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Gallup and Rasmussen both say Obama at 46% among likely voters - Romney over 50%

poweRob said:
What's the point? If the EC is proportionally distributed by population to where the population is... why have it at all?
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For the same reasons it was implemented in the first place: it acts as a buffer to purely populist insanity. If, for some reason, people decide to vote the next Hitler into power, the EC could chose to become faithless electors and make the change. under normal circumstances the proportional allocation is superior, but having that safety valve is important, IMO.

Sorry to godwin it, but it was the best example I could think of.
 
Tucker Case said:
For the same reasons it was implemented in the first place: it acts as a buffer to purely populist insanity. If, for some reason, people decide to vote the next Hitler into power, the EC could chose to become faithless electors and make the change. under normal circumstances the proportional allocation is superior, but having that safety valve is important, IMO.

Sorry to godwin it, but it was the best example I could think of.
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Inversely, the EC could become faithless electors who put in the next Hitler as well when the people voted for Jesus. The EC is still just people who have every bit the ability to screw up as everyone else.
 
Tucker Case said:
I could see that happening. And I'd laugh my ass off at the partisan hilarity that would ensue.
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I'd be laughing too... but there would also be tears. We could sure use something definitive.
 
poweRob said:
Inversely, the EC could become faithless electors who put in the next Hitler as well when the people voted for Jesus. The EC is still just people who have every bit the ability to screw up as everyone else.
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True enough.
 
The EC insures that CA does not have a greater say in the winner whether the winner of that state wins by 1 or 3,000,000. Sucks if you are in CA, not so much if you are in Wyoming whose winner would have fewer votes than many cities in CA.

in 2008, about 65 Million people voted for Obama. If you look at the state by state populations (Population Of US States 2012) you should be able to see that CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, OH, PA. MI, GA, and NC have sufficient populations that if the majority of the people voted, they majority of them would determine the election almost every time, thereby disenfranchising the other states (though more probably it would be the majority in the top 20 states in practice). Not letting Wyoming feel like they have at least some say is not good for that thing people call "The Union".
 
We can keep watching the polls, but it is a ground-game battle now and no poll reflects that. Its just a question who actually goes to vote.

Good weather is typically good for Democrats and bad weather for Republicans. So Republicans would prefer a surprise ice storm in Ohio and a hurricane to hit Miami.
 
joko104 said:
We can keep watching the polls, but it is a ground-game battle now and no poll reflects that. Its just a question who actually goes to vote.

Good weather is typically good for Democrats and bad weather for Republicans. So Republicans would prefer a surprise ice storm in Ohio and a hurricane to hit Miami.
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Well with early voting in some states, that might matter less unless the Ice Storm Cometh Next Week.
 
living in a Swing State, my phone has Not quit ringing, from both parties, I'm so tired of it, anymore, I just tell them what they want to hear,

depending on the party calling', I've been white, black , hispanic, age 25 thru 65 also , male and female gender on the automated ones- That alone tells me polls aren't %100 per cent accurate,
 
Fisher said:
Well with early voting in some states, that might matter less unless the Ice Storm Cometh Next Week.
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Someone who does statistical modeling told me that if the leader in the national poll is up by at least 2.8%, then there is 95% confidence the popular vote and EC will align. Don't ask me to explain it. Just relaying what I was told.
 
zhak said:
living in a Swing State, my phone has Not quit ringing, from both parties, I'm so tired of it, anymore, I just tell them what they want to hear,

depending on the party calling', I've been white, black , hispanic, age 25 thru 65 also , male and female gender on the automated ones- That alone tells me polls aren't %100 per cent accurate,
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Mom, is that you? LOL. My mom likes to create characters in her head and then respond exactly opposite the way she would think that person would in real life.
 
Fisher said:
Mom, is that you? LOL. My mom likes to create characters in her head and then respond exactly opposite the way she would think that person would in real life.
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Uhh, No, I'm not your Mom, But I like the way she thinks", :) Lol
 
Tucker Case said:
I'd like to see more proportional allocation of the EC votes, but generally I'd just enjoy the oblivious partisan flip flop from 2000.
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That will kind of be fun. Except we all know that only Libs flip-flop :lamo
 
Fisher said:
Mom, is that you? LOL. My mom likes to create characters in her head and then respond exactly opposite the way she would think that person would in real life.
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If only this was the basement.....
 
Reuters and ABC also put Romney in the lead of Likely voters, but below the 50% line and only a point apart.
 
a Michegan poll puts it at 47-47 in that state.


:) Wouldn't it just be topping on the sundae if Haymarket's state voted for romney?
 
cpwill said:
Gallup has them at 51-46% with a margin of +/- 2%.


Rasmussen has them at 50-46%, but says that they are tied 48-48 in Ohio.


I'm thinking at this point, if we don't say that the advantage is moving into Romney's court, we can definitely say that we are setting up for a plausible scenario wherein Romney wins the popular vote, but loses the election.
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and while everyone had decried them as foul... they've been the most accurate polling agencies over the last 4 elections... and have been the standard of what people measure their results by... both have a sizeable lead for Romney... without counting the late breaking undecided voters...

If Romney gets FL, NC, and VA, where he leads polls, and OH and CO, which are currently breaking his way... he wins the election... There are also potential gains to be had in NV, IA, and NH, which have all drawn close...

Heck, even the latest RCP poll average in MA has Obama's lead at 15pts... well down from the 25pts it was earlier this year... and that both Obama and Kerry won it by in 2008 and 2004 respectively...
 
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