What it ultimate boils down to is this tiresome exchange:
Me: Logic.
You, Zyphlin, Harshaw, etc: Emotion.
Me: Logic.
You, Zyphlin, Harshaw, etc: Emotion!
Me: Logic, please.
You, Zyphlin, Harshaw, etc: EMOTION!
Pardon me if that gets a bit tedious. I find one of the strongest indicators that I am right to be the fact that the bookmakers agree with me.
Here's a rehashing of my well reasoned, correct argument.
1. Evangelicals are lukewarm to him because they don't view him as Christian.
2. Blue collar Republicans are lukewarm to him because they are alienated by his Bain experience and generally callous attitude towards the poor.
3. He has high expectations on him for the next two debates, but instead he's going to spend them trying to reconcile the lies he told in the first debate with the past two years of campaign promises (usually politicians wait until they are in office before they go back on their campaign promises; Mitt didn't even make it through the first debate).
4. Obama's liberal base have their ire up now, are are paying even closer attention, which will translate into higher voter turnout on the left; Obama cannot afford to have his base think this is in the bag or they will spend election day at home with their bongs.
5. Romney has to go on the attack now, which makes him even less likeable. When Obama attacks, he does it in such a cool way that it makes him more likeable. Romney is now stuck in quicksand, and all Obama has to do is not get pulled in too.
This election is Obama's to lose, and he is too careful and masterful at his craft to botch it. The election is over. QED