstrated (extensively) on this forum, exactly where Mitt Romney, has been clearly contradicting himself and then never correcting his contradictions. Often times, he double and triples down on a contradiction, taking multiple flips on the exact same double-sided contradiction! He does this in plain daylight and nobody on the Right, has the courage or the backbone to at least stand-up and tell this man ENOUGH already?

Heck, folks. If I were running for President, under the exact same conditions of Romnesia, I would expect to win this thing by a landslide. PW4000 for President, should be an easy win. In fact, Anybody for President, given the sheer number of times that Romney, has told explicit lies during the course of his two (2) year campaign, should a very easy win. It does not matter whether or not the other guy has had difficulty turning the economy on a dime and returning millions of jobs overnight that were lost before he took office, when you have a candidate out there who is flat out being completely disingenuous with the American People.

There is absolutely no way that Romney, should have anything other than the 30% hard core base that votes straight party-line in any election. Romney, has not earned any of the 40% Independent vote in the country, unless those people have simply NOT been paying attention to this man's campaign and his own contradictory words.
Click to expand...

Damn, I wish it was possible to "like" a post more than once.
 
Obama's magic number in the various polls needs to be 50%, not something more than what Romney is polling at the time.

My understanding is that undecideds generally break to the challenger in very large proportions. On that basis, Obama is behind, even with polls that are ridiculously oversampling democrats and undersampling independents.


Obama's magic seems to be gone. he used to be able to rely on the shining rainbow warrior for hoep and change image created by the media and his 2008 machine and its combination with Romney as Thurston Howel/the Monopoly Guy fat cat. All that got done exploded at the first debate, and Obama is more and more perceived as a petty politician who isn't wearing any clothes, with an entire campiagn built around meaningless "shiny bauble" issues and ad hominem attacks on Romney. Meanwhile, people seem to be perceiving Romney very, very well, at least in part because the Obama version of Romney peddled in ads for 5 months was shown to have nothing to do with reality.

Oh, and the economy sucks ass and Obama has done nothing about it except make it worse. People notice that sort of thing.

Obama's gonna lose.
 
waas said:
Yeah, Obamacare doesn't go far enough. Hands down, it's a failure.
Click to expand...

There you go, vote Romney so Obamacare will be killed and a real bipartisan health care reform will be established. Dot one that was shoved down the throats of the American people.
 
CJ 2.0 said:
Obama's magic number in the various polls needs to be 50%, not something more than what Romney is polling at the time.

My understanding is that undecideds generally break to the challenger in very large proportions. On that basis, Obama is behind, even with polls that are ridiculously oversampling democrats and undersampling independents.
Click to expand...

That would be wishful thinking on your part. In fact the "incumbent rule" doesn't apply in presidential elections. Since 1968 undecideds have actually broken slightly more for the incumbent canddiate than they have for the challenger.

Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers? - NYTimes.com
 
Born Free said:
There you go, vote Romney so Obamacare will be killed and a real bipartisan health care reform will be established. Dot one that was shoved down the throats of the American people.
Click to expand...

Problem is, I want single payer heath care with emphasis on community clinics. Mitt and I have very different priorities.
 
AdamT said:
I agree that there is a small enthusiasm gap in favor of Republicans, but again ... that is something that the polls should reflect.
Click to expand...

I don't think that explains the national poll numbers.

- Romney, is getting more support from the South, than McCain/Palin got in 2008.
- Obama, is getting less support from White Men who could be considered old Reagan Democrats - mostly in the South/Southeast.
- The States that Obama turned Blue in 2008, have turned Purple or back to Red.

So, the popular vote, because of White Men, is yielding Romney, more support in the national polls.

However, once you get inside the States, especially the Swing States, you find out what's really going on. Obama, is holding a sufficient number of Women in this States, a sufficient number of the Youth and he's literally cleaning house among Hispanic/Latino voters. The hype about Senior vacating the Democratic Party and polling toward Romney, is pure pixie dust inspired MSM hype designed to boos their ratings and cause more people to tune into their "latest poll number" announcements. There is no Senior evacuation protcol, as has been reported - because that would be counter intuitive to common sense, given the drastic differentials between Romney's plan for both Social Security (Privatization) and Medicare (Vouchers), and the President's. So, unless all the Seniors have completely lost their minds, no such evacuation has occurred. However, that will not stop the CNN ratings from going up between now and November 6th.

Obama, had a ridiculously huge number of the Women. Nobody can sustain such ridiculously large margins for an eternity and Obama, has held them for quite some time. Yet, he did not need that much of a margin with Women, in order to win the election handily. He's still in the lead with Women, and will do just fine among that constituency. Obama's biggest lost this election is with White Men, who voted against McCain/Palin AND who stayed home in 2008.

However, even with that being the case, and those states like Virginia, that he turned Blue in 2008 and which will probably roll back Red, his electoral college map is still more than enough to win. Romney's Ground Game in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Florida, etc., is no where near as complete and optimized as Obama's. The Romney Camp knows this and they are trying very hard to win the PR Game just before the election. Obama, is slamming the Ground Game, in the States where he needs to win, or where he can lose but makes Romney, spend a lot of time and money in defense.

Never forget or underestimate Obama's Ground Game. That was a foolish mistake that McCain/Palin made and it appears to be echoed by the Romney Camp, although their Ground Game is a bit more sophisticated than McCain's was in 2008 - just not nearly the same scope and depth of Obama's. That is the war the Media is not showing you.

So, all this talk about Romentum, is a bunch of uninformed wishful thinking. I've already put up a thread on what will happen from now through 2024, and Obama, losing to Romney, in 2012, is not part of that scenario. I've already said that this election will end up being a much bigger win for Obama, than the Romney Campaign is trying to sell right now.

I am much more interested in knowing a lot more about the Voter Suppression and Voter Fraud instances that have been woefully under reported by the MSM this year - especially in Ohio.
 
waas said:
He's so hyper-partisan that even the New York Times is biased... :roll: TYT, NPR, Huffington? He's got some grounds there. But in this case, it's nonsense.
Click to expand...

That is a personal ad hominem attack upon an individual and says nothing about the content of the article of which apparently you are ignorant of.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom