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Why Do The Gallup Poll's Likely Voter Results Differ From The Rest?

lpast

lpast

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The already controversial Gallup Daily Poll raised even more eyebrows on Thursday with the release of daily tracking results showing Republican nominee Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by 7 percentage points (52 to 45 percent) among likely voters nationwide. The latest Gallup result was by far the most favorable to Romney among national polls released over the past week. Nine other organizations using a wide variety of different methodologies showed results ranging from a 4 percentage point lead for Romney lead to a 3 point advantage for Obama.



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Why Do The Gallup Poll's Likely Voter Results Differ From The Rest?

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Nate Silver has the explanation over at the Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com site.

Basically it is far from the first time Gallup at the run up to the election have these kind of results and they are by far the worst performer in the run up to elections. The shift happens when Gallup goes from registered voters to a likely voter model a month or so before the election.
 
PeteEU said:
Nate Silver has the explanation over at the Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com site.

Basically it is far from the first time Gallup at the run up to the election have these kind of results and they are by far the worst performer in the run up to elections. The shift happens when Gallup goes from registered voters to a likely voter model a month or so before the election.
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A couple of weeks ago on Drudge report and other Right wing sites along with Mitt Romneys campaign were attacking Gallup saying the Obama campaign was influencing them to skew the numbers in his favor...funny how suddenly all the right wing critics are now defending the Gallup Results tooth and nail...LMAO....ahh the silly season is upon us
 
lpast said:
A couple of weeks ago on Drudge report and other Right wing sites along with Mitt Romneys campaign were attacking Gallup saying the Obama campaign was influencing them to skew the numbers in his favor...funny how suddenly all the right wing critics are now defending the Gallup Results tooth and nail...LMAO....ahh the silly season is upon us
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Yep, and if you noticed, they not talking much about the state polls or of Rasmussen, who is flipping around tie to Obama ahead back to tie to Romney ahead. The only poll that is wayyyyyy out of match with the rest, something not even Rasmussen has been (only slightly) is Gallup, and just after they officially changed their methodology.

In the end, national polling means squat.. state polls means everything and only the poll on election day is the important one. And if we look at state polls, the road to victory for Romney is very long, and for Obama it is very short.
 
PeteEU said:
Yep, and if you noticed, they not talking much about the state polls or of Rasmussen, who is flipping around tie to Obama ahead back to tie to Romney ahead. The only poll that is wayyyyyy out of match with the rest, something not even Rasmussen has been (only slightly) is Gallup, and just after they officially changed their methodology.

In the end, national polling means squat.. state polls means everything and only the poll on election day is the important one. And if we look at state polls, the road to victory for Romney is very long, and for Obama it is very short.
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Well Pete...I have no idea which poll is right or wrong...or who is ahead or behind to be honest. What I do know is that I said all along from months ago...that the Debates will mean more than anything else in the campaign...and Obama admittedly flopped badly on the first debate..which is the most lasting impression of the 3...
 
lpast said:
A couple of weeks ago on Drudge report and other Right wing sites along with Mitt Romneys campaign were attacking Gallup saying the Obama campaign was influencing them to skew the numbers in his favor...funny how suddenly all the right wing critics are now defending the Gallup Results tooth and nail...LMAO....ahh the silly season is upon us
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And look who's complaining now.......YOU.
 
The reason the poll is so different may be one of a few things.

First it could be an anomoly where their data was skewed by bad luck. It could also be the question they are asking that makes the difference. They might have asked a question like are you more likely to vote romney than before. That sort of question doesn't actually measure a yes or no it measures a point a person may be at on a feeling scale and that could alter the results. Like if they asked a person who was going to vote for Obama if they liked remney more now that they heard more from him the person could say yes to both even though he is not going to vote for romney.


This is why polls are so inaccurate. You would need a large number of polls asking the same questions in the same way to get consistant results, and this is why polling is crapola. You can get some information from it, but there are a lot of variables that would interfere with the results.
 
I'll say it again, polls are manipulation and fraught with error. I just can't get too excited about polls
 
tererun said:
The reason the poll is so different may be one of a few things.

First it could be an anomoly where their data was skewed by bad luck. It could also be the question they are asking that makes the difference. They might have asked a question like are you more likely to vote romney than before. That sort of question doesn't actually measure a yes or no it measures a point a person may be at on a feeling scale and that could alter the results. Like if they asked a person who was going to vote for Obama if they liked remney more now that they heard more from him the person could say yes to both even though he is not going to vote for romney.


This is why polls are so inaccurate. You would need a large number of polls asking the same questions in the same way to get consistant results, and this is why polling is crapola. You can get some information from it, but there are a lot of variables that would interfere with the results.
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Or...it could be that voters prefer a candidate with a background of problem solving vs a class warfare, finger pointing, narcissistic, community organizer.
 
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