Unemployement Drops: Legitimate or Not?

But, the problem is that no matter how the Right may try to spin that report the president is going to get the credit. He is going to use that as evidence that the economy is improving, although the number of jobs created is not enough to keep up with population growth. I also thing that report is going to help the president a lot as far as getting a second term is concerned. I don't know what you all think about that?

Also indicating a slight upswing in the overall labor market was the sizable upward revisions to payrolls in both July and August. Positive news as a whole, and certainly better than some would have projected.

Samhain said:

It means that we are still in stagnant growth. Until the rate spikes up, we aren't seeing significant growth.

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Opposite day I presume?

OscarB63 said:

Considering the Obama admin is offering to compensate companies to violate the WARN Act in order to prevent hundreds of thousands of defense workers from getting layoff notices in the week before the election, I have a hard time trusting anything they say about employment rates

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You don't have to, seeing as the Obama administration takes no part in tallying said data.

LowDown said:

The unemployment rate has suddenly dropped just as the President's fortures took a turn for the worst. What does this mean?

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It didn't "drop suddenly"....its been coming down gradually for months. At least be honest.

Clearly it's a conspiracy. I guess Obama didn't figure out until this week that he could make the unemployment number whatever he wanted it to be.

tererun said:

Unemployment drops right near the christmas season? Of course, the romtards cannot see this for what it is because they do not have the brain cells to do simple math. So they claim conspiracy after conspiracy which if true completely debunks their main claim that the economy was doing horrible because it was based on the very numbers they claim to be altered by the president. Like always, their story makes no sense.

However, a jump in seasonal employment is to be expected. You have a number of jobs opening due to kids going back to school. You have the back to school rush to buy clothes, electronics, and school supplies. You have the prep for the christmas season, and two big holiday buying seasons. Not to mention that last week of summer vacation rush right before school. There is also the release of next years car models to boost car sales. The electronics people are going to be dumping cheap older models to make room for the christmas goodies. From here until january return season many businesses will be hiring and seeing increased revenue.

A good businessman would have been prepared for a very predictable rise in revenue and commerce that would boost america's economy. It happens every year. I guess this means Mittens is a piss ****ing poor businessman because he did not know about the year end holiday season buying spree?

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Hilarious! Just the point I was going to bring up. Thank you for showing that Obama's better numbers are not actually better numbers but as a result of seaonal hires. That means we'll expect more truly bad numbers come January when the seasonal hires get their pink slips.

LowDown said:

The unemployment rate has suddenly dropped just as the President's fortures took a turn for the worst. What does this mean?

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That some of the right are paranoid conspiracists that live in a fantasy world?

OscarB63 said:

If you are physically and mentally able to work and you don't have a job, you should be counted in the unemployment numbers

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What about people who don't want to / need to work. Should we count Romney as unemployed? Maybe a stay-at-home mother?

I am also skeptical of the methods used to calculate the rate, but these figures are mostly used for comparative purposes. If the new method is not the same as the old method, the information loses much of its usefulness as it is no longer comparable. I would suggest we run two measures simultaneously for a period of time until we have enough history for comparative purposes.

The numbers just don't add up... Even the morning folks on MSNBC an see that.

LowDown said:

The unemployment rate has suddenly dropped just as the President's fortures took a turn for the worst. What does this mean?

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Don't you think that if he were fabricating numbers, he would have fabricated one that's a little lower?

disneydude said:

It didn't "drop suddenly"....its been coming down gradually for months. At least be honest.

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To be honest, it hasn't been coming down gradually for months. It's hovered between 8.1 and 8.3 since February.

Grim17 said:

The numbers just don't add up... Even the morning folks on MSNBC an see that.

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You are quoting Joe Scarborough ????? He hates Obama. He looks upset which I am sure most republican pundits had the same expression.


Anyway. Conservatives can't have it both ways. You can't run a campaign bashing the president over the head with the unemployment numbers and then discredit the same source when they are not in your favor. I always knew that this would come back and hurt Romney.

clownboy said:

Hilarious! Just the point I was going to bring up. Thank you for showing that Obama's better numbers are not actually better numbers but as a result of seaonal hires. That means we'll expect more truly bad numbers come January when the seasonal hires get their pink slips.

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The reason why this really doesn't matter is the same why Romney was able to get a boost from the first debate, and why the first debate won't mean much if obama turns it around. Most american voters have the attention span of a 2 year old with severe ADD, and the intelligence to match. if the election were to be in february when the january drop came out, and people saw their christmas bills then I would say you are right. Instead it will be in november when january does not exist to those people. Obama will be working off of finally lowering the unemployment rate below 8 percent, and this will show most voters the republicans are full of **** when they say he can't do it. All of romney's claims that obama can't do it, and that we are doing horrible seem less credible. Now obama can work off of a new great number and gain support off of that.

It is terrible news for Romney because in the final month of the campaigning Obama has great employment news. now Romney has to combat it with complete crazy talk of conspiracies that make no sense because if obama was going to fudge the numbers he certainly would have done it a long time ago. Then you add the decrease in credibility that is going to hit Romney in the next two weeks as every lie he said in the last debate gets dragged out and beaten to death with all the other horses. I would say this is pretty bad news for Romney because most americans are not going to get the reality that daily, weekly, or monthly reports on these things really don't matter. It is the long term trends which show true growth, and for those who look at the long term trends we see a couple of years of steady growth under Obama. The republicans work off the monthly reports because they have looked better for them, but this just blew them away. With Gas prices doing their normal winter drop they have lost another whining point.

In other words Romney has to pray for a huge event probably around the last week of october. Given this is the last jobs report we will see before then he has to hope for something else.

disneydude said:

It didn't "drop suddenly"....its been coming down gradually for months. At least be honest.

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Sorry, but you are wrong. This is the biggest monthly increase in employment since 1983, if the figures are to be trusted. It represents 873,000 new jobs in one month.

I find the figures unbelievable because Gallup's unemployment poll numbers are unchanged and because this administration has been thoroughly unreliable and cynical when it comes to such manipulation. Witness their attempts to suppress defense layoffs.

Don't attribute to my dishonesty what is more readily explained by your own ignorance.

rcart76 said:

You are quoting Joe Scarborough ????? He hates Obama. He looks upset which I am sure most republican pundits had the same expression.


Anyway. Conservatives can't have it both ways. You can't run a campaign bashing the president over the head with the unemployment numbers and then discredit the same source when they are not in your favor. I always knew that this would come back and hurt Romney.

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It's not just Joe Scarborough who thinks there's something screwy here... If you're honest, you'll acknowledge the same. I realize that putting honesty above politics is probably asking too much from you, so I'm not expecting you to do that.

disneydude said:

It didn't "drop suddenly"....its been coming down gradually for months. At least be honest.

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What on earth would you know about honesty? BLS.gov disagrees with you unless you call 22.7 million unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers an improvement? You see simple facts always get in the way of an Obama supporter who believes in a big trickle down govt.

AdamT said:

Clearly it's a conspiracy. I guess Obama didn't figure out until this week that he could make the unemployment number whatever he wanted it to be.

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silly rabbit...it's all about timing. a drop in unemployment a year ago would have been forgotten and done nothing to help Obama right before the election

clownboy said:

Hilarious! Just the point I was going to bring up. Thank you for showing that Obama's better numbers are not actually better numbers but as a result of seaonal hires. That means we'll expect more truly bad numbers come January when the seasonal hires get their pink slips.

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not to mention all those defense workers who will get laid off right after the election.

Travis007 said:

calculate this.. what would the unemployment rate be if we had the same amount of people looking for work instead on not being counted anymore as they have given up looking , since the day Obama got into office..

what would that rate be? I will say 12-14%

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An oversight that didn't just magically appear when Obama became president. You would have to revise the numbers up for the Bush II years also. This is just another typical example of something only being an issue when it doesn't benefit Republicans.

Loki97 said:

This is just another typical example of something only being an issue when it doesn't benefit Republicans.

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pot....meet kettle

LowDown said:

Sorry, but you are wrong. This is the biggest monthly increase in employment since 1983, if the figures are to be trusted. It represents 873,000 new jobs in one month.

I find the figures unbelievable because Gallup's unemployment poll numbers are unchanged and because this administration has been thoroughly unreliable and cynical when it comes to such manipulation. Witness their attempts to suppress defense layoffs.

Don't attribute to my dishonesty what is more readily explained by your own ignorance.

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Actually it represents new jobs this month, plus several months of upwards adjustments. But are you trying to say that Reagan fudged the numbers in '83 in order to swing the election?

AdamT said:

Actually it represents new jobs this month, plus several months of upwards adjustments. But are you trying to say that Reagan fudged the numbers in '83 in order to swing the election?

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I wouldn't have put it past him to do so. You should see what he did to California to be able to say he had a balanced budget there.

Loki97 said:

An oversight that didn't just magically appear when Obama became president. You would have to revise the numbers up for the Bush II years also. This is just another typical example of something only being an issue when it doesn't benefit Republicans.

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So tell me how does the unemployment rate drop .3 with a 114,000 job creation? Think about it? Does that make sense to you? Why are you so willing to accept the numbers without getting the details? Could it be because you want them to be true? And if so, why, is Obama's vision for this country yours?