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Gallup: Romney 52 - Obama 45

JohnWOlin said:
Polling is slightly slanted in dems favor usually. At the least this will be like 2000 if Obama wins and while I don't like it, if he did win only electorally like Bush did in 2000 it would be a crock.
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It's fine. People need to embrace the Electoral College more than deride it. I would have absolutely no qualms with an Obama win through Electoral vote, even though I myself will vote for Romney.
 
JohnWOlin said:
You were dismissive so shall I be. Romney believes in magic. Go to Utah and see how many of them do too.
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Romney believes in magic? Wow! LOL...

I was curious about your reference to a dozen countries... what was that about?
 
Fiddytree said:
The odds are still against Romney. The race has become interesting over the past month, but Romney still has to be the one climbing up the hill rather than the President.
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Romney 52 - Obama 45
 
zimmer said:
Romney 52 - Obama 45
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Which targets the popular vote. The one to be more mindful in this situation is to watch the Electoral Vote. Lest we forget the other examples in our history, Zimmer?
 
I'd rather go into my last debate ahead than behind (but then again I miss the utter brilliance of someone's alleged strategy to throw the first debate so they could have a more dramatic finish).
 
zimmer said:
Romney believes in magic? Wow! LOL...

I was curious about your reference to a dozen countries... what was that about?
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Could be any number of things. I would go with his tax plan, which is revenue neutral... if you assume magical economy gains.

Or it could be the magic underpants thing I've heard of referring to mormons. Couldn't tell you what that's about.

Perhaps the idea that 47% of Americans see themselves as victims who can't be convinced to take responsibility for themselves but simultaneously unemployment is nowhere near 47%. Magic is about the only way I can reconcile those two.

He certainly is an illusionist regarding his own beliefs!

I could keep going.
 
Fiddytree said:
It's fine. People need to embrace the Electoral College more than deride it. I would have absolutely no qualms with an Obama win through Electoral vote, even though I myself will vote for Romney.
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I sir believe it to be horse ****. This is something I couldn't express more.
 
zimmer said:
Romney believes in magic? Wow! LOL...

I was curious about your reference to a dozen countries... what was that about?
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About unemployment being unusually high everywhere else as well, no matter if austerity or government help is used. If you look at the other three countries i listed however, they all used private and government but its the way they used it that made a difference to unemployment.
 
JohnWOlin said:
I sir believe it to be horse ****. This is something I couldn't express more.
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It's a valuable instrument to check other influences of popular opinion in determining the leader of a great many regions of the country, lest we see ourselves being determined by those states closer to the coasts and in urban areas. Furthermore, we have additional steps on top of the Colelge to select Presidents that likewise are not so clear-cut in terms of legitimacy when it gets in the hands of human beings, yet I still look upon those instances with satisfaction. For instance, the means through which Andrew Jackson was turned down and through which John Quincy Adams succeeded.
 
Fiddytree said:
Which targets the popular vote. The one to be more mindful in this situation is to watch the Electoral Vote. Lest we forget the other examples in our history, Zimmer?
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Yes... like the press calling the election before the west coast polls were closed, and suppressing the military vote.
I haven't forgotten.
 
zimmer said:
Yes... like the press calling the election before the west coast polls were closed, and suppressing the military vote.
I haven't forgotten.
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Not quite what I was talking about, but okay.
 
zimmer said:
Yes... like the press calling the election before the west coast polls were closed, and suppressing the military vote.
I haven't forgotten.
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So some idiots didn't vote because it was "over." And it's the media's fault? Does the media control your actions? I usually don't listen to them.
 
zimmer said:
Yes... like the press calling the election before the west coast polls were closed, and suppressing the military vote.
I haven't forgotten.
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What about Republicans robo-calling Democrat voters and telling them it's over?
Or throwing out registrations from Democrats?
Or implementing tougher ID laws in states where coincidentally DMV services have been slashed in "blue" districts?
 
Deuce said:
What about Republicans robo-calling Democrat voters and telling them it's over?
Or throwing out registrations from Democrats?
Or implementing tougher ID laws in states where coincidentally DMV services have been slashed in "blue" districts?
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... and cutting early voting, and conning people out of their mail-in ballots.
 
What I find hilarious about the Gallup poll is their sample size. The poll is based on 2,700 people. The number of people who voted in the 2008 election was 132,653,958. I doubt the accuracy of a poll that only samples 0.0000203% of the voting population.
 
helix2048 said:
What I find hilarious about the Gallup poll is their sample size. The poll is based on 2,700 people. The number of people who voted in the 2008 election was 132,653,958. I doubt the accuracy of a poll that only samples 0.0000203% of the voting population.
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Well, I don't necessarily like polls that much either, but are you really expecting us to believe that if the numbers were reversed, and say I had made that point, that you and other liberals wouldn't be all over the board saying that I was just whining because I didn't understand polling? Come on....Take a look back at the threads just a few weeks ago talking about demo oversampling....Then come back k?
 
j-mac said:
Well, I don't necessarily like polls that much either, but are you really expecting us to believe that if the numbers were reversed, and say I had made that point, that you and other liberals wouldn't be all over the board saying that I was just whining because I didn't understand polling? Come on....Take a look back at the threads just a few weeks ago talking about demo oversampling....Then come back k?
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I think you missed my point. Regardless of which way the poll is leaning, it doesn't make a difference. Only on election day will we really know how the American public is going to vote.
 
helix2048 said:
I think you missed my point. Regardless of which way the poll is leaning, it doesn't make a difference. Only on election day will we really know how the American public is going to vote.
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But it does make a difference. We can keep track of where things are headed. It's how campaigns gauge where to put resources, when to pull out, and what messages to hit.
 
zimmer said:
Obama's Debate Bump.
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And when gallup isn't the poll posting up numbers that buck the trend but you like... you'll run back to rassumussen and cry that Gallup is dem biased. lol
 
MaggieD said:
I think the point of the OP is that Obama didn't get any appreciable bump from his performance in the last debate. I think it's going to be a horse race; think Obama's going to win; and think he may just lose the popular vote. I'd be happy to see that...that may be as close as win as conservatives get this cycle. But it will increase my faith in the American people.
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538 says otherwise...
 
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helix2048 said:
What I find hilarious about the Gallup poll is their sample size. The poll is based on 2,700 people. The number of people who voted in the 2008 election was 132,653,958. I doubt the accuracy of a poll that only samples 0.0000203% of the voting population.
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Gallup actually uses a bigger sample than most, if not all, of the pollsters. The sample size just relates to the margin of error.

That said, Gallup has clearly become an outlier since they switched to likely voter. It suggests that there is something screwed up in the way they are determining likely voters.
 
helix2048 said:
What I find hilarious about the Gallup poll is their sample size. The poll is based on 2,700 people. The number of people who voted in the 2008 election was 132,653,958. I doubt the accuracy of a poll that only samples 0.0000203% of the voting population.
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Seems odd but it does work when done properly.
 
helix2048 said:
I think you missed my point. Regardless of which way the poll is leaning, it doesn't make a difference. Only on election day will we really know how the American public is going to vote.
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On that point we can agree.
 
AdamT said:
Gallup actually uses a bigger sample than most, if not all, of the pollsters. The sample size just relates to the margin of error.

That said, Gallup has clearly become an outlier since they switched to likely voter. It suggests that there is something screwed up in the way they are determining likely voters.
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Likely voter models are proven more reliable than registered voter models.
 
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