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The myth of Romney's momentum

winston53660 said:
Hitting the Kool Aid pretty early today ain't ya?
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how old are you may I ask?... if you dont know that abotu the NYT's and who owns them then you really are clueless and how its an activist paper for Libs...
 
Travis007 said:
how old are you may I ask?...
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NO you may not.

if you dont know that abotu the NYT's and who owns them then you really are clueless and how its an activist paper for Libs...
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I probably know more about mass media than you could ever hope to. And you come off as a spoon fed juvenile punk. That is kinda fun to laugh at.
 
winston53660 said:
NO you may not.



I probably know more about mass media than you could ever hope to. And you come off as a spoon fed juvenile punk. That is kinda fun to laugh at.
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Obviously you dont.. but nice BS..
 
Obama had momentum. SIGNIFICANT momentum. Enough momentum for you to declare at the end of september that his chances of winning were 70 to 75%.

Romney then had momentum. Significant momentum. That erased pretty much all the gains Obama had gotten from his momentum.

Currently, NEITHER side has significant momentum over the other. They're in a horse race, jockeying for position, with each one gaining a bit more than the other at times. Obama is in the slight lead, but there is a difference compared to two months ago in the fact that Romney is actually at times making some quick surges forward rather than simply pacing behind a very steady Barack Obama. The difference between two months ago is that Romney is in a far better spot than previously where as Obama is kind of just still where he was.

Romney has gained his first leads in the RCP average, he's gained his first leads in the RCP non-toss up electoral count, and he has closed the gap (if not taken the league) in a number of swing states including some of the most important one.

While it's arguable to say that Romney no long has THE momentum of the campaign, I believe you're hard pressed to say Obama is the one that has it. As it stands now, this is a race to see if Romney can sprint past an Obama whose basically in free fall to the finish.
 
I don't see any validation of claims that Obama is "gaining" against Romney's "momentum" as a whole in EC tallies.

N.H. has consistently swung towards Romney since 10/9, excepting one outlier poll from UNH that had Obama up by 9 (his second biggest lead since the end of May).

Since 10/4, Romney has held a lead in Virginia, excepting 2 polls by CBS/Quinnipiac and PPP.

Florida shows Romney leading since 10/4, excepting 1 poll by Survey USA on 10/18. Romney peaked at 7, and the most recent poll shows a 5 point advantage.

Ohio keeps experiencing pretty wide variants between Obama and Romney, swinging from Obama +5 to Romney +1, from 10/4 to present, with the most recent poll showing a dead heat. Romney never held more than a 1 point lead in Ohio after 10/4.

In Wisconsin, Obama swung from an 11 point lead at the end of September to an aggregate average lead of under 3 currently. Since 10/4, his highest lead was 6 points (NBC poll) all others in margin of error.

Iowa looks similar to Ohio.

In Colorado, Romney has led in 6 of 10 polls included in the RCP aggregate since the beginning of October. He has the aggregate lead, though only marginally.

Nevada has Obama pinned to MOE leads since the beginning of October.

Michigan never really swayed, and is only listed as a toss up because Obama's lead on average dropped below 5%. The most recent poll shows a tie, and claims an MOE of less than 3%, but it's an outlier.

Pennsylvania is much the same as Michigan.
 
winston53660 said:
NO you may not.



I probably know more about mass media than you could ever hope to. And you come off as a spoon fed juvenile punk. That is kinda fun to laugh at.
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wow.. Im a spoon fed juvenile punk???.....Interesting...I was a punk rocker in the USA back in 1978.. saw the Ramones many times and the Clash, DEVO, Television, The Tubes.. along with Elvis Costello , Blondie, Talking Heads, bewteen 78 and 83 many times... as I was in NYC.. but I dont think thats what you are inferring..

who is spoon feeding me Mink Deville? Tuff Darts? Nick Lowe, Courtney Love? Ian Durry? JJ Cale?..who?
 
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Bronson said:
Oh Hey the NYT trying to create a new narrative to help Obama

What a shocker

Romney Victory Effort Raises Over $111.8 Million From Oct. 1 To Oct. 17
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Raising money for a campaign has no significance over how people will vote. The money Romney keeps getting is most likely more contributions from the same corporations and top 1% that have already given him money. Perhaps giving a breakdown of where the money is coming from would be more valid, rather than an inside post from the Romney campaign.
 
helix2048 said:
Raising money for a campaign has no significance over how people will vote. The money Romney keeps getting is most likely more contributions from the same corporations and top 1% that have already given him money. Perhaps giving a breakdown of where the money is coming from would be more valid, rather than an inside post from the Romney campaign.
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LOL don't you guys ever get tired of the evil corporations mantra? by the way, are GM and GE evil?
 
Bobcat said:
LOL don't you guys ever get tired of the evil corporations mantra? by the way, are GM and GE evil?
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GM, GE, George Soros and Warren Buffet are all exempt from the Liberal disdain, didn't you notice?
 
helix2048 said:
Raising money for a campaign has no significance over how people will vote. The money Romney keeps getting is most likely more contributions from the same corporations and top 1% that have already given him money. Perhaps giving a breakdown of where the money is coming from would be more valid, rather than an inside post from the Romney campaign.
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At this point in the election I don't think fundraising is going to effect the outcome. The swing states have been totally saturated and both campaigns still have lots of money. That said ... Pro-Obama Super PAC Outraises Romney Super PAC, Again
 
Travis007 said:
If i was a betting man Id bet those are ILLEGAL FUNDS...
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I thought only the mean GOP had super pacs, and the liberals grew money organically in a commune.
 
AdamT said:
And I would double down that you wouldn't.
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If you say left.. its right... no offense but what ever you think ,the opposite is reality..
 
Erod said:
I thought only the mean GOP had super pacs, and the liberals grew money organically in a commune.
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yes money that is made from hemp, powered by granola...
 
Travis007 said:
If you say left.. its right... no offense but what ever you think ,the opposite is reality..
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We'll see in a couple weeks, won't we?
 
I don't know that Romney's momentum has been a myth, but it is reportedly slowed to a snail's pace while Obama's has stopped. About 98% of the electorate has already made up their minds and/or voted, and the last 2% will likely not decide if they do not already have a lean (which most do) on the day before the election. It is a dead heat and will be until the end.
 
This will be a tight one.
 
Myth?

When I compare the recent stump speeches, I see one desperately trying to fire up college kids, and the other energized and confidently speaking of a real recovery to all Americans.
 
AdamT said:
It seems that the drive-by media is perpetuating a belief that Mitt Romney has the momentum in this campaign, which is a myth that is being eaten up by those on the right and even some on the left. The truth is that Romney HAD big momentum following the first debate, but that died at about the time of the VP debate and the momentum has, if anything, shifted back to President Obama. Here's what I think is going on:

* Obama had a structural lead of a couple points going into the conventions;

* The Democratic convention was more successful than the Republican convention, which resulted in a bump for Obama;

* As the convention bump was approaching its expiration date, Romney's infamous 47% video was leaked. The video release drove Romney even further in the hole;

* The effect of the conventions and video were subsiding as the first presidential debate approached;

* Romney killed the first presidential debate which essentially wiped out all of Obama's gains since the conventions;

* Biden won his debate and Obama won the second and third presidential debates, albeit not as convincingly as Romney won the first one;

* In consequence, the Romney's momentum was stopped in its tracks (it was already fading) and the polls have subsequently drifted ever so slightly towards Obama.

That brings us to the present day. Taking into consideration state and national polls, it appears that Obama has roughly a 1.5% national lead, and more importantly, he is slightly better than a 2:1 favorite to win the Electoral College. There are less than two weeks to go to election day, early voting is already under way, and there are no more debates to influence the election. The polls are either flat or moving slightly towards Obama, and he is likely to see a modest bump in the coming days as a result of the third debate.

It would not be shocking if Romney wins, but it's looking pretty good for a second Obama term.

Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped - NYTimes.com
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Once again, Adam proves that he never misses a segment of MSNBC. Yes, this is what the topic on MSNBC was last night. Your attendance record is perfect.
 
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
60.5%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.05 / share
Today's Change: +$0.08 (+1.3%)

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
40.0%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $4.00 / share
Today's Change: -$0.04 (-1%)

Gary Johnson to win 0.5% or more of the popular vote in the 2012 US Presidential election
80.0%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $8.00 / share
Today's Change: -

Just an FYI post.
 
AdamT said:
It seems that the drive-by media is perpetuating a belief that Mitt Romney has the momentum in this campaign, which is a myth that is being eaten up by those on the right and even some on the left. The truth is that Romney HAD big momentum following the first debate, but that died at about the time of the VP debate and the momentum has, if anything, shifted back to President Obama. Here's what I think is going on:

* Obama had a structural lead of a couple points going into the conventions;

* The Democratic convention was more successful than the Republican convention, which resulted in a bump for Obama;

* As the convention bump was approaching its expiration date, Romney's infamous 47% video was leaked. The video release drove Romney even further in the hole;

* The effect of the conventions and video were subsiding as the first presidential debate approached;

* Romney killed the first presidential debate which essentially wiped out all of Obama's gains since the conventions;

* Biden won his debate and Obama won the second and third presidential debates, albeit not as convincingly as Romney won the first one;

* In consequence, the Romney's momentum was stopped in its tracks (it was already fading) and the polls have subsequently drifted ever so slightly towards Obama.

That brings us to the present day. Taking into consideration state and national polls, it appears that Obama has roughly a 1.5% national lead, and more importantly, he is slightly better than a 2:1 favorite to win the Electoral College. There are less than two weeks to go to election day, early voting is already under way, and there are no more debates to influence the election. The polls are either flat or moving slightly towards Obama, and he is likely to see a modest bump in the coming days as a result of the third debate.

It would not be shocking if Romney wins, but it's looking pretty good for a second Obama term.

Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped - NYTimes.com
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This reads like your own mental masturbation. Do you feel better?
 
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