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Mitt Romney pushes into Pennsylvania and New Hampshire

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Mitt Romney pushes into battle ground states of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire weeks before presidential election - NY Daily News

Anxious to find the right combination of states to win the Electoral College, Mitt Romney’s campaign pushed Saturday into battlegrounds it had largely avoided.

The Republicans forged into the swing states of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which the GOP had previously appeared resigned to ceding to President Obama.
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It seems like a good idea to me. Even with neither side spending resources in Pennsylvania, the gap closed from a double digit Obama lead before the debate to about a 5-6 point Obama lead now. Romney might not be able to actually be able to close the gap here, but it's a low risk, high reward strategy. If he misses out, it's only three weeks worth of resources, but if he wins Pennsylvania, he pretty much wins the election.
 
Anagram said:
Mitt Romney pushes into battle ground states of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire weeks before presidential election - NY Daily News


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It seems like a good idea to me. Even with neither side spending resources in Pennsylvania, the gap closed from a double digit Obama lead before the debate to about a 5-6 point Obama lead now. Romney might not be able to actually be able to close the gap here, but it's a low risk, high reward strategy. If he misses out, it's only three weeks worth of resources, but if he wins Pennsylvania, he pretty much wins the election.
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I'm not so sure about this, but it would make it a much closer race.
 
Your Star said:
I'm not so sure about this, but it would make it a much closer race.
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It's possible for Obama to win without Pennsylvania, but he'd have to win Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Wisconsin. He'd have almost no margin for error in any case.
 
Anagram said:
It's possible for Obama to win without Pennsylvania, but he'd have to win Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Wisconsin. He'd have almost no margin for error in any case.
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He could also replace Penn with Florida, win Ohio, and Michigan and he would only need 1 small state(Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, etc) to win. Granted Florida looks like it's leaning towards Romney, but it's not a stretch that he could win Florida.
 
Isn't it Ohio the one that every Presidential election year they say they HAVE to win?
 
Your Star said:
He could also replace Penn with Florida, win Ohio, and Michigan and he would only need 1 small state(Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, etc) to win. Granted Florida looks like it's leaning towards Romney, but it's not a stretch that he could win Florida.
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It's not too much of a stretch that he could win Florida if he was having a good election, but I don't see it as very likely that he wins Florida in an election where he loses Pennsylvania.
 
Anagram said:
It's not too much of a stretch that he could win Florida if he was having a good election, but I don't see it as very likely that he wins Florida in an election where he loses Pennsylvania.
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I don't get this reasoning, Pennsylvania and Florida are two different states toss up states for that matter, in the same time zone,(so no early reports are going to sway voters from/to voting). So I fail to see how Romney winning in Penn means that Obama can't win Florida.
 
Your Star said:
I don't get this reasoning, Pennsylvania and Florida are two different states toss up states for that matter, in the same time zone,(so no early reports are going to sway voters from/to voting). So I fail to see how Romney winning in Penn means that Obama can't win Florida.
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Because usually there is a national trend. If Obama's having a good night he might win Florida, but he isn't going to lose Pennsylvania and vice versa. Pennsylvania is a few points more Democratic than the national average, and Florida is a few points more Republican. For some closer states like Ohio and Pennsylvania or Colorado and Pennsylvania I could see some situations where Obama could lose Pennsylvania and still win the other state, because even though Pennsylvania is more Democratic than either of them the difference is small. But I think Florida and Pennsylvania are too far apart ideologically to vote Democrat and Republican respectively in the same election.
 
Anagram said:
It's not too much of a stretch that he could win Florida if he was having a good election, but I don't see it as very likely that he wins Florida in an election where he loses Pennsylvania.
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It's probably also the case that he doesn't win PA unless he's already got Ohio.
 
Anagram said:
Because usually there is a national trend. If Obama's having a good night he might win Florida, but he isn't going to lose Pennsylvania and vice versa. Pennsylvania is a few points more Democratic than the national average, and Florida is a few points more Republican. For some closer states like Ohio and Pennsylvania or Colorado and Pennsylvania I could see some situations where Obama could lose Pennsylvania and still win the other state, because even though Pennsylvania is more Democratic than either of them the difference is small. But I think Florida and Pennsylvania are too far apart ideologically to vote Democrat and Republican respectively in the same election.
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I still don't see that, they're two different states, with two different sets of people, I don't see the logic in that.
 
AdamT said:
It's probably also the case that he doesn't win PA unless he's already got Ohio.
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I would've thought that, but I think early voting helps Obama in Ohio. He has something like a 40 point lead in people who've already voted there. If there is a last second shift, it could be possible, though not likely, that he could win Ohio and lose Pennsylvania.
 
Your Star said:
I still don't see that, they're two different states, with two different sets of people, I don't see the logic in that.
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It's how it usually works though. There's a national trend that affects the whole country. There of course is some variance from state to state, but it usually isn't big enough to make a slightly Democratic state vote Republican and a slightly Republican state vote Democrat.
 
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