In Ohio

Gravis Marketing Polls and Market Research : Gravis Ohio Poll Shows...

gravis this morning: tie

sample: D+9

romney leads independents by 19, trails women by 4

barack, keep bashing those binders

it's better than big bird

romney this morning in florida: the incredible shrinking campaign---in times like these

gravis: I's disapprove of obama's handling of economy by 27, 31-58

right track/wrong track, I's: 30-58

18% of sample is youth

columbus dispatch reports this morning youth enthusiasm is down, pretty far down, as a matter of fact

Millennials less enthusiastic about Obama this election | The Columbus Dispatch

pew says youth enthusiasm is down 14% since 08, gallup says -20

gallup says obama is winning youth, 55 to 34---he took 66% in 08 and needs to replicate that

he's getting a significantly skinnier slice of a sizably slimmed down segment

53% of gravis' sample are women

fox yesterday: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...-poll-results-support-for-obama-dips-in-ohio/

obama leads the buckeyes by 3, sample is D+8

R's enjoy 15% enthusiasm edge

romney leads I's by 24, 52 to 28

leads catholics (21% of the state) by 4

I's on the economy: romney +26

I's on foreign policy: romney +13

fox counts only 20% of ohioans as I

ohio I's on the deficit: romney +29

on taxes: +28

on medicare: +14

the war on women and the scaring of seniors don't seem to be working

I's, asked if obama policies helped or hurt: hurt by 23

personal favorables, according to I's: obama -12, romney +25

ohio independents don't like anything about obama, it appears

if you asked them about the clothes he wore, they'd probably disapprove

governor kasich's job approval statewide is 45-33

among I's, it's 54-25

I's, asked if obama or kasich deserved more credit for OH's 7.0 UE, credited the gub, 54-20

all ohioans answered, 45-35

in the candy crowley debate, vultures circling, obama scored on points---which makes many wanna puke

while romney ran away with economic hope, 65-34 per cbs, 48-30 via cnn

Polls: Romney Loses Overall but Wins on Economy

that's what ohio's independents are expressing

rcp's catalog of polls out of ohio since the disaster in denver:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

gravis tie, D+9/fox -3, D+8/rasmussen -1, no sample/susa -3, no sample/ppp -5, D+4/nbc -6, D+11/arg +1, D+9/cnn -4, D+2/waa +1, D+4

gravis has romney leading ohio I's by 19, fox by 24, susa by 8, ppp 5, arg 20, cnn -4, and rasmussen, waa and nbc don't say

more revealing than surveys, however, are votes: Republicans point to early vote gains in Ohio – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

obama won OH's earlies and absentees in 08, 42 to 22 (why is fox sampling only 20% I?)

today, he's ahead in ohio, 36 to 29, a thirteen point swing

republicans have beat dems, in addition, each of the last 12 days among earlies and absentees

in cuyahoga/cleveland, R's are only 12% of the vote---they're 22% of early risers

in franklin/columbus, college country, 16.5% of the public is casting 28.6% of the already's

similar trends are seen in hamilton/cincy in the republican southwest and lucas/toledo, home of auto parts

early and absentee voting NET is down 50% in ohio over 08, the president's peeling portion of a depleted pie

pretty small sample on the Gravis poll

national journal, thursday:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama's team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has "significant leads" in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama's position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama's leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

Click to expand...

The Four Ls and Four States: What's Next in the Obama-Romney Duel - NationalJournal.com

Fisher said:

pretty small sample on the Gravis poll

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Prof cherry picking an unreliable pollster with a noted Republican bias.

ppp, this afternoon, ohio: obama +1

sample: D+8, women 54%, youth 15%

romney leads I's by 7

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1020.pdf

rcp's VA: rasmussen, romney +3, no sample/arg, romney +1, D+5/nbc, romney +1, D+12/cbs, obama +5, D+3

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

florida: waa, romney +3, R+5/rasmussen, romney +5, no sample/fox, romney +3, D+8/susa, obama +1, no sample/cnn, romney +1, D+0/gravis, romney +1, D+2/ppp, romney +1, D+4/md, romney +7, by state registration/arg, romney +3, D+3/nbc obama +1, D+4

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

NC: rasmussen, romney +6, no sample/ppp, romney +2, D+9/gravis, romney +9, D+10

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama

ppp, this morning, romney +1 in FL, trails I's by one, leads I's on economy by 15, trails women by 5, leads FL's unique hispanic community by 5, D and R samples not available

Obama, Romney in virtual dead heat in Florida, WPTV, Scripps poll shows

public policy polling is a dem outfit from NC

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

I'm a rather newbie to figuring out this polling stuff. I can see that all of you are pretty good at it. I always thought of NBC as really, really liberal. They are showing a tie this morning. Is that an interesting fact or a non-issue?

melons said:

I'm a rather newbie to figuring out this polling stuff. I can see that all of you are pretty good at it. I always thought of NBC as really, really liberal. They are showing a tie this morning. Is that an interesting fact or a non-issue?

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You're talking about the NBC/WSJ poll? If so, conservatives consider NBC to have a liberal lean, whereas I think everyone pretty much agrees that the WSJ has a conservative lean. I think their polls are pretty mainstream. The polling averages have the race in a statistical tie nationally. Obama has a slight advantage in the electoral map.

AdamT said:

You're talking about the NBC/WSJ poll? If so, conservatives consider NBC to have a liberal lean, whereas I think everyone pretty much agrees that the WSJ has a conservative lean. I think their polls are pretty mainstream. The polling averages have the race in a statistical tie nationally. Obama has a slight advantage in the electoral map.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the explanation.

Is that an interesting fact or a non-issue?

Click to expand...

thank you, i don't know any more about it than anyone else

i do know that nbc's latest sampling out of ohio is D+11, out of florida D+4, and D+8 in NC

this morning's national poll showing the candidates tied reveals none of its internals, david gregory says the crosstabs will be published at 3:30 eastern

NBC/WSJ poll: Presidential contest now tied - First Read

rasmussen, for example, never exposes his necromancy, rasmussen is always a completely black box

gallup is also pretty private about what it's doing, i don't recall ever seeing america's still most prestigious pollster publishing his samples

rcp moved NC this week, giving romney his first electoral college lead

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

per plouffe, via the national journal, don't be surprised to see florida and virginia move soon

it's gonna come down to ohio

if you really want to know who's most likely to win the white house in 2 weeks, read the op again, closely, it's a pretty comprehensive summing up

ie, the numbers speak for themselves

stay up

it's all about momentum---watch florida and virginia and the earlies and absentees in ohio

Romney has a slight edge in the popular vote - that spells absolute disaster for Obama, given the notion that some states are allegedly and overwhelmingly democrat in nature and we use electoral votes to decide the outcome of the election.

Besides, if Republicans take the Senate (they will certainly hold the House) weather Obama wins or loses really wont matter, considering he wont be able to do much of anything with a republican congress. What's he going to do? veto every bill that's passed by republicans that lands on his desk while circumventing the democratic process? Well to be honest I wouldn't be shocked if he did - after all Obama is a tyrant.

interesting developments in the race for the house, via the elite national journal:

For Democrats, It's Not 2008 Any More - NationalJournal.com

in a nutshell, the big wins (up to 5 seats) the party was expecting to come out of the draconian remap done by springfield dems in 2010 simply don't appear to be happening

republicans walsh, biggert, dold and schilling, targeted like crosshairs on some sarah palin website, are each leading narrowly in their seriously endangered districts

indeed, reprobates are looking at an actual pickup in sprawling IL12 on the southwest border with missouri, jason plummer is currently ahead of democrat bill enyart by 2 in the race for the open seat

similar trends are occurring in CA, notes the journal

the radical remap out here on the left coast was sposed to yield ms pelosi some 4 or 5 additions

but, like lincoln land, it aint panning out

jeff denham, ms mack bono, dan lungren and brian bilbray are so far faring pretty well, worries the charlie cooks, et al, at the journal

on the other hand, lois capps is vulnerable in san luis obispo

this week, it was reported than ms capps failed to disclose a half mil of income

Capps Failed to Report Over $500K The Santa Barbara Independent

my state has been for a generation so gently gerrymandered that only one house seat one time switched parties in the last ten years---CA9, 2006, when richard pombo, republican, was defeated by 6 points by mathematician jerry mcnerney, the current occupant of CA9

CA9 is my home district, for what it's worth, we're out here on the delta, what's known around here as the east bay

young ricky gill, a rhino, is challenging the math major, we've been bombarded by gill ads for months

just west of us in walnut creek, john garamendi is not entirely safe

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for the House

the dccc, worries the cooks, is also giving up on PA8 in the philly suburbs and NJ3, cherry hill, just across the delaware from brotherly love

in short, dem hopes of major gains in IL and CA appear to be falling thru

meanwhile, the masterpiece map produced by the knuckle draggers and neanderthals who run NC is exceeding expectations

ask incumbent dems brad miller, larry kissell, mike mcintyre and retiring leadership aspirant heath shuler, former qb of the washington redskins

republicans are also looking to grab the last white dem in the south, georgia's john barrow, as well as the lone remaining democrat house seats in oklahoma and utah

there are also 4 ny dems on rcp's, if not charlie cook's, radar---kathy hochul in buffalo, upstate's bill owens (in the dede scozzafava seat), louise slaughter in rochester, and tim bishop in east longuh island/the hamptons

it's all pretty predictable and status quo---except for the surprising dem disappointments in IL and CA as well as the extreme reversal looming in NC

fyi