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Not one McCain voter will vote for Obama.. so where will Obama get the votes? [W:198]

Travis007 said:
they wont.. thats the point.. Obama cant get those numbers again...Romney will start where Mccain left off... and that election was close..
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He's going to need some battleground states, and those are starting to trend to Obama. Dosen't matter if he wins North Dakota by a landslide, that's only 3 votes. If there's one thing we learned from Al Gore, it's that popular vote doesn't get you elected, it's the popular vote in certain states.
 
Taylor said:
Bad "likely voter" calculations?
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correct and the creation of the massive dependents that Obama has ruined to economy to create... as we see them dropping out of the work force and not even looking for work...
 
rocket88 said:
He's going to need some battleground states, and those are starting to trend to Obama. Dosen't matter if he wins North Dakota by a landslide, that's only 3 votes. If there's one thing we learned from Al Gore, it's that popular vote doesn't get you elected, it's the popular vote in certain states.
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Florida, Ohio, VA, N Carolina will all come back to the GOP as the Mid Terms showed...

if we could just have California sink into the Pacific our country could be saved,,,: ) ( joke )
 
Travis007 said:
correct and the creation of the massive dependents that Obama has ruined to economy to create... as we see them dropping out of the work force and not even looking for work...
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I was on the welfare....
 
Based on prior analysis in this thread, Obama will get less than 500 votes and it will be a Romney landslide unequaled in history.

So, now the race is between Romney and Johnson with the Obama guy out of the picture.
 
rocket88 said:



I was on the welfare....
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who cares,, stay on subject...

where is Obama getting thse votes? and how can these fake polls be real?...
 
Travis007 said:
Florida, Ohio, VA, N Carolina will all come back to the GOP as the Mid Terms showed...

if we could just have California sink into the Pacific our country could be saved,,,: ) ( joke )
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The big O's got leads right now in Florida and Ohio. Those are the keys. We're not even to the debates yet, so there's plenty of time for Romney to say something stupid and piss off more folks.
 
Travis007 said:
who cares,, stay on subject...

where is Obama getting thse votes? and how can these fake polls be real?...
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All polls are fake. You can twist them any which way you want. In the end, it's still close. Could go either way.

Think of it like this: One guys opinion is not trustworthy necessarily, everybody's got one. Translate that to 1,000 opinions. That's a poll.
 
rocket88 said:
The big O's got leads right now in Florida and Ohio. Those are the keys. We're not even to the debates yet, so there's plenty of time for Romney to say something stupid and piss off more folks.
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Romney cant lose a vote.. his supporters already know he is better.. there is nothing Mitt can slip up on because we know his moral character...

only Obama can lose voters..Obama knows he a loser.. he is one
 
Travis007 said:
Lets think about this...

Not one McCain voter will vote for Obama...
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We start out with a flaw right here. Besides the fact I know two people who voted for McCain who are voting for Obama, some recent polling has showed that Obama's attempts to persuade elderly voters to vote for him due to Ryan's supposed changes to medicare seems to be working. Whether his attacks are true or not, and I believe they aren't for the most part, is irrelevant as they seem to be working.

Obama will not get the turnout of the African American Community and some will quietly vote for Romney
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He won't get 98% again, but close to it. Turnout will be down, but will still probably be higher than 2000 and 2004 among African Americans.

Latin voters will not support Obama more this time, between the abortion issue and the economy not one more latin vote will go to Obama, the attack on the church values was a mistake... he will get no more then last election and much less
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Polls show he probably won't get much less than last time either, but there are more of them this year.

Jewish voters will and are turning on Obama,period, Obama will lose HALF of those votes this time if not more..
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That's an exaggeration, his support is down, but not near half of 2008.

Christian block voters... thats in Romney column..
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Yep.

Independants?? if he gets 50% id be shocked.. that wont happen, history shows they break for the challenger
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Maybe.

Kids voting, who knows, my gut says they will not show up this time, and Obama will not get the percentage he got last ime...
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Again, turnout will be down, but not by too much, Obama's ground game is still effective, even if he doesn't have the enthusiasm.

Military vote.. thats gone to Romney...
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Yes.

so where is Obama getting his votes needed to beat Romney? Romney starts with every Mccain voter out of the gate.. Obama can only lose voters from last time, he cant get more then he did last time..
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Well, despite your flawed assumption, Obama does start out with a ten million vote cushion from last time. Also, he leads the new voters, either from age or immigration, by large margins. Romney is losing right now, the election isn't lost yet, but he's losing.
 
Travis007 said:
Romney cant lose a vote.. his supporters already know he is better.. there is nothing Mitt can slip up on because we know his moral character...

only Obama can lose voters..Obama knows he a loser.. he is one
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He can lose plenty of votes. He's lost mine.
 
Travis007 said:
again

hes not getting more African American Votes this time ( -10% min)

Not getting more Jewish votes this time ( -40 to 50% )

Not getting more Christian votes this time ( -30% min)

Not getting more Kid votes this time ( who knows but he cant get more)

Not getting more Military votes this time ( -20% min)

Not getting more White Votes this time ( -20% min)

Not getting more Women votes this time ( -20% min)

Not getting more Senior votes this time ( -15%)

and Romney is NOT losing one McCain voter...


where are those Obama votes coming from????
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Do you have any data for that, or are those statistics just made up?
 
rocket88 said:
He can lose plenty of votes. He's lost mine.
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Really? You seemed pretty sure about voting for Romney a few months ago, if I remember correctly. What made you change your mind?
 
Travis007 said:
Not one McCain voter will vote for Obama..
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I can think of several reasons why someone who voted for a maverick war hero would not vote for a prissy 1%-er whose ideology changes with the wind and who, by his own words, thinks half the country consists of lazy moochers who refuse to take personal responsibility over their lives.

I can also see why social conservatives and working class voters who voted mostly for Palin would see nothing attractive about the Romney-Ryan ticket.

Not saying they'll vote for Obama. But they may just not show up, or write-in, or vote third party.

Your inability to even imagine these scenarios demonstrates your extreme bias.
 
Travis007 said:
I ask the Obamabots here to refute this and show how this is incorrect...
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You didn't display a single fact in your entire post. You basically took a dump on the floor and asked us to refute it.

You're assumption that Romney is getting every McCain voted is silly on it's face. McCain was a war hero with decades of experience in government and for the most part campaigned on what he really believed in, working across the isle to get stuff done, strong military etc. Romney had a short stint as governor of Mass., no foreign policy experience what so ever, has worked with the other side, however now is trying to distance himself from that record, passed a healthcare law that he is now trying to embrace while simultaneously declaring how awful it is etc. They are two completely different candidates and you're assumption that just because you don't care about the details and are going to vote for who ever the Republicans elect, that everyone is going to do the same is silly. I don't think a large number of McCain voters are going to vote Obama, but I do think that Romney has given them a terrific reason to just stay home on election day.

You're assessment of latin voters is crazy. Obama has embraced the dream act that the republicans have stood against, and he has done what he can as president to get as much done as possible. Also, the whole "went against the church" thing is long gone and was never an effective attack in the first place.

Jewish voters, there's no reason to pick Romney over Obama. I don't see any reason for them to turn on Obama unless you believe the made up talking points that Obama hates Israel, which I don't think most Jew's do. If they care about that, they are smart enough to look at Obama's actions and words rather than talking points.

Christian block voters will go for Romney, but we can't be sure in what numbers with him being a formerly pro-choice guy.

Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom - NYTimes.com
Let’s first look at the incumbent candidates for Senate. How many candidates who met this definition — leading in the polls, but with less than 50 percent of the vote — were upended in their re-election bid? Actually, the percentage is pretty high. Of 25 such candidates, 9 of them lost, or 36 percent:
...
What about gubernatorial incumbents? Did they suffer a similar fate?

No; the theory holds up less well here. Of the 23 gubernatorial incumbents who sat at under 50 percent in the polls — but held a lead over their opponents — 19 held on for the victory. That’s a success rate of 83 percent.

How about House candidates? It stands to reason that, to the extent this effect exists, it would be felt the most among House incumbents, since their opponents — who usually lack the pedigrees that challengers in Senate or governors’ races do — will often have poor name recognition until late in the cycle.

In fact, however, the House incumbents in our sample did well: 31 out of 35 of them won their races, or 89 percent:
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The idea that any incumbent sitting below 50% is in real trouble is false. Most of the time they win. You can't just say other wise. The numbers prove my point very well.

You just have a gut feeling that kids won't show up? Lol. Hard to argue with your gut feeling, lol. I'm sure it's dead on balls accurate, way more accurate than polling I'm sure, lol.
 
roughdraft274 said:
You didn't display a single fact in your entire post. You basically took a dump on the floor and asked us to refute it.

You're assumption that Romney is getting every McCain voted is silly on it's face. McCain was a war hero with decades of experience in government and for the most part campaigned on what he really believed in, working across the isle to get stuff done, strong military etc. Romney had a short stint as governor of Mass., no foreign policy experience what so ever, has worked with the other side, however now is trying to distance himself from that record, passed a healthcare law that he is now trying to embrace while simultaneously declaring how awful it is etc. They are two completely different candidates and you're assumption that just because you don't care about the details and are going to vote for who ever the Republicans elect, that everyone is going to do the same is silly. I don't think a large number of McCain voters are going to vote Obama, but I do think that Romney has given them a terrific reason to just stay home on election day.

You're assessment of latin voters is crazy. Obama has embraced the dream act that the republicans have stood against, and he has done what he can as president to get as much done as possible. Also, the whole "went against the church" thing is long gone and was never an effective attack in the first place.

Jewish voters, there's no reason to pick Romney over Obama. I don't see any reason for them to turn on Obama unless you believe the made up talking points that Obama hates Israel, which I don't think most Jew's do. If they care about that, they are smart enough to look at Obama's actions and words rather than talking points.

Christian block voters will go for Romney, but we can't be sure in what numbers with him being a formerly pro-choice guy.

Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom - NYTimes.com


The idea that any incumbent sitting below 50% is in real trouble is false. Most of the time they win. You can't just say other wise. The numbers prove my point very well.

You just have a gut feeling that kids won't show up? Lol. Hard to argue with your gut feeling, lol. I'm sure it's dead on balls accurate, way more accurate than polling I'm sure, lol.
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Your post is wrong on every word... but thanks for illustrating that Obamabots have no idea where Obama is going to pick up a vote..

again your link is MOOT... Its MOOT because the MID TERMS shows the Country wanted Obama to pivot to the middle and he did not.. its over for Obama.... Liberals didnt listen..
 
Travis007 said:
Lets think about this...

Not one McCain voter will vote for Obama...

Obama will not get the turnout of the African American Community and some will quietly vote for Romney

Latin voters will not support Obama more this time, between the abortion issue and the economy not one more latin vote will go to Obama, the attack on the church values was a mistake... he will get no more then last election and much less

Jewish voters will and are turning on Obama,period, Obama will lose HALF of those votes this time if not more..

Christian block voters... thats in Romney column..

Independants?? if he gets 50% id be shocked.. that wont happen, history shows they break for the challenger

Kids voting, who knows, my gut says they will not show up this time, and Obama will not get the percentage he got last ime...

Military vote.. thats gone to Romney...

so where is Obama getting his votes needed to beat Romney? Romney starts with every Mccain voter out of the gate.. Obama can only lose voters from last time, he cant get more then he did last time..

I ask the Obamabots here to refute this and show how this is incorrect...
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Im here alive and well to tell you YOUR DEAD WRONG...I was a firm dedicated McCain supporter, I voted for McCain/Palin, I donated to their campaign and I am FIRMLY voting for Obama this time around...since there are NO McCains or anything even close to him running for Pres or VP
 
Krhazy said:
I can think of several reasons why someone who voted for a maverick war hero would not vote for a prissy 1%-er whose ideology changes with the wind and who, by his own words, thinks half the country consists of lazy moochers who refuse to take personal responsibility over their lives.

I can also see why social conservatives and working class voters who voted mostly for Palin would see nothing attractive about the Romney-Ryan ticket.

Not saying they'll vote for Obama. But they may just not show up, or write-in, or vote third party.

Your inability to even imagine these scenarios demonstrates your extreme bias.
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again you proved my point... not one Mcain voter is voting for Obama.. they may sit out, they may vote 3rd party.. but they wont vote for Obama... some here are BSing that they know a McCain voter and they wont vote for Romney but thats BS as McCain is activey supporting Mitt... and Mccain voters despise Obama and want him gone.. they will vote for Mitt to get back at Obama... know way will a Mccain voter vote for Obama,.... NO WAY...wont happen....if 1% defect Id be shocked..
 
lpast said:
Im here alive and well to tell you YOUR DEAD WRONG...I was a firm dedicated McCain supporter, I voted for McCain/Palin, I donated to their campaign and I am FIRMLY voting for Obama this time around...since there are NO McCains or anything even close to him running for Pres or VP
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I do not believe you..your vote defies all logic..you wont vote for Obama come election day...what I worry about is Romney is too McCainish... too nice, too far to the center, Romney is very liberal in many ways, like Mccain.. they are very similar politcally and ethically

McCain wants you to vote for Mitt.. so why do you defy McCain?
 
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Travis007 said:
again you proved my point... not one Mcain voter is voting for Obama.. they may sit out, they may vote 3rd party.. but they wont vote for Obama... some here are BSing that they know a McCain voter and they wont vote for Romney but thats BS as McCain is activey supporting Mitt... and Mccain voters despise Obama and want him gone.. they will vote for Mitt to get back at Obama... know way will a Mccain voter vote for Obama,.... NO WAY...wont happen....if 1% defect Id be shocked..
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You're sweeping generalizations are just wrong. It seems that Obama's attacks are working, and he seems to be having some success with elderly voters on policy's like medicare and social security. There's some McCain support that's coming to Obama. If a poor president, Obama is an excellent campaigner.

And for irrefutable proof that your statement here "not one Mcain (sic) voter is voting for Obama," Charlie Crist.
 
Travis007 said:
I do not believe you..your vote defies all logic..you wont vote for Obama come election day...
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the forum member posts directly to you that he will vote for Obama and you insist he will not

that statement exemplifies your refusal to acknowledge reality anywhere within your posts. so, continue flinging rocks at stop signs
 
justabubba said:
the forum member posts directly to you that he will vote for Obama and you insist he will not

that statement exemplifies your refusal to acknowledge reality anywhere within your posts. so, continue flinging rocks at stop signs
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he hasnt voted yet... and I dont believe he will
 
Travis007 said:
he hasnt voted yet... and I dont believe he will
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confirming my point once again

because his statement conflicts with what you want to happen, you insist your wants will prevail over reality
 
Travis007 said:
again you proved my point... not one Mcain voter is voting for Obama.. they may sit out, they may vote 3rd party.. but they wont vote for Obama... some here are BSing that they know a McCain voter and they wont vote for Romney but thats BS as McCain is activey supporting Mitt... and Mccain voters despise Obama and want him gone.. they will vote for Mitt to get back at Obama... know way will a Mccain voter vote for Obama,.... NO WAY...wont happen....if 1% defect Id be shocked..
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I quoted the wrong part of your post. The above is very different from your OP, where you stated the following:

Travis007 said:
Romney starts with every Mccain voter out of the gate.
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As stated in my previous post, this is a ridiculous assertion.

It is also inevitably incorrect that Obama will get not a single McCain voter. For example, this poll from August shows that 5% of McCain voters plan on voting for Obama. If true, that is 3 million people.
 
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