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Why polls show more "democrats"

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shiang

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There's more Democrats in the country than Republicans, not by much, but a few percent. It's something along the lines of 47% Democrats, 10% independent, 43% Republican. *note numbers may not be exact*

It's also true that Republicans are more reliable party line voters than democrats, and middle age white male has the best turn out ratio which tends to lean slightly Republican compare to the entire nation.

...So enough with acusing the pollsters of being "bias". "Likely voter" polling, I do agree is generally more accurate, here Obama still has the lead.
 
Wrong: its based on what happened in 2008.. You have constantly spouted pro Obama posts so its not surprising you are going to continue to make claims to help Obama. The entire point of those polls is to suppress GOP vote
 
shiang said:
There's more Democrats in the country than Republicans, not by much, but a few percent. It's something along the lines of 47% Democrats, 10% independent, 43% Republican. *note numbers may not be exact*
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More like your numbers may be WAY the hell off.

Rasmussen polling....

August 2012

Republicans 37.6% Democrats 33.3% Independent/other 29.2%


Summary of Party Affiliation - Rasmussen Reports™
 
Don't trust polls. Or rather, don't trust one single poll.
 
Goshin said:
More like your numbers may be WAY the hell off.

Rasmussen polling....

August 2012

Republicans 37.6% Democrats 33.3% Independent/other 29.2%


Summary of Party Affiliation - Rasmussen Reports™
Click to expand...

Certainly tells me never to believe a poll they release if they are trying to pass off bogus figures like that. The following article does say the number of Democrats has diminished considerably faster than Republicans but with a 12M cushion it would take a decade of steady erosion to even come close to parity.

Voters are leaving main parties in droves
 
shiang said:
There's more Democrats in the country than Republicans, not by much, but a few percent. It's something along the lines of 47% Democrats, 10% independent, 43% Republican. *note numbers may not be exact*

It's also true that Republicans are more reliable party line voters than democrats, and middle age white male has the best turn out ratio which tends to lean slightly Republican compare to the entire nation.

...So enough with acusing the pollsters of being "bias". "Likely voter" polling, I do agree is generally more accurate, here Obama still has the lead.
Click to expand...

I'm a registered Republican but I have no problem with President Obama, or with him getting re-elected.

Party affiliation is separate and independent from supporting a certain candidate. Especially in a two-party system, in which adherence to a party platform is much less than a multi-party system.
 
nota bene said:
I'm part of the 38%. Hmmmpf, but nobody's ever polled me in my whole life. (Who are these "Nielson families," LOL?)
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I was actually part of the Nielson Consumer Panel until recently. You just sign up on their website and if you meet their demographic needs you get added into the mix.
 
To me looking at past party performance over a long period of time is the more accurate basis for estimating what performance may be in the future. The people who self-identify as independents generally lean strongly one way or the other but will cross from the party they lean toward when a particular candidate grabs their fancy or a particular candidate repulses them. It is seldom that in a national race for one party or the other to outperform the other anywhere close to the number of independents except in those safe-seat races where the party in opposition just lets whoever wants to run run with very little party support because they stand no chance anyway so they are just a space-filler candidate.
 
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