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U.S. economy added 386,000 more jobs in past year than we thought
On Thursday, BLS released newly revised data showing that the U.S. economy appears to have added 386,000 more jobs between April 2011 and March 2012 than the monthly reports had been showing. That would suggest that, in the last year, those monthly BLS reports have been understating job growth by roughly 32,000 jobs per month, on average.
Those extra jobs can add up: If the U.S. economy had in fact been adding, on average, 194,000 new jobs each month over that period instead of 162,000, then the country would be on pace to get back to full employment by 2021 rather than after 2025, according to the Hamilton Project’s calculator. (Though that’s still a slow, anemic recovery by either measure.)
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According to the new BLS numbers, the United States has shed 67,000 more government jobs than thought as of March 2012. Private-sector jobs, by contrast, grew by 453,000 more than originally calculated.
What explains the change? Once a year, the BLS creates a “benchmark” for its jobs numbers by poring over tax records from companies across the country to find out how many people were actually working in March 2012. This helps the agency generate more accurate numbers, but the process takes about 10 months to complete. So, for the monthly reports, the BLS simply relies on smaller, less accurate surveys of businesses. The agency will publish its final benchmark revisions Feb. 1, 2013.