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Romney opens up 7-point lead over Obama!

I agree, the election will come down to a few counties in a couple of states. But the trends in the swing states are all moving towards Romney at the moment.

I am not sure Ohio is and that is the HUGE problem that Obama is trying to distract him from by making him put tons of money in FL to hold his lead there.
 
Romney 52, Obama 45. I know you dream of another 4 years of socialist utopia under obama, but the majority of americans do not want that. The more they see of the real candidates, the more they become pro-Romney and anti-Obama.

Why would anyone in his right mind want 4 more years like the last 4? and before you start screaming ---Bush did it. The last 4 years belong to obama and all the economic indicators are worse than when he took over.

Oh please, NOBODY has seen the real Romney.
 
Do me a favor... go to that link you provided, and on that interactive map there, click on Michigan... then click on pennsylvania... then try to come up with a reason that they are grey and not blue.

Because RCP rates all races 5% and less as tossups.
 
Right, they will get Acorn out there to buy votes, register dead people, and stuff the ballot boxes with fraudulent absentee ballots.

Something like that but it be more like "If you don't getcha butt out to the polls, that cracker gonna take your check away."
 
I am not sure Ohio is and that is the HUGE problem that Obama is trying to distract him from by making him put tons of money in FL to hold his lead there.

So far, Obama's held up in Ohio better than other states like Virginia and Florida. Without Ohio and Michigan and Wisconsin, neither of which Romney has led a poll in two months, his path to 270 is pretty narrow. Pennsylvania's had some interesting momentum shift in the past week without any advertising by either candidate. I'm not sure it'd be enough to win it, but perhaps a three week advertising blitz would be worth it for Romney.
 
The national polls do not matter, it is only the state by state electorial vote count. There are few votes among uncommitted voters still to be had. People in swing states are becoming politics burned-out. Romney is having a tough time breaking past Obama in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

This election is going to be decided most likely by which side does better at the grassroots getting their voters to the polls. Expect transport vans at retirement homes, union halls and fundamentalist churches. This could go nuts on election day in Ohio. No polls can reflect that in a close election.

This election isn't over by any means. Either side claiming victory now is just partisan puffery.
 
Because RCP rates all races 5% and less as tossups.

makes sense.. fine threshold... Arizona 5.3% North Carolina 5.6% Both pink for romney.
 
So far, Obama's held up in Ohio better than other states like Virginia and Florida. Without Ohio and Michigan and Wisconsin, neither of which Romney has led a poll in two months, his path to 270 is pretty narrow. Pennsylvania's had some interesting momentum shift in the past week without any advertising by either candidate. I'm not sure it'd be enough to win it, but perhaps a three week advertising blitz would be worth it for Romney.

I am actually shocked that Romney has been able to turn Florida with Ryan on the ticket. Virginia has always been a longshot for Obama IMHO unless he could get out massive turnout like in 2008 which I have always doubted--even the democrats in that state trend to the fiscal conservative side. I think Obama has surrendered VA since has gone down to rounding up a few Romney hating Massachusetts mayors to tour the state on his behalf. I am not sure Romney can win Ohio at this point. I'd probably put most of my money into the other states and just try a Hail Mary in Ohio the last week of the campaign with tons of money and appearances. I am not sure how much money the PACS have left to lobby on Romney's behalf. I don't think we will have a clear winner until Wednesday after the election. It is going to be a nail-biter.
 
Gallup is becoming an outlier for some reason. All the other recent polls show a range of +2 for Romney to +3 for Obama.

2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama

I'll be curious to see Nate Silver's take on this.
After getting sued by the Justic Departmemnt they caved and adopted the methodology changes that Axelrod "suggested". And it's been all downhill for Obama ever since. lol
******************************************************************************************
In a busy week in which Gallup began reporting polling results among voters deemed most likely to vote, Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport also announced a series of updates and modifications to the firm's methodology, including a significant boost in the number of survey calls to cell phones.
That said, the recent methodological changes appear to have increased the percentage of non-white respondents in Gallup's weighted samples of adults, as noted by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz in a HuffPost blog item posted earlier Wednesday.

Gallup Poll Reveals Changes To Its Survey Methodology
 
Do me a favor... go to that link you provided, and on that interactive map there, click on Michigan... then click on pennsylvania... then try to come up with a reason that they are grey and not blue.

Because Obama's not above a 5.0 RCP average in either state.

Happy to be of help.

I believe RCP does 0-5 Toss up...5.1 to 10 Leans....10.1+ Likely
 
So far, Obama's held up in Ohio better than other states like Virginia and Florida. Without Ohio and Michigan and Wisconsin, neither of which Romney has led a poll in two months, his path to 270 is pretty narrow. Pennsylvania's had some interesting momentum shift in the past week without any advertising by either candidate. I'm not sure it'd be enough to win it, but perhaps a three week advertising blitz would be worth it for Romney.

Lets say as it stands Romney takes Florida and the two that he's within 1 point striking distance, Virginia and New Hampshire

He'd need to either take Wisconsin (Down by 2) or Ohio (Down by 2.4) as his only two relatively plausible ones currently in the polls.

Alternatively...if he can take Ohio he'd need any two out of Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin, all of which are under +2.5 for Obama.

It's definitely a tough route.
 
Lets say as it stands Romney takes Florida and the two that he's within 1 point striking distance, Virginia and New Hampshire

He'd need to either take Wisconsin (Down by 2) or Ohio (Down by 2.4) as his only two relatively plausible ones currently in the polls.

Alternatively...if he can take Ohio he'd need any two out of Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin, all of which are under +2.5 for Obama.

It's definitely a tough route.

I see Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia as good targets for Romney. I'm just not seeing the breakthrough he needs in Wisconsin and Ohio that he needs despite his momentum and heavy advertising in those states. That's why I think maybe an untapped market with many electoral votes like Pennsylvania might be a good state to allocate some resources for the last three weeks.
 
Nate Silver just weighed in on Gallup's recent polling. First he goes into a lengthy description of how Gallup's daily tracking poll fits into his forecast model and then he discusses Gallup's historical accuracy -- particularly when it's polls diverge significantly from the averages. Bottom line is that Gallup has a pretty bad record when it strikes out on its own.

Gallup vs. the World - NYTimes.com

Doesn't mean they're wrong this time, but food for thought.
 
I am actually shocked that Romney has been able to turn Florida with Ryan on the ticket. Virginia has always been a longshot for Obama IMHO unless he could get out massive turnout like in 2008 which I have always doubted--even the democrats in that state trend to the fiscal conservative side. I think Obama has surrendered VA since has gone down to rounding up a few Romney hating Massachusetts mayors to tour the state on his behalf. I am not sure Romney can win Ohio at this point. I'd probably put most of my money into the other states and just try a Hail Mary in Ohio the last week of the campaign with tons of money and appearances. I am not sure how much money the PACS have left to lobby on Romney's behalf. I don't think we will have a clear winner until Wednesday after the election. It is going to be a nail-biter.

With Democrat publications having Hate-Mormon's covers and stories and the constant sidebar sneers and attacks at Romney for being a Morman, combined with incessant raging by Obama, Democrats and the media against Wall Street, all corporations, and all businesses and individuals with an income of $250,000 or more - money is raining now into pro-Romney PACs by the tens and hundreds of millions with $2, $5, $8 and $10 MILLION dollar individual contributions.

Given all the hatred expressed by Democrats and Obama, it is predictable increasingly the hatred is returned.
 
I've seen Mormon hate literature coming from the right too. I think Americans for Prosperity have been impressive in their targeted advertising, but I feel their reach waning.
 
Not true: Reuters/Ipsos has Obama up 3%.

Any poll that shows a negative for Romney on Libya is full of ****. I immediately don't trust it, Romney had nothing to do with Libya.
 
The national polls do not matter, it is only the state by state electorial vote count. There are few votes among uncommitted voters still to be had. People in swing states are becoming politics burned-out. Romney is having a tough time breaking past Obama in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

This election is going to be decided most likely by which side does better at the grassroots getting their voters to the polls. Expect transport vans at retirement homes, union halls and fundamentalist churches. This could go nuts on election day in Ohio. No polls can reflect that in a close election.

This election isn't over by any means. Either side claiming victory now is just partisan puffery.

The national polls matter more than the state polls probably. The electoral math works out that way, it is very unlikely that either candidate can win by 1% or more of the popular vote and not win the electoral vote. If the election is extremely close then the electoral and popular votes could go opposite ways. However if Romney is really ahead by ~7% he will win the electoral college with ~350 votes, probably winning Wisconsin, Nevada, NH, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

Gallup doesn't do state polls like many other polling organizations do, so you have those results missing in the state polls which creates a discrepancy between the national polls and the state polls.

I would say an accurate description would be the average of the Gallup and Rasmussen polls, which is +4.5% for Romney. I think that will come down before the election and it will be close but unless it is within 1%, the electoral vote will follow the popular vote, trust me on that.
 
Mitt Romney's national lead over President Obama grew even more Thursday, with the latest Gallup survey showing the Republican nominee up 7 points -- with less than three weeks and just one debate left on the calendar before Election Day.
The Gallup survey, which is based on a seven-day rolling average, showed Romney leading 52-45 percent. At the start of October, he was tied with Obama at 48 percent each.

Romney seems to consistently lead in popular vote. Obama started to come close before the first election. This is probably because Romney carries a higher percentage in the red states than Obama does in blue ones. States like NY are really decided by the urban areas which would favor Obama, but the large rural areas that make up most of the state would be romney's. In the end Ny will go to Obama because it is a winner take all state, and that is a pretty big haul for obama, even though a good percentage of the state might go romney. In the all or nothing states coming close doesn't mean ****. So romney getting a lead in places like AL, MS, texas, and other red states doesn't mean a thing to his campaign. It would show him as a higher percentage in the popular polls rather than the electoral polls.

I would also have to say this is still a bit early to see any real third debate bump or loss. It takes time to compile polls and do the polling, and it seems that the real effect normally becomes clear in about a week. this happened for the first debate which saw romney's gains to be far larger a week or so after the first debate.

It is great to cherry pick an individual poll, but statistically you have to take all valid polls into account. In any statistical study an anomoly of such a huge difference would cause the data to become suspect considering many other polls have shown other things. Since all polls involve a small sample set it is very possible that one or two may find an extreme difference. This appens due to pure circumstance where a poll or study may find a unlucky sample set where they get a grouping of results that do not show the actual spread. this is why real scientific studies which involve using data that do not include all possible results tend to do multiple studies and correlate the information to get a much more accurate result. you would know this if you took some college courses on statistics or scientific research. However, for the Op who0s eems to have a simpler mind it would be like going into a casino and seeing roulette results where the same number popped up multiple times in a row. Anyone who has ever gambled in a casino has seen streaks on what should be a purely random outcome. The fact is that casinos remain profitable because despite the reality winning streaks may happen, on the whole you lose over the entire system. In the end a streak will mean nothing for romney when the polls will count the entire system of voters, and this is why statistical anomolies cannot be taken with any seriousness because they inherently do not include over 99 percent of the actual voters. Only on a large scall number of correlated polls can you see a more accurate representation of the potential vote. Even that fails because different polling organizations use different methods and ask different supposedly random sets.

All in all the polling information is great for sticking it in people's face before the election, and if that was your purpose than have some fun with that because eventually the election will happen. Then you will either have a real result to use, or or the people you stuck it to will be happy to rub your face in the loss. Still, if you are pinning your hopes on a rare poll that shows very inconsistent results i would suggest preparing yourself mentally for a loss. In the real result this could be like spiking the ball on the 5 yard line, or maybe even in midfield in this case. Sure you have fun doing your victory dance, but you really look stupid when you figure out how big you failed.
 
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