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RCP Electoral Map

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I came up with 273-265 Romney on my SWAG
 
I'd say Obama 290-Romney 248 if the election was today. Obama takes Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Romney takes Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
 
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Anyway, I think it's going to be 280-258 Obama. With him taking Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, NH. I think Romney will take Florida, NC, Virginia, and I'm feeling that Wisconsin may fall his way as well.
 
Okay, I think I've decided it will be....

Obama/Biden = 266
Romney/Ryan = 272
 
Obama will win MI, CO and OH, but not WI PA FL VA IMHO
 
The thing i find funny is RealClearPolitics doesn't offer up percent leads or votes to show how they came to there conclusion. Look at Huffingtonpost they give a margin of lead and a percent chance representing there confidence in calling a state correctly.

For example Huffingtonpost says Obama ahead 49.1% to 44.4% in PA and a 99% confidence that the number is accurate. They also site that they are currently tracking 55 polls and it also tells you when the last update for that state came which was 2 days ago.

Now if we look at RealClearPolitics view on PA it has the state as a tossup right now but when you click on the state and get the percent they offer the practically the same margin of lead 49.7 to 44.7 for Obama. So 5 points on one source is a lead and on another its considered a toss up.

I am going to put together one myself like suggested and see what i come up with. I just find it funny how i looked at roughly 15 different Electoral Maps and all but 2 had Obama with a lead and the 2 that didn't offered the same percent lead or very close that the other 2 sites are calling toss ups. This can be very misleading to people looking for accurate sorces.
 
Anagram said:
I'd say Obama 290-Romney 248 if the election was today. Obama takes Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Romney takes Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
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That would be close to my assessment. I do think CO, NH and VA could go either way.
 
Fisher said:
Obama will win MI, CO and OH, but not WI PA FL VA IMHO
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By what logic does Romney win PA but not OH? PA is much bluer than OH. I suppose the remnants of the voter suppression exercise in PA could keep enough people home to make it plausible, but its highly unlikely. PA is to the republicans what Lucy and a football are to Charlie Brown.
 
upsideguy said:
That would be close to my assessment. I do think CO, NH and VA could go either way.
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Definitely. Iowa and Ohio too, I think. But I would put Obama as a tiny favorite in CO, NH, OH, and IA, and Romney as a small favorite in VA.
 
upsideguy said:
By what logic does Romney win PA but not OH. PA is bluer than OH. PA is to the republicans what Lucy and a football are to Charlie Brown.
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If there's a late shift in the race I could see it. Obama has a huge lead in Ohio early voters. Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting, so if something huge happens on the last weekend, it could be possible.
 
Ryan25 said:
The thing i find funny is RealClearPolitics doesn't offer up percent leads or votes to show how they came to there conclusion. Look at Huffingtonpost they give a margin of lead and a percent chance representing there confidence in calling a state correctly.

For example Huffingtonpost says Obama ahead 49.1% to 44.4% in PA and a 99% confidence that the number is accurate. They also site that they are currently tracking 55 polls and it also tells you when the last update for that state came which was 2 days ago.

Now if we look at RealClearPolitics view on PA it has the state as a tossup right now but when you click on the state and get the percent they offer the practically the same margin of lead 49.7 to 44.7 for Obama. So 5 points on one source is a lead and on another its considered a toss up.

I am going to put together one myself like suggested and see what i come up with. I just find it funny how i looked at roughly 15 different Electoral Maps and all but 2 had Obama with a lead and the 2 that didn't offered the same percent lead or very close that the other 2 sites are calling toss ups. This can be very misleading to people looking for accurate sorces.
Click to expand...

You can click on each state to see the underlying polls. There should be no question how RCP draws its assessment.
 
upsideguy said:
You can click on each state to see the underlying polls. There should be no question how RCP draws its assessment.
Click to expand...

I see that now, huffington you just hover over the state and it gives you the total but i did go back and check that and saw that the numbers matched but the way of calling a state differs like i said later in the post. 5% on one site is a lead and on another is a toss up.
 
So i put together my own chart and ended up with Obama taking 286-252, i ended up calling Florida and and Virginia in Romney's favor while calling Colorado and New Hampshire in Obama's favor. All of those 4 are exasperated by no more then 1.5% on every map i have looked at. So lets say Romney manages to take all 4 of those states that would change my totals to 273-265. Basically there is no clean cut winner like when Obama won big last time around 365-173.
 
I gave Obama Nevada but I still believe that Romney could have a chance there talking about immigration. He just needs to downplay the kicking people out part and play up the more work Visa's part.
 
I had 300 to 231 Romney, Giving PA,VA,NC, FL, NH, and IA to Romney I think...Optimistic, but hey I am a glass half full kind of guy...heh, heh....
 
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