CBS/NYT/QN Today

cbs/nyt/qn today:

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll

PN: obama +7, sample D+11

OH: obama +10, sample D+9

FL: obama +9, D+9

OH turnout in 08 was D+5, in 04 it was R+5

in 2010 (tsunami tuesday, when republicans won five house seats, a senate seat, the governorship and seized control of the lower house---with a new margin of 58-41, while holding on to the upper chamber, now 23-10), voter turnout in OH was D+1 in november, 2010

in FL, turnout was D+3 in 08, R+4 in 04, and in 2010 the party took 4 house seats, a senator, a governor and earned veto-proof majorities in both chambers

PN succumbed as well to the 2010 wave---five congressmen, a senator, governor corbett and new control of the state house, 114-89, while holding the senate, 30-20

voter enthusiasm per qn today:

PN: R's +17

OH: R's +10

FL: R's +4

voter registration has moved net +400K for R's in FL since 08, +200K in PN, and net voter registration is down significantly in cuyahoga county, cleveland, democrat heart of the buckeye state

independents, qn:

OH: romney +1

FL: romney +3

PN: no data

recent polls out of OH:

gravis: sample D+10.3, obama +1

wp: D+9, obama +8

fox: D+6, obama +7

ucin: D+10, obama +5

arg: D+10, obama +1

nbc: D+10, obama +7

avg: D+9.2, obama +4.8

numbers don't brag, numbers don't complain, numbers speak for themselves

Report, Ohio Sep 21-22, 2012(1)

Washington Post Poll (washingtonpost.com)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...ored-over-romney-among-likely-voters-in-ohio/

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120923/NEWS010601/309230026&Ref=AR

Ohio 2012 Presidential Ballot

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/ohio_poll_september.pdf

I"m sorry, but the notion that Democrats advantage in 2012 will be larger than their advantage in 2008 is ridiculous.

The more interesting article in that first source, was the one linked up at the top of it which said...


Are polls "biased" to boost Obama?
Are polls "biased" to boost Obama? - CBS News

In which Rich Beeson, who was with Romney during the primaries, and saw this already before... said the internal polls they're doing shows an entirely different picture...

"You saw in the primaries... you know, we used a specific set of data for our primaries. Each week we would go in, and you know, we'd be 10 or 11 down...whether it was Ohio or Michigan or Wisconsin," Beeson said. "We relied on our internal data. We knew where each day at any given point. That's the same thing we're doing now. The public polls are what the public polls are. I kinda hope the Obama campaign is basing their campaign on what the public polls say. We don't. We have confidence in our data and our metrics."

and, that's exactly true...

After SC, it was said Romney was dead, and that Newt Gingrich had this huge lead.... and then went into the voting, and the friday before FL's vote it had a dead heat or gingrich up 5 in most polls... Romney won FL by 15 pts...

Then, it was MI, and Romney was down 10 pts in MI up until the voting week, and it came down, but most people thought sweater vest was going to win MI, and Romney won it...

Then, the very same thing on Super Tuesday... in OH... Sweatervest had this huge double digit lead in OH, and there was no way Romney was going to be able to come back from it... and then they went into OH and won it fairly comfortably... to the point where there were so many people with knowledge of what was going on that were shocked as to why OH wasn't being called so much earlier than it was in favor of Romney...

The Romney campaign had their numbers and they were confident in them then and it worked out...

Right now the Romney campaign has been saying it's a dead heat... and they're looking forward to the debates...

Throw the polls out the window... once the debates occur they're going to swing, no matter what... but I'll guarantee, the liberal media polls arent going to be an accurate reflection of the race....


I remember the same thing in 2000... FL was announced for Gore (even before voting closed in the western part of the state)... and they clipped to Bush in Texas... and he was quite, calm, comfortable... and said without panic, we're not sure why they're calling FL for Gore, our internal numbers show we're going to win FL, and we are going to win the election... and as the night unfolded, they were right, that's what played out...


Even the media pundits like Joe Trippi, Carl Rove, etc. always say, that the campaigns have internal numbers which are far more accurate than the national media polls, and their numbers tend to be more accurate...

So if the Romney campaign is saying their internal numbers reflect a dead heat, that's as accurate as we can get...

and Obama's actions don't speak of a candidate who thinks he's got a big lead... they look like a guy who is in panic mode, seeing numbers he doesn't like... and that was confirmed for me, when it was brought up on one of the weekend political weekly talk shows... I said, I thought the same exact thing... If Obama supposedly has a big lead, why is he so jumpy and skittery lately, and acting like he's in a dogfight... He must know he is actually in one...

So in Wisconsin, polls are released which show a huge lead for Obama... yet, Obama goes out of his way to go to the state for the first time in what was quoted as iirc 23 months... why would he be doing that, if the polls showed a huge lead? they don't... the MSM polls do, but the MSM favors Democrats, and technological able people (which leaves out older people, who typically vote more conservative)...


I'm not gonna trust my gut, I'm gonna trust the internal polling numbers of the campaign... which seem to reflect a dead heat right now... with perhaps a slight 1-3 pt lead for Obama... ahead of the debates, that Obama is expected to trounce Romney in... I'll take those odds...

Romney going into the debates with low expectations could favor him.

Fisher said:

Romney going into the debates with low expectations could favor him.

Click to expand...

Romney will crush Obama in the debates, as long as the liberal media moderators ask questions of substance.

As for the polls, I've heard several long time political campaign veterans say that they have never seen such skewed and inaccurate public polling, as they have this election season. Personally, I hope it continues and the democrat voters keep thinking they have this one in the bag right up to election day.


[video=youtube;37HjVRnzcOE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=37HjVRnzcOE[/video]

It funny, they're already tyring to lower the expectations of Obama's performance. I heard it three times yesterday between CNN and Fox that "Obama hasn't debated anyone since John McCain."

My guess, Obama's internals are probably similar to Romney's. His campaign is acting as if it's a dead heat, which likely means he is. Even these polls showing an "Obama Lead" contain that info if you dig into them. Romney is up or even with independents in every swing state.

I read in some link somebody posted on this site that Romney's internals have Obama with a 1-3% lead nationally which would be within the margin of error, so it does appear to be a dead heat. Obama also doesn't take questions at press conferences often so that makes him pretty rusty too.

Fisher said:

I read in some link somebody posted on this site that Romney's internals have Obama with a 1-3% lead nationally which would be within the margin of error, so it does appear to be a dead heat. Obama also doesn't take questions at press conferences often so that makes him pretty rusty too.

Click to expand...

You mean the hardlined questions from The View, Leno or Letterman doesn't count?

IndepCentristMA said:

After SC, it was said Romney was dead, and that Newt Gingrich had this huge lead.... and then went into the voting, and the friday before FL's vote it had a dead heat or gingrich up 5 in most polls... Romney won FL by 15 pts...

Click to expand...

First, Primary polling is HARD. Way harder than general election polling. Turnout is lower, you don’t have strong party ID mental barriers to slow down switching between candidates, and the candidates are in the process of making themselves known. That makes Primary races more volatile, and thus harder to nail.

Next, for your example Florida is off. There may have been wags and early polls talking up Gingrich but the publicly available polling did show a very hard and fast break towards Romney (after a huge ad flood of the state) before the vote. So that Romney carried the state was absolutely no surprise to anyone paying attention to the data. The magnitude wasn’t shown in that polling directly but that isn’t surprising given the fast movement and the lag inherent in polling, that will give overshoot from the last polling snapshot.

EDIT: Oh, BTW I just went back and to triple check my memory and turns out the public data coupled with solid analysis was even better at predicting the Florida Primary than I recalled.

6:11 P.M. Historically, Florida Is a Blowout
If FiveThirtyEight’s Florida projection is in the ballpark, Mitt Romney will win the state by about 15 percentage points. That’s a sizable victory. But historically, it’s relatively close.

Click to expand...

So, yeah…

Fisher said:

I read in some link somebody posted on this site that Romney's internals have Obama with a 1-3% lead nationally which would be within the margin of error, so it does appear to be a dead heat.

Click to expand...

Being within the 95% confidence does NOT make it a dead heat. The reason is that there the range of confidence goes in both directions, thus there is much lower chance of the real number being a tie than the real number having Obama out ahead.

What you are doing is in effect a rounding bias.

yeah.....even that liberal and biased left leaning FoxNews has skewed their numbers to show Obama leading. What is up with all of this biased Mainstream media?

Dwight said:

Being within the 95% confidence does NOT make it a dead heat. The reason is that there the range of confidence goes in both directions, thus there is much lower chance of the real number being a tie than the real number having Obama out ahead.

What you are doing is in effect a rounding bias.

Click to expand...

What I am doing is expecting it to be an irrelevant statistic because the EC count matters more than the national polling numbers.

Dwight said:

First, Primary polling is HARD. Way harder than general election polling. Turnout is lower, you don’t have strong party ID mental barriers to slow down switching between candidates, and the candidates are in the process of making themselves known. That makes Primary races more volatile, and thus harder to nail.

Next, for your example Florida is off. There may have been wags and early polls talking up Gingrich but the publicly available polling did show a very hard and fast break towards Romney (after a huge ad flood of the state) before the vote. So that Romney carried the state was absolutely no surprise to anyone paying attention to the data. The magnitude wasn’t shown in that polling directly but that isn’t surprising given the fast movement and the lag inherent in polling, that will give overshoot from the last polling snapshot.

EDIT: Oh, BTW I just went back and to triple check my memory and turns out the public data coupled with solid analysis was even better at predicting the Florida Primary than I recalled.



So, yeah…

Click to expand...

LMFAO..... I'm wondering what the purpose of your post even was...

First off, I did not give the example of FL... I gave the example of FL, MI, and OH... same case every time...

You point out that 538 predicted Romney as the winner by 15 at 6pm on the day of the actual vote... big deal... Then you say well it was historically close (big deal), or that the trend swung in Romney's favor as the election drew closer...

The point is still, polls 2 weeks ahead of the vote had Newt by 10 points... and Romney won by 15...

In MI sweatervest lead by 10 pts 1 week out... In Ohio sweatervest lead by 21 pts 1 month out... each time Romney's camp stuck to their internal polling numbers and those were the ones that proved most accurate...

That same process was repeated every time, as MSM polls continued to bias against Romney...


So, what you're saying is, it's hard to predict races, and that Romney's internal polling numbers reflected the ultimate numbers ahead of what the MSM pollers were able to realize?

Okay... fair enough... I'll go with that... SINCE IT'S ALREADY WHAT I SAID!!!


Now, please falsely try to disprove that the debates swing popular polling numbers, and are still when most voters tend to make their decision final....

disneydude said:

yeah.....even that liberal and biased left leaning FoxNews has skewed their numbers to show Obama leading. What is up with all of this biased Mainstream media?

Click to expand...

The FOX News and CNN polling numbers were consistently anti-Romney during the primary process... and that has not changed...

The Rassmussen and Gallup numbers haven't wavered in keeping this a close race throughout the entire process...

IndepCentristMA said:

The FOX News and CNN polling numbers were consistently anti-Romney during the primary process... and that has not changed...

The Rassmussen and Gallup numbers haven't wavered in keeping this a close race throughout the entire process...

Click to expand...

Wow...are you saying that left leaning and skewed FoxNews is anti-Romney? Damn that mainstream media.

cpwill said:

I"m sorry, but the notion that Democrats advantage in 2012 will be larger than their advantage in 2008 is ridiculous.

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2008 republican enthusiasm was the result of the Tea Party, which is all but a distant memory for most of the country.

JRog said:

2008 republican enthusiasm was the result of the Tea Party, which is all but a distant memory for most of the country.

Click to expand...

.....you may want to check out what you just said.

disneydude said:

Wow...are you saying that left leaning and skewed FoxNews is anti-Romney? Damn that mainstream media.

Click to expand...

No, I am suggesting that FOX News and CNN polls have consistently been anti-Romney... all throughout this entire race...

Perhaps the anti-Mormon sentiment in the the bible belt and the reserved fears that Romney isn't an ultra social conservative may not be appealing to many of their normal polled participants, but that reside in states that are heavily in the Romney column...

Perhaps, they are using liberally biased data...

I don't know the reasoning, but their polls have persistently been anti-Romney all election process long...

LOL I am seeing more Tea Party stuff than I am from either campaign in my neck of the swing state woods.

IndepCentristMA said:

No, I am suggesting that FOX News and CNN polls have consistently been anti-Romney... all throughout this entire race...

Perhaps the anti-Mormon sentiment in the the bible belt and the reserved fears that Romney isn't an ultra social conservative may not be appealing to many of their normal polled participants, but that reside in states that are heavily in the Romney column...

Perhaps, they are using liberally biased data...

I don't know the reasoning, but their polls have persistently been anti-Romney all election process long...

Click to expand...

I appreciate that Fox was not a Romney fan in the primaries...but I have a hard time buying that Fox has been anti-Romney since he wrapped up the nomination.

IndepCentristMA said:

their polls have persistently been anti-Romney all election process long...

Click to expand...

Anti-Romney or accurate?

disneydude said:

I appreciate that Fox was not a Romney fan in the primaries...but I have a hard time buying that Fox has been anti-Romney since he wrapped up the nomination.

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Their polls have been further to the left than even many left leaning polls... Not just Fox either CNN as well...

I think the importance of polls are way overblown. They will continue to bounce up and down until Election Day. The debates will go a long way in deciding who wins...

IndepCentristMA said:

Their polls have been further to the left than even many left leaning polls... Not just Fox either CNN as well...

Click to expand...

That doesn't mean that they are biased. In fact, coming from FoxNews I have a hard time believing that they would be so "Anti-Romney" that they would go against every fiber of their network and be biased in favor of Romney. That simply defies logic.

This latest poll denial business is totally insane. I don't know why I'm surprised. It's small potatos compared to the Republican global warming denial lunacy.

So FYI, this is what's going on here: some folks on the right realized that Romney is going downhill fast. The realized that if they didn't do something fast it could have a real impact on his already flagging fundraising, and also impact early voting which starts soon in some states. Solution? Just invent a whacko theory that the poll results aren't reeeaaally the poll results! After all, the base has already shown itself willing to reject SCIENCE, and is already convinced that the only people who tell the truth are far right wing talking heads. So hey ... why not?! The polls are fake (wink wink)!

Something is seriously broken in the conervatives' collective head.