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State Polls Today: VA, NV and NC

T

The Prof

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The Prof said:
virginia: romney 44, obama 46, sample D+3, suffolk

46 is awfully low for sitting incumbent

nevada: obama +2, D+7, nbc

NC: obama +2, D+8, nbc

obama won NC by 15000 net in 08

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Suffolk_VA_0927.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Marist_Nevada_9-27.pdf

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Marist_NC_9-27.pdf
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Certainly some much needed positive news for the Romney campaign: Virigina and Nevada in reach.

Of course, Romney needs all three of those states and Obama really needs none of them to win, but still encouraging news for the Romney camp.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map
 
upsideguy said:
Certainly some much needed positive news for the Romney campaign: Virigina and Nevada in reach.

Of course, Romney needs all three of those states and Obama really needs none of them to win, but still encouraging news for the Romney camp.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map
Click to expand...

In reach? Did you see that the polls were slanted and still only had a slight edge to Obama... that's not within reach... those are Romney's states at the moment...
 
upsideguy said:
Certainly some much needed positive news for the Romney campaign: Virigina and Nevada in reach.

Of course, Romney needs all three of those states and Obama really needs none of them to win, but still encouraging news for the Romney camp.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Obama vs. Romney Create Your Own Electoral Map
Click to expand...



again...Obama is going to be wiped out.. these polls show that Obama is done..and Obama will only start now to shed his one time fluke voters that will return to the GOP...Obama cant win another vote.. we all know who he is, only voter fraud can save him

if Obama sneezes at the debate he might as well pack up that night..its over anyway for him.. Hes a spineless loser

maybe Obama can "debate from behind"....?
 
Does the VA number only include Suffolk? I am confused by that notation because Suffolk hardly represents the whole state.
 
Fisher said:
Does the VA number only include Suffolk? I am confused by that notation because Suffolk hardly represents the whole state.
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No, its a Suffolk Univ poll for the whole state.
 
I attended a Romney campaign rally this morning at the Valley Forge Militay Academy in suburban Philadelphia. It's in Chester Co which is supposedly Obama territory. It was a large, enthusiastic crowd and we had to park about a mile away off campus. We couldn't get inside the Hall where he spoke but there was a crowd of about 400-500 people gathered to one side of the building by security and I was able to watch him give his speech through the open side door. I don't know how many people the hall held but there wasn't an open parking spot anywhere near it. I did read 1 report from NBC which described the crowd as "a few hundred".
The state is definitely in play as a republican governor and senator won statewide races in 2010.
A recent poll by the Pittsburgh Tribune- Review had Obama only up by 2 so hopefully Romney will start to campaign in state.
 
Fishstyx said:
No, its a Suffolk Univ poll for the whole state.
Click to expand...

Okay, thanks. Never heard of Suffolk U though. After looking at it I find it is funny that 11% of the people said they had never heard of their own current Governor. I am wondering if the 27% independent are just republicans who do not want to be associated with the GOP or if that demo was oversampled. I don't think Va has ever swung so wildly that 27% is a realistic number of true independents.
 
Travis007 said:
again...Obama is going to be wiped out.. these polls show that Obama is done..and Obama will only start now to shed his one time fluke voters that will return to the GOP...Obama cant win another vote.. we all know who he is, only voter fraud can save him

if Obama sneezes at the debate he might as well pack up that night..its over anyway for him.. Hes a spineless loser

maybe Obama can "debate from behind"....?
Click to expand...

Yeah from behind his teleprompter with someone else giving the answers to him on the screen to read.
 
Born Free said:
Behind his teleprompter with someone else giving the answers to him on the screen to read.
Click to expand...

I don't think he can get away with "It's beyond my pay grade", this time.
 
Born Free said:
Yeah from behind his teleprompter with someone else giving the answers to him on the screen to read.
Click to expand...

Yea... wasnt that how Obama won Libya by "leading from behind" the great strategy that caused the death of 4 Americans..?
yea.. maybe France or Germany can debate for Obama.. he is a true leader..LOL
 
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jerry7 said:
I don't think he can get away with "It's beyond my pay grade", this time.
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Lets face it.. being President is "beyond Obama's pay grade"...

His pay grade is "book writer, fiction"
 
jerry7 said:
I attended a Romney campaign rally this morning at the Valley Forge Militay Academy in suburban Philadelphia. It's in Chester Co which is supposedly Obama territory. It was a large, enthusiastic crowd and we had to park about a mile away off campus. We couldn't get inside the Hall where he spoke but there was a crowd of about 400-500 people gathered to one side of the building by security and I was able to watch him give his speech through the open side door. I don't know how many people the hall held but there wasn't an open parking spot anywhere near it. I did read 1 report from NBC which described the crowd as "a few hundred".
The state is definitely in play as a republican governor and senator won statewide races in 2010.
A recent poll by the Pittsburgh Tribune- Review had Obama only up by 2 so hopefully Romney will start to campaign in state.
Click to expand...

I've wondered why he hasn't made a bigger play for PA in the PA/NJ area along with Christie...

I thought he and Christie should've been touring PA, NJ, NH, VA, and OH together... With Ryan and Daniels in IA, WI, MI, OH, IN, and PA... and Rubio, Jeb Bush, etc. all around the south, especially FL... Maybe he has, I haven't kept full track of his schedule, and maybe he intends on doing it... I just see way too much Romney left on his own on an island.. and traveling in states that aren't all that important to the election... Which swings on FL, or a good comination of Mid-atlantic and midwestern states...
 
Looks like Pennsy is in play..... Im not shocked..

Updated: Monday, September 24, 2012

Two percentage points separate President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a state poll conducted for the Tribune-Review, even though the campaigns largely are ignoring Pennsylvania and concentrating on other battlegrounds.

Obama polled 47 percent to Romney's 45 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 6 percent of voters undecided and 44 days until Election Day, according to the survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research. The survey of 800 voters, conducted Sept. 18-20, has a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points.

The poll showed most voters are disappointed with the country’s direction, evenly split on whether Obama deserves another term and hesitant to back Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts. Fifty-one percent of the state’s voters approve of Obama’s job performance.

Other recent polls showed a larger margin for Obama, leading some to speculate that Pennsylvania — which hasn’t voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1988 — no longer is a swing state. Two of those last four polls gave Obama a lead larger than his margin of victory in 2008, when he defeated Sen. John McCain of Arizona by 10 percentage points.

“All the evidence points to a much closer margin,” said Jim Lee, Susquehanna president. “Nothing suggests we’re looking at anything like 2008.”

Voters continue to put the economy at the top of their list of concerns. Only one in three believes the country is headed in the right direction.

Yet, a deeper look at the numbers shows a more nuanced picture. Romney leads Obama, 48 percent to 44 percent, on the question of who would create jobs to speed up the recovery. Ask who looks out for the interests of the middle class and Obama leads, 56 percent to 38 percent.

snip
Poll: The presidential race is tight in Pennsylvania | TribLIVE
 
IndepCentristMA said:
In reach? Did you see that the polls were slanted and still only had a slight edge to Obama... that's not within reach... those are Romney's states at the moment...
Click to expand...

Only if you start from the flawed premise that there should always be an equal number of Democrats and Republicans surveyed. If the pollsters are finding that more people are calling themselves Democrats than Republicans, then it's perfectly appropriate for the poll to have a larger sample of Democrats than Republicans.
 
jerry7 said:
I attended a Romney campaign rally this morning at the Valley Forge Militay Academy in suburban Philadelphia. It's in Chester Co which is supposedly Obama territory. It was a large, enthusiastic crowd and we had to park about a mile away off campus. We couldn't get inside the Hall where he spoke but there was a crowd of about 400-500 people gathered to one side of the building by security and I was able to watch him give his speech through the open side door. I don't know how many people the hall held but there wasn't an open parking spot anywhere near it. I did read 1 report from NBC which described the crowd as "a few hundred".
The state is definitely in play as a republican governor and senator won statewide races in 2010.
A recent poll by the Pittsburgh Tribune- Review had Obama only up by 2 so hopefully Romney will start to campaign in state.
Click to expand...

The libs who believe these slanted polls are in denial.

Romney/Ryan will win Pennsylvania and Ohio on their way to the White House.
 
On Nov 2, 2008 President BushII's approval rating was 25%.

Iraq and Afghanistan was a shambles.

He was a 'wahtime settin president' as he reminded us repeatedly. he also reminded us he was the decider in chief.

He somehow managed to win that election.

I wouldn't count President Obama out just yet.

he is a 'wahtime settin president'....
 
Kandahar said:
Only if you start from the flawed premise that there should always be an equal number of Democrats and Republicans surveyed. If the pollsters are finding that more people are calling themselves Democrats than Republicans, then it's perfectly appropriate for the poll to have a larger sample of Democrats than Republicans.
Click to expand...

but, nationally, there are more registered republicans than democrats... so it does... especially in a state like NC, which is a 55-45 traditional red state... that even voted 48-44 in favor of Dole over Clinton in 96... so to see +8 Democrats sampled and then the result still only being 2-3 pts in Obama's favor means that NC is a likely red state in this election, too (to do the math for you, that would mean Romney is winning 6% of the Democrats they sampled, and they sampled 8% more democrats than Republicans, which is a traditional +5-10 Republican state)... despite all the efforts of the DNC to try and place it's convention in NC to turn it into a blue state...

let's also not forget this wasnt +1-3% democrats, which might be acceptable or an indication of a changing demographic... These are like +7-8% democrats... those are heavily skewed polls...

if they're finding more people identifying themselves as democrats, it means their method is flawed (or their method is just the way they want it, in order to release the results of skewed polls, which is likely what they want)
 
IndepCentristMA said:
I've wondered why he hasn't made a bigger play for PA in the PA/NJ area along with Christie...

I thought he and Christie should've been touring PA, NJ, NH, VA, and OH together... With Ryan and Daniels in IA, WI, MI, OH, IN, and PA... and Rubio, Jeb Bush, etc. all around the south, especially FL... Maybe he has, I haven't kept full track of his schedule, and maybe he intends on doing it... I just see way too much Romney left on his own on an island.. and traveling in states that aren't all that important to the election... Which swings on FL, or a good comination of Mid-atlantic and midwestern states...
Click to expand...

I don't know that Christie would be a plus outside of the northeast. I think Ryan is zipping around more than Romney though.
 
YAY!!! real clear politics (conservative site) says Romney odds better than lotery. Might as well hope for Obama to die of a heart attack (his doctors say "mint condition") or get "abducted" by mysterious $1 billion UFO =P. Something drastic has to happen for Romeny to win, and no it's not the debates.
 
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IndepCentristMA said:
but, nationally, there are more registered republicans than democrats... so it does... especially in a state like NC, which is a 55-45 traditional red state... that even voted 48-44 in favor of Dole over Clinton in 96... so to see +8 Democrats sampled and then the result still only being 2-3 pts in Obama's favor means that NC is a likely red state in this election, too (to do the math for you, that would mean Romney is winning 6% of the Democrats they sampled, and they sampled 8% more democrats than Republicans, which is a traditional +5-10 Republican state)... despite all the efforts of the DNC to try and place it's convention in NC to turn it into a blue state...

let's also not forget this wasnt +1-3% democrats, which might be acceptable or an indication of a changing demographic... These are like +7-8% democrats... those are heavily skewed polls...

if they're finding more people identifying themselves as democrats, it means their method is flawed (or their method is just the way they want it, in order to release the results of skewed polls, which is likely what they want)
Click to expand...

You are confusing how many people are REGISTERED as Democrats or Republicans, with how many people IDENTIFY as Democrats or Republicans. They are not the same thing. Someone could easily change the way they think of themselves without going to the trouble of actually changing their voter registration. The whole purpose of an opinion poll is to capture shifts in opinion. This includes partisan affiliation. To demand "balance" for partisan affiliation doesn't make sense any more than demanding "balance" between Obama and Romney supporters would (which would produce a 50-50 tie in every poll).

And your assertion that +1-3% Democratic might be acceptable, but +7-8% is not, isn't based on anything other than your guess as to what the opinions of the country are like. Thanks, but I'll trust the pollsters who have actually measured it.
 
Travis007 said:
again...Obama is going to be wiped out.. these polls show that Obama is done..and Obama will only start now to shed his one time fluke voters that will return to the GOP...Obama cant win another vote.. we all know who he is, only voter fraud can save him

if Obama sneezes at the debate he might as well pack up that night..its over anyway for him.. Hes a spineless loser

maybe Obama can "debate from behind"....?
Click to expand...

You might want to tell that to the republican voter fraud going on in Florida!
 
Only if you start from the flawed premise that there should always be an equal number of Democrats and Republicans surveyed
Click to expand...

if pollsters use the 2008 turnout model then this election is close

if they use the 2010 turnout, it's a romney blowout

we'll just have to wait and see

38 days...
 
The Prof said:
if pollsters use the 2008 turnout model then this election is close

if they use the 2010 turnout, it's a romney blowout

we'll just have to wait and see

38 days...
Click to expand...

I think Romney will do better than the polls indicate--for me it is Ohio and FL that give me concern. The old folks in FL would like to burn Ryan in the town square and the rustbelt Ohions are going to favor Obama on economics. It will likely come down to turnout.
 
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