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Romney's Lead in Gallup and Rasmussen Polls Expands Following 2nd Debate

LowDown

LowDown

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Left wingers thought that Obama won the 2nd debate on points. They thought that he was much more lively and stuck up for himself more forcefully. But what undecideds have been looking for is a reason to go for Romney. They already know about Obama, but many of them were not familiar with Romney. So when Romney provided a solid performance twice we can see the results:

Rasmussen Tracking (10/15-10/17) R 49, O 47

Gallup Tracking (10/11-10/17) R 52, O 45

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
 
A little too early to draw conclusions about the effects of the debates on the polls -- particularly Gallup, which is a 7-day rolling average.
 
Hmm. At no time has Romney led Obama, or broken 200 EV. Until now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ollege_map_race_changes.html#previous_changes

10/18 North Carolina Toss Up »»» Leans Romney Obama 201 - Romney 206 Romney +0.5
10/17 Montana Likely Romney »»» Leans Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +0.4
10/17 New Jersey Likely Obama »»» Leans Obama Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +0.4
10/16 Indiana Leans Romney »»» Likely Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +0.4
10/14 New Mexico Leans Obama »»» Likely Obama Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +1.0
10/13 Missouri Toss Up »»» Leans Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +1.3
10/13 South Carolina Leans Romney »»» Likely Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +1.3
10/11 Michigan Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 201 - Romney 181 Romney +0.7
10/10 New Hampshire Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 181 Romney +1.5
10/10 Pennsylvania Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 181 Romney +1.5
10/10 Wisconsin Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 181 Romney +1.5
10/5 Ohio Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 251 - Romney 181 Obama +2.6
10/2 Missouri Leans Romney »»» Toss Up Obama 269 - Romney 181 Obama +3.3
10/1 New Hampshire Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 269 - Romney 191 Obama +4.0
9/26 Ohio Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 265 - Romney 191 Obama +4.0
9/21 Georgia Leans Romney »»» Likely Romney Obama 247 - Romney 191 Obama +3.5
9/20 Connecticut Leans Obama »»» Likely Obama Obama 247 - Romney 191 Obama +3.1
9/19 Wisconsin Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 247 - Romney 191 Obama +2.9
9/12 Michigan Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 237 - Romney 191 Obama +3.5
8/30 Missouri Toss Up »»» Leans Romney Obama 221 - Romney 191 Obama +0.6
8/24 Missouri Leans Romney »»» Toss Up Obama 221 - Romney 181 Obama +1.0
8/23 Connecticut Likely Obama »»» Leans Obama Obama 221 - Romney 191 Obama +1.0
8/23 Montana Leans Romney »»» Likely Romney Obama 221 - Romney 191 Obama +1.0
8/21 Michigan Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 221 - Romney 191 Obama +2.7
8/11 Wisconsin Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 237 - Romney 191 Obama +4.6
8/1 Michigan Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 247 - Romney 191 Obama +2.0
7/28 Missouri Toss Up »»» Leans Romney Obama 231 - Romney 191 Obama +1.3
7/24 Wisconsin Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 231 - Romney 181 Obama +1.8
7/18 New Mexico Likely Obama »»» Leans Obama Obama 221 - Romney 181 Obama +1.4
7/3 Maine Leans Obama »»» Likely Obama Obama 221 - Romney 181 Obama +2.6
6/27 Arizona Toss Up »»» Leans Romney Obama 221 - Romney 181 Obama +3.0
6/14 New Jersey Leans Obama »»» Likely Obama Obama 221 - Romney 170 Obama +0.8
6/7 Michigan Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 221 - Romney 170 Obama +2.2
5/31 Nevada Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 237 - Romney 170 Obama +2.3
5/29 Michigan Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 243 - Romney 170 Obama +2.0
5/22 Michigan Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 227 - Romney 170 Obama +1.9
5/15 Wisconsin Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 243 - Romney 170 Obama +1.8
5/3 Nevada Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 253 - Romney 170 Obama +3.4
5/3 Pennsylvania Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 253 - Romney 170 Obama +3.4
4/12 Colorado Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 227 - Romney 170 Obama +4.3
4/12 Nevada Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 227 - Romney 170 Obama +4.3
4/12 New Jersey Likely Obama »»» Leans Obama Obama 227 - Romney 170 Obama +4.3
4/12 Ohio Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 227 - Romney 170 Obama +4.3
4/12 Pennsylvania Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 227 - Romney 170 Obama +4.3
4/10 Arizona Leans Romney »»» Toss Up Obama 280 - Romney 181 Obama +5.3
4/10 Colorado Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 280 - Romney 181 Obama +5.3
4/10 Ohio Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 280 - Romney 181 Obama +5.3
4/10 Pennsylvania Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 280 - Romney 181 Obama +5.3
4/4 Nevada Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 233 - Romney 181 Obama +4.0
2/23 Wisconsin Toss Up »»» Leans Obama Obama 227 - Romney 181 Obama +5.1
2/7 Missouri Leans Romney »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 181 Obama +4.2
2/2 Iowa Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 195 Obama +1.9
2/2 Nevada Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 195 Obama +1.9
 
While I still believe 'polls are for strippers', the oversampling of Democrats which we were whinning about weeks ago is still being done (based on the few polls that have made them freely available). I believe this even skews the numbers even moreso for Romney...
 
AdamT said:
A little too early to draw conclusions about the effects of the debates on the polls -- particularly Gallup, which is a 7-day rolling average.
Click to expand...

yea... Obama needs a 10 point swing to again make it even within the margin of error...Obama didnt even win the last debate.. and without Candy Obama , Obama would have been sunk.. we now believe our eyes and not Axlerods or Bidens hair plugs

in other news NJ is up for grabs, so is Pa....
 
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LowDown said:
Left wingers thought that Obama won the 2nd debate on points. They thought that he was much more lively and stuck up for himself more forcefully. But what undecideds have been looking for is a reason to go for Romney. They already know about Obama, but many of them were not familiar with Romney. So when Romney provided a solid performance twice we can see the results:

Rasmussen Tracking (10/15-10/17) R 49, O 47

Gallup Tracking (10/11-10/17) R 52, O 45

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Click to expand...

He destroyed Obama in every category particularly on the Economy and Deficits. By 30%.

It's over libs. Obama failed. Nobody is buying the Kool-Aid anymore. It's been spiked with radical Marxism.
 
Funny how none of y'all conservatives complained about the oversampling of Republicans in the CNN debate poll. :lol:

As far as the broader polls go, Obama still has a significant electoral college advantage. We shall see in the coming days and weeks.
 
Dickieboy said:
While I still believe 'polls are for strippers', the oversampling of Democrats which we were whinning about weeks ago is still being done (based on the few polls that have made them freely available). I believe this even skews the numbers even moreso for Romney...
Click to expand...

I agree.....
 
AdamT said:
Funny how none of y'all conservatives complained about the oversampling of Republicans in the CNN debate poll. :lol:

As far as the broader polls go, Obama still has a significant electoral college advantage. We shall see in the coming days and weeks.
Click to expand...

sure he does.. you havent checked the EC map have you?... thats fading away for Obama...if it wasnt for Cali and NY Obama would be finished already
 
Come on New Jersey let"s go for a winner and vote Republican this year.I'm a Dem. but I know a loser when I see one.
 
AdamT said:
As far as the broader polls go, Obama still has a significant electoral college advantage.
Click to expand...
Not according to what I just posted - many of Obama's "likely" are trending "Leans", and "leans" are trending to toss-ups.

10/18 North Carolina Toss Up »»» Leans Romney Obama 201 - Romney 206 Romney +0.5
10/17 Montana Likely Romney »»» Leans Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +0.4
10/17 New Jersey Likely Obama »»» Leans Obama Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +0.4
10/16 Indiana Leans Romney »»» Likely Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +0.4
10/14 New Mexico Leans Obama »»» Likely Obama Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +1.0
10/13 Missouri Toss Up »»» Leans Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +1.3
10/13 South Carolina Leans Romney »»» Likely Romney Obama 201 - Romney 191 Romney +1.3
10/11 Michigan Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 201 - Romney 181 Romney +0.7
10/10 New Hampshire Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 181 Romney +1.5
10/10 Pennsylvania Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 181 Romney +1.5
10/10 Wisconsin Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 217 - Romney 181 Romney +1.5
10/5 Ohio Leans Obama »»» Toss Up Obama 251 - Romney 181 Obama +2.6
10/2 Missouri Leans Romney »»» Toss Up Obama 269 - Romney 181 Obama +3.3

The swing states have seen an improvement for Romney.
 
AdamT said:
Funny how none of y'all conservatives complained about the oversampling of Republicans in the CNN debate poll. :lol:
Click to expand...

Really? The outcome of a debate poll has some significance? grasping at straws comes to mind...:lamo

As far as the broader polls go, Obama still has a significant electoral college advantage. We shall see in the coming days and weeks.
Click to expand...

Based on whose analysis? Huffpo?
 
AdamT said:
Funny how none of y'all conservatives complained about the oversampling of Republicans in the CNN debate poll. :lol:

As far as the broader polls go, Obama still has a significant electoral college advantage. We shall see in the coming days and weeks.
Click to expand...


It's nice to note, you've given up on the popular vote for Obama, now your hanging from a cliff by your fingernails hoping you win the electoral vote. Not going to happen.
 
AdamT said:
Funny how none of y'all conservatives complained about the oversampling of Republicans in the CNN debate poll. :lol:

As far as the broader polls go, Obama still has a significant electoral college advantage. We shall see in the coming days and weeks.
Click to expand...

I think it probably is true that there are more Republicans than usual this year.
 
Born Free said:
It's nice to note, you've given up on the popular vote for Obama, now your hanging from a cliff by your fingernails hoping you win the electoral vote. Not going to happen.
Click to expand...

I don't want to upset you, but Obama is still a 65:35 favorite to win the election. There's almost exact agreement on that in the betting sites (people who are putting up real cash) and poll analysis sites like FiveThirtyEight and Pollster.
 
AdamT said:
Funny how none of y'all conservatives complained about the oversampling of Republicans in the CNN debate poll. :lol:

As far as the broader polls go, Obama still has a significant electoral college advantage. We shall see in the coming days and weeks.
Click to expand...

"T" I noticed you picked up Biden's "y'all" accent, The republicans are going to put Y'aaalllll back in chains. Pathetic
 
LowDown said:
I think it probably is true that there are more Republicans than usual this year.
Click to expand...

Except when the polls find more Democratic likely voters, of course. Can y'all be any more hypocritical?
 
AdamT said:
I don't want to upset you, but Obama is still a 65:35 favorite to win the election. There's almost exact agreement on that in the betting sites (people who are putting up real cash) and poll analysis sites like FiveThirtyEight and Pollster.
Click to expand...


As of today,

GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
 
Born Free said:
"T" I noticed you picked up Biden's "y'all" accent, The republicans are going to put Y'aaalllll back in chains. Pathetic
Click to expand...

I've been y'all'in since before Biden won his first Senate campaign.
 
vermae said:
Come on New Jersey let"s go for a winner and vote Republican this year.I'm a Dem. but I know a loser when I see one.
Click to expand...

NJ will be very tight.. its possible though... I dont see any momentum for Obama.. and Chris Christy has shown NJ that we can have a fiscal plan and have ou social issues not tread upon.. much like Mitt..
 
Born Free said:
As of today,

GALLUP: R 52% O 45%
Click to expand...

Yep, I saw that, and those results are accounted for in the predictions. For some reason Gallup seems to become an outlier in recent days, breaking even more right than Rasmussen.
 
AdamT said:
I don't want to upset you, but Obama is still a 65:35 favorite to win the election. There's almost exact agreement on that in the betting sites (people who are putting up real cash) and poll analysis sites like FiveThirtyEight and Pollster.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and Intrade was off 30 points on the Wisconsin recall...surely you understand betting is no measurement of the electorate...right?
 
Born Free said:
It's nice to note, you've given up on the popular vote for Obama, now your hanging from a cliff by your fingernails hoping you win the electoral vote. Not going to happen.
Click to expand...

Don't be silly. Obama will probably win the popular vote by a small margin, too.

btw, new Ipsos/Reuters poll has Obama +3 nationally.

Something odd going on at Gallup.
 
AdamT said:
Except when the polls find more Democratic likely voters, of course...
Click to expand...

That is exactly the point. The polsters are finding more Democratic likely voters AND Romney is surging ahead...explaination?
 
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